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LU9DCE > ALERT 31.03.19 07:01z 120 Lines 6032 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 20776_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 31 03
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190331/0700Z 20776@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230
AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2019
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected over the U.S. Today.
...Discussion...
Split flow pattern will persist over the U.S. today. A synoptic
upper trough will move through the Ohio Valley and Northeast States,
while a southern-stream shortwave trough moves from the Four Corners
region this morning to west TX by 12Z Monday. A low-amplitude
shortwave trough now approaching northern Mexico will continue
through south TX today and the Gulf coast region tonight. Surface
low accompanying the synoptic upper trough will move into southeast
Canada this morning, while trailing cold front continues east,
moving off the Atlantic Seaboard this afternoon. The southwest
extension of this boundary should stall over the northwestern Gulf.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will remain possible this morning
into a part of the afternoon along the cold front within the weakly
unstable environment from the Carolinas into a portion of the Gulf
Coast states. Farther west, other isolated thunderstorms will be
possible in association with steeper mid-level lapse rates and
ascent accompanying the southern-stream shortwave trough over the
Four Corners region today, reaching west TX tonight. Numerous post
frontal showers will likely occur from south TX to along the Gulf
Coast region in association with the low-amplitude shortwave trough,
but limited instability suggests any thunderstorm activity should
remain sparse.
..Dial/Wendt.. 03/31/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204
AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2019
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected near the Gulf
Coast and across parts of the western US.
...Gulf Coast...
Strong mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to eject across TX to
AL/FL Panhandle region by the end of the day2 period. Exit region
of associated jet will encourage a corridor of focused ascent from
south-central TX along the Gulf Coast into southern GA, primarily
well north of a synoptic front that will settle into the Gulf basin
Sunday. Forecast soundings suggest convection that evolves along
this corridor will be elevated within a weakly buoyant environment.
...Western US...
High-level diffluent flow aloft will spread across the western US
ahead of a short-wave trough that will shift into CA after 02/06z.
Steepening mid-level lapse rates and increasing large-scale forcing
for ascent should result in weak scattered convection spreading
across northern CA into NV. Within this activity a few lightning
strikes may be observed with the strongest updrafts.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Darrow.. 03/31/2019
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138
AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2019
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY... Severe threat will increase across the Florida
Peninsula Tuesday morning into mid afternoon.
...FL Peninsula...
Strong short-wave trough will approach the FL Peninsula early
in the day3 period. Large-scale forcing for ascent will spread
across the eastern Gulf basin ahead of this feature and a plume of
higher PW and buoyancy is forecast to spread across the peninsula
early Tuesday. Most significant destabilization will occur prior to
deepening westerly flow ahead of a pronounced cold front. Latest NAM
model guidance suggests mid-upper 60s surface dew points will return
to regions south of a stalled synoptic front. This should result in
ample surface-based instability for robust thunderstorm development.
Forecast soundings suggest environmental shear/buoyancy will prove
favorable for organized rotating updrafts and possible supercell
development. The introduction of 5% severe probs appears warranted to
account for early-day supercell threat that should linger into the
mid afternoon hours. Westerly flow is expected to deepen/strengthen
ahead of a surging cold front as surface low refocuses off the
northern FL Atlantic coast.
..Darrow.. 03/31/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2019
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Current satellite moisture channel imagery shows a
developing upper-level cyclone over the Four Corners. This feature
will eventually accelerate southeastward into the southern High
Plains today. The cool/moist polar airmass in place at the surface
ahead of the shortwave trough will help to limit fire weather
concerns as RH values over areas of dry fuels in the southern Plains
will generally remain above 20%.
..Wendt.. 03/31/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Q: How does a hacker fix a function which
doesn't work for all of the elements in its domain?
A: He changes the domain.
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