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LU9DCE > ALERT 04.04.19 11:32z 85 Lines 4376 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 20963_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 04 04
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190404/1131Z 20963@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SOPORTE TECNICO - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138
AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2019
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TX INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... Broad corridor of potential severe will be noted
across Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, and southeast Oklahoma. Hail,
wind, and tornadoes are possible. A few strong storms may also
develop across the central High Plains.
...TX to Mid-South...
Low-latitude short-wave trough is forecast to eject across northern
Mexico into south-central TX by the start of the day3 period. Latest
NAM and FV3 agree on the general timing of this feature, though
the FV3 is a bit farther north. Considerable amount of convection
is expected Friday night across portions of TX and storms will
likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period. Latest thinking
is steepest mid-level lapse rates will be overturned Friday night
into Saturday morning but ample moisture/buoyancy will lift north
across the ArkLaTex as a warm front advances north in response
to the ejecting short wave. Strong 500mb speed max is forecast to
translate across central TX into AR which will encourage organized
convection and embedded supercells within a larger complex of
storms. Forecast soundings favor deep rotating updrafts and while
supercells should evolve, organized line segments may be common,
along with clusters due to warm advection. Overall, day3 convective
scenario appears complex and should generate a diversity of severe
threats, including hail, wind, and tornadoes.
...Central High Plains...
Modified boundary-layer moisture will return across the central High
Plains as a sharp lee trough/front materializes from south-central
SD into eastern CO by late afternoon. Latest guidance suggests
strong boundary-layer heating will be noted from the Black Hills
region into eastern NM. Heating near the surface trough should
allow surface parcels to reach their convective temperatures and
isolated thunderstorms are expected by late afternoon. Hail is the
primary risk with this diurnally driven convection.
..Darrow.. 04/04/2019
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2019
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION... Low-level trajectories will become more
favorable for the transport of moisture north across the Gulf
basin into the southern US into early next week. Models continue to
suggest an active southern stream that will undoubtedly encourage
deep convection and possible severe at times. Organized severe
thunderstorms are expected during the day3 period across TX into
the lower MS Valley. However, considerable convective overturning,
and the likelihood for poor short wave timing, lends to low
predictability early in the period. Even so, significant convection
may ultimately spread across the lower MS Valley into the central
Gulf States during the day4-5 time frame. Beyond day5, focus for deep
convection may shift into the central/southern Plains, especially
day7 when a potentially significant cyclone may evolve. However,
moisture quality is somewhat questionable for this event.
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Q: How many existentialists does it take to screw in a light bulb?
A: Two. One to screw it in and one to observe how the light bulb
itself symbolizes a single incandescent beacon of subjective reality
in a netherworld of endless absurdity reaching out toward a maudlin
cosmos of nothingness.
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