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LU9DCE > ALERT 29.01.22 15:00z 115 Lines 4947 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2674_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 29-ENE22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 220129/1430Z 2674@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us
None spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Sat, 29 Jan 2022
01:46:02 +0000 Sat, 29 Jan 2022 01:46:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 29 01:46:02 UTC
2022 No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 29 01:46:02 UTC 2022.
Sat, 29 Jan 2022 01:45:05 +0000
SPC MD 95 MD 0095 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR
PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHEASTERN
VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN MARYLAND...DELAWARE...COASTAL NEW JERSEY
AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0095 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 PM CST Fri Jan 28 2022
Areas affected...Parts of northeastern North Carolina...southeastern
Virginia...southern Maryland...Delaware...coastal New Jersey and
eastern Long Island
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 290144Z - 290445Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snow appears likely to develop near northern Mid
Atlantic coastal areas through late evening. This may include
increasingly sustained rates in excess of 1 inch per hour near
southern New Jersey coastal areas and eastern Long Island by around
midnight EST.
DISCUSSION...Consolidating, amplified mid-level troughing is
gradually turning east of the Mississippi Valley, and taking on a
more neutral tilt as it approaches the Appalachians. Large-scale
ascent beneath increasingly difluent flow downstream of this feature
is contributing to increasing precipitation near and offshore of
Mid Atlantic coastal areas, where a substantial cooling in mid-level
cloud tops is evident is latest satellite imagery. Through 03-06Z,
upper divergence is forecast to continue to intensify near or
just east of the northern Mid Atlantic region, as a smaller scale
perturbation begins to emerge from the base of the larger-scale
troughing. An already intensifying offshore cyclone may begin to
deepen more rapidly while continuing to migrate northward near the
Gulf Stream (east-northeast of the North Carolina coast).
On the northwestern periphery of the expanding and intensifying
precipitation shield, thermodynamic profiles are generally
sub-freezing and supportive of snow. While it appears that
a developing band of heavier snow will mostly remain offshore,
immediate coastal areas probably will be impacted. This may include
areas as far south as the Virginia/North Carolina Tidewater vicinity,
where low levels remain above freezing, but will fall toward freezing
during the next few hours in response to evaporation of precipitation
and cold advection.
With precipitable water near or in excess of .5 inches, and lower/mid
tropospheric frontogenesis likely to increase lift within layers
favorably cold for large dendritic ice crystal growth, snow rates
of 1/2 to 1+ inch per hour may become more common. It appears
that stronger mid-level frontogenetic forcing may begin to support
more sustained rates in excess of 1 inch per hour along New Jersey
coastal areas and across parts of eastern Long Island toward 05-06Z.
..Kerr.. 01/29/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...
LAT...LON 36507607 37357641 38187588 39677470 40797286 40457160
37537459 37077512 36687552 36507607
Read more
Sat, 29 Jan 2022 01:45:02 +0000
SPC Jan 29, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 0100Z
Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637
PM CST Fri Jan 28 2022
Valid 290100Z - 291200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. through
tonight.
...Synopsis... A mid-level trough over the OH Valley/Southeast
will move to the eastern states by daybreak Saturday as a coupled
upper-level jet structure evolves over the western Atlantic. In the
low levels, a surface low undergoing bombogenesis will move from
well east of the Carolinas north-northeastward and well offshore the
NJ coast by Saturday morning. Aside from precipitation associated
with the Nor'easter, cool/stable conditions will prevail over much
of the remainder of the Lower 48.
..Smith.. 01/29/2022
Read more
Sat, 29 Jan 2022 00:41:49 +0000
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