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LU9DCE > ALERT 03.04.19 07:02z 114 Lines 6072 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 20929_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 03 04
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190403/0700Z 20929@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227
AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2019
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms may develop from the
eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma this afternoon
and evening, and possibly overnight across eastern Oklahoma into
Arkansas, northeast Texas and northern Louisiana. Large hail will
be the primary risk.
...Eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma...
Modified continental-polar air with upper 40s to around 50F dewpoints
will advect through the pre-frontal warm sector as far northwest
as the eastern TX Panhandle. Meanwhile, warmer air at the base of
an elevated mixed layer will advect eastward, effectively capping
the boundary layer most of today. It is likely that some stratus
will accompany the return of low-level moisture, but some cloud
breaks are likely during the day. A shortwave trough now moving
into the Great Basin will reach the southern High Plains by late
afternoon accompanied by an increase in southwesterly winds aloft
that will augment dryline mixing and convergence over the eastern
TX Panhandle. This narrow zone of forcing for ascent and weakening
convective inhibition will likely contribute to the development of
a few storms by early evening. Vertical wind profiles with 45-55 kt
0-6 km shear will support supercell structures with primary threat
being large hail. While 0-2 km hodographs will become sufficient
for low-level mesocyclones, the limited low-level moisture will
promote less than optimal LFCs for a more robust tornado threat,
though a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Otherwise initial
surface-based storms will weaken as they encounter stronger SBCIN
across western Oklahoma during the evening.
...Central and eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas, northeast Texas and
northern Louisiana...
With the dryline and deeper forcing for ascent remaining west of
this area today, the atmosphere will likely remain capped to surface
based storms. However, a strengthening warm advection regime with
50+ kt low-level jet and arrival of deeper forcing for ascent
accompanying the shortwave trough should promote development of
elevated storms over central through eastern OK and the lower MS
Valley overnight. Theta-e advection with the southerly low-level
flow regime beneath the eastward expanding elevated-mixed layer will
result in 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE, and a few vigorous but elevated
updrafts could produce hail, especially given sufficient effective
bulk shear for a few storms to acquire updraft rotation.
...Southeast Colorado through southwest Kansas...
Despite limited low-level moisture with dewpoints generally in the
30s F, at least marginal instability is expected over the High Plains
of southeast CO into southwest KS promoted by diabatic heating of
the surface layer and steep mid level lapse rates. High based storms
are expected to develop over the mountains with arrival of deeper
forcing for ascent attending the shortwave trough. This activity
will subsequently spread into the high plains, posing a risk for
isolated strong wind gusts and some hail from late afternoon into
early evening.
..Dial/Wendt.. 04/03/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228
AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2019
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... Severe threat is expected to focus across the lower
Mississippi Valley Thursday.
...Lower MS Valley...
Progressive short-wave trough is forecast to eject across the
southern Rockies into OK/north TX by 04/12z. This feature should
dislodge a lee trough off the southern High Plains to a position
from southwestern AR into central TX by late afternoon. Early in
the period, exit region of mid-level speed max is expected to focus
ascent across eastern OK/AR. Aided by low-level warm advection,
clusters of elevated convection are expected to spread east
along nose of southwesterly LLJ. Hail may accompany the strongest
elevated convection as steep mid-level lapse rates should advect
into this region ahead of the short wave. During the day, higher
boundary-layer moisture should advance into the ArkLaTex region which
should enhance the prospect for potential surface-based thunderstorms
near the aforementioned boundary draped across this region. However,
short-wave trough quickly shifts east of this region and timing
is not particularly favorable for late afternoon support along the
southwest-northeast oriented boundary. For these reasons it appears
low-level warm advection may be the primary forcing mechanism
for potential strong/severe thunderstorm development through the
period. Strong wind fields suggest rotating storms are possible
and isolated supercells may be noted within a broader convective
precip shield.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight
..Darrow.. 04/03/2019
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Repartee is something we think of twenty-four hours too late.
-- Mark Twain
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