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LU9DCE > ALERT 05.01.22 22:39z 144 Lines 5818 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1107_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 05-ENE.22
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<PY2BIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 220105/2230Z 1107@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Wed, 05 Jan 2022
10:37:02 +0000 Wed, 05 Jan 2022 10:37:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 5 10:37:02 UTC 2022 No
watches are valid as of Wed Jan 5 10:37:02 UTC 2022. Wed, 05
Jan 2022 10:36:06 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Wed Jan 5 10:37:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 5
10:37:02 UTC 2022. Wed, 05 Jan 2022 10:36:05 +0000
SPC Jan 5, 2022 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM
CST Wed Jan 05 2022
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely across the contiguous states on Friday.
...Synopsis...
A strong upper trough will exist over the Mid Atlantic on Friday,
moving quickly across the Northeast. To the west, temporary zonal flow
will develop over the Plains as a weaker upper trough moves across the
Great Basin.
At the surface, a sprawling high will be centered over the MS Valley,
shifting east through the period and resulting in stable conditions.
Offshore flow will exist over the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic, though
60s F dewpoints will approach the TX Coast by early Saturday in
advance of the western trough. A few thunderstorms may occur over the
western Gulf of Mexico Friday night, and are currently expected to
remain offshore. Otherwise, instability is not expected to favor
thunderstorms over the CONUS.
..Jewell.. 01/05/2022
Read more
Wed, 05 Jan 2022 07:00:59 +0000
SPC Jan 5, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332
AM CST Wed Jan 05 2022
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move across the Rockies on
Saturday/D4, emerging into the Plains on Sunday/D5. This will occur as
a strong upper trough amplifies across the northern Plains and Great
Lakes. The initial trough will quickly become absorbed by the larger
amplification, which will continue through Monday/D6 before departing
the northeastern states after Tuesday/D7.
During the Saturday/D4 to Sunday/D5 period, southerly winds will
result in increasing moisture from eastern TX across the lower MS
Valley, and widespread rain and thunderstorms are forecast. Mid to
upper 60s F dewpoints will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE ahead of
a developing cold front. This front will especially surge on
Sunday/D5, and will likely undercut convection as it develops. While
strengthening mid/upper flow will lead to favorable shear,
predictability for anything more than low-end severe is low given the
aforementioned weak instability and surging cold front. By Monday/D6,
the front will clear the southeastern states, resulting in drying
conditions.
Read more
Wed, 05 Jan 2022 09:34:57 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147
AM CST Wed Jan 05 2022
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Strong mid-level flow will linger across much of the central and
western US from the rear flank of a broad cyclonic gyre across the
East. A weak cold front will move south, reaching central Texas early
this morning, as a second stronger front quickly approaches this
evening and overnight. The influx of cold air will moderate
temperatures and increase humidity values across much of the central
and southern Plains. Despite gusty west winds enhanced by momentum
transport from the strong flow aloft, the misalignment of gusty
surface winds and dry surface conditions should keep fire weather
concerns low through much of the forecast period. A few hours of
locally elevated conditions may develop in the lee of the southern
Rockies across portions of eastern NM where lower humidity may hold
out longer. However, confidence in this scenario is low.
..Lyons.. 01/05/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Wed, 05 Jan 2022 07:49:28 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150
AM CST Wed Jan 05 2022
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Stronger flow aloft will begin to lift northward away from the central
and southern CONUS as troughing is amplified to the east and sub
tropical ridging develops across the Southwest. At the surface, high
pressure will strengthen in the post frontal airmass across the
central CONUS. The cold and stable airmass will limit the potential
overlap of strong surface winds and low humidity across much of the
US. As such, fire weather concerns are minimal through the forecast
period.
..Lyons.. 01/05/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Wed, 05 Jan 2022 07:52:27 +0000
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