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LU9DCE > ALERT 16.01.22 21:42z 230 Lines 9882 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1681_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 16-ENE22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<PY2BIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 220116/2131Z 1681@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us
None spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Sun, 16 Jan 2022
10:50:01 +0000 Sun, 16 Jan 2022 10:50:01 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 16 10:50:02 UTC
2022 No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 16 10:50:02 UTC 2022.
Sun, 16 Jan 2022 10:49:06 +0000
SPC MD 73 MD 0073 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH
UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN FLORIDA COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 0073 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CST Sun Jan 16 2022
Areas affected...Western Florida Coast
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 160955Z - 161200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A marginal wind-damage threat is expected to develop as
a line of storms reaches the west coast of Florida.
DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Tampa shows a line
of storms extending to about 30 statute miles to the northwest of
Tampa Bay. The line of storms is located along a pre-frontal surface
trough where low-level convergence is maximized. Surface dewpoints
ahead of the line along the western coast of Florida range from
the upper 50s north of Tampa to the lower to mid lower 60s F to the
south of Tampa. This is contributing to weak destabilization along
the coast with the RAP showing MLCAPE near 250 J/kg. In addition,
the WSR-88D VWP has a strong wind profile with 0-6 km shear near 70
kt. This along with south winds near 50 kt just above the surface
should support a marginal wind-damage threat as the line moves
onshore within the next couple of hours. Also, the WSR-88D VWP at
Tampa has 0-1 km storm-relative helicity near 400 m2/s2 suggesting
a brief tornado could also be possible. The airmass is more stable
inland away from the coast which will limit the eastward extent of
the severe potential.
..Broyles/Edwards.. 01/16/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TBW...
LAT...LON 28768227 28928250 28928275 28708283 28448290 28178295
27838297 27448286 27188269 27008248 27248213 27948234
28508225 28768227
Read more
Sun, 16 Jan 2022 09:56:02 +0000
SPC MD 72 MD 0072 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA PIEDMONT
Mesoscale Discussion 0072 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 AM CST Sun Jan 16 2022
Areas affected...Southern Appalachians...North Carolina and Virginia
Piedmont
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 160902Z - 161500Z
SUMMARY...Snowfall rates exceeding one inch per hour will be possible
across parts of the southern Appalachian Mountains this morning.
DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor-imagery shows an upper-level
low moving eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley. Ahead
of the low, mid-level moisture is streaming northeastward across
Tennessee, Georgia and the Carolinas, where widespread precipitation
is ongoing. Surface temperatures within the area of precipitation
are mostly above freezing. The exception is along the northern
edge of the precipitation from northern South Carolina into western
North Carolina where surface temperatures have dropped to near or
just below freezing. In response, precipitation has changed over to
snow across much of the southern Appalachians, especially from the
Appalachian crest eastward. As the upper-level low moves eastward
across the central Gulf Coast states, large-scale ascent will
increase across the southern Appalachians. In response, bands of
heavy snowfall will likely develop. Snowfall rates could exceed one
inch per hour from far northeast Georgia into the western Carolinas
and far eastern Tennessee. Later this morning, heavy snow will also
be possible in western Virginia.
..Broyles/Edwards.. 01/16/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...FFC...
LAT...LON 34668450 35468417 36108347 36718261 37018202 37278074
37077990 36827915 36487891 36137897 35767931 35118081
34368265 34058346 34068395 34188427 34398446 34668450
Read more
Sun, 16 Jan 2022 09:03:03 +0000
SPC Jan 16, 2022 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100
AM CST Sun Jan 16 2022
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous
United States on Tuesday.
...Synopsis and Discussion... A large area of surface high pressure
should be centered over the Southeast Tuesday morning, with meager
low-level moisture over the CONUS. As one upper trough continues
to advance eastward over the western Atlantic and the Canadian
Maritimes, an upstream perturbation is forecast to gradually
amplify as it moves over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest
through the period. A separate, low-amplitude shortwave trough
should develop from the Great Basin/Southwest to the southern
Plains by late Tuesday night. A weak surface low related to this
southern-stream feature and a gradually strengthening low-level jet
Tuesday night will encourage some modest moisture return northward
from the western Gulf of Mexico across parts of coastal TX into the
lower MS Valley. Even with these developments, both the low-level
moisture and related instability are expected to be too meager to
support thunderstorms through the end of the period.
..Gleason.. 01/16/2022
Read more
Sun, 16 Jan 2022 07:03:05 +0000
SPC Jan 16, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CST Sun Jan 16 2022
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough
should move eastward from the southern Plains across the lower MS
Valley on Day 4/Wednesday. Medium-range guidance remains in good
agreement that modest but sufficient low-level moisture should return
northward ahead of a cold front from parts of the TX Coast into the
lower MS Valley to support surface-based storms. Although instability
is forecast to be relatively weak (MUCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg),
deep-layer shear should be strong enough to support some updraft
organization. At this point, the overall severe potential still
appears fairly isolated/marginal for Day 4/Wednesday owing to the
limited instability. But, low severe probabilities may need to be
included in a later outlook for portions of the Upper TX Coast into
LA/MS if current model trends continue.
Little thunderstorm potential is evident across the CONUS on Day
5/Thursday. There are substantial differences in deterministic
guidance regarding the placement and evolution of an upper trough
over the central/eastern states by Day 6/Friday. The past couple
runs of the ECMWF show a much more amplified upper trough over the
Southeast and Gulf of Mexico in this time frame compared to the GFS.
If the more amplified solution occurs, then low-level moisture may
return northward over parts of the FL Peninsula by Friday night
as the low/mid-level wind fields likewise strengthen. Too much
uncertainty currently exists to suggest that an organized severe
threat will develop across this region on Day 6/Friday, but trends
will be monitored. Thereafter, thunderstorm potential appears low
next weekend.
Read more
Sun, 16 Jan 2022 08:03:57 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CST Sun Jan 16 2022
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will quickly progress from the
northern Rockies into the lower Mississippi Valley today. Weak
surface troughing will occur in the southern Plains as a result. A
dry airmass will still be present across the southern High Plains
region. Though winds are expected to remain weak, a few areas of
locally elevated fire weather may occur around terrain features.
..Wendt.. 01/16/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Sun, 16 Jan 2022 06:54:28 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Sun Jan 16 2022
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Weak shortwave ridging will break down during the
day on Monday across the Four Corners. Modest to moderate mid-level
northwesterly winds across the Divide will promote some degree of lee
troughing during the afternoon in the High Plains. The airmass across
the region should remain quite dry. Areas of locally elevated fire
weather conditions will be possible from east-central New Mexico
into the Texas Panhandle. Given the generally weak lee trough as
well as potential for high-level clouds to decrease boundary-layer
mixing, such conditions are expected to remain localized and brief.
..Wendt.. 01/16/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Sun, 16 Jan 2022 06:56:30 +0000
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