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LU9DCE > ALERT 03.01.22 02:00z 79 Lines 3666 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 978_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 02-ENE.22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 220103/0130Z 978@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Sun, 02 Jan 2022
14:55:02 +0000 Sun, 02 Jan 2022 14:55:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 2 14:55:02 UTC 2022 No
watches are valid as of Sun Jan 2 14:55:02 UTC 2022. Sun, 02
Jan 2022 14:54:06 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sun Jan 2 14:55:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jan 2
14:55:02 UTC 2022. Sun, 02 Jan 2022 14:54:05 +0000
SPC Jan 2, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1300Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 AM
CST Sun Jan 02 2022
Valid 021300Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST/CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes, and isolated
large hail are possible across parts of the Southeast and Carolinas
today through tonight.
...Southeast AL area today to the eastern Carolinas overnight...
A pre-frontal band of convection has sagged southeastward overnight
across southeast MS, central/southern AL, north GA, and the Piedmont
of the Carolinas. This convection is well ahead of the stronger
synoptic cold front/Arctic air mass now surging across the lower MS
Valley and northwest Gulf of Mexico. This pre-frontal band may
continue to focus convection during the day from southeast AL into GA,
where gradual cooling aloft (2-3 C cooling in the 700-400 mb layer
compared to current profiles) and a little low-level
warming/moistening will contribute to MLCAPE increasing to 1500-2000
J/kg by late afternoon. Given the continued strong deep-layer
vertical shear, the stronger storms from southeast AL into southwest
GA will be capable of producing damaging winds, isolated large hail,
and perhaps a tornado or two.
The primary cyclogenesis will occur tonight from west
central/southwest GA into the Carolinas (likely moving along the
residual pre-frontal convective boundary), in response increasing
height falls aloft with the amplifying midlevel trough. Related
increases in forcing for ascent, low-level warm/moist advection, and
strengthening vertical shear (both deep-layer shear and low-level
hodograph curvature) should be sufficient to support convection
persisting overnight night in a broken band along or just ahead of the
synoptic cold front and near the deepening surface cyclone. Buoyancy
will be somewhat limited overnight (MLCAPE near 500 J/kg) from
southeast GA into the coastal plains of the Carolinas, but effective
bulk shear of 60-70 kt and effective SRH near 300 m2/s2 will favor
embedded supercells and/or line segments capable of producing damaging
gusts and a couple of tornadoes.
..Thompson/Kerr.. 01/02/2022
Read more
Sun, 02 Jan 2022 12:38:15 +0000
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