| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 02.02.22 15:00z 110 Lines 4743 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2831_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 02-FEB22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 220202/1330Z 2831@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 - Eduardo A. Castillo
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us
None spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Wed, 02 Feb 2022
01:22:02 +0000 Wed, 02 Feb 2022 01:22:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Wed Feb 2 01:22:02 UTC
2022 No watches are valid as of Wed Feb 2 01:22:02 UTC 2022.
Wed, 02 Feb 2022 01:21:05 +0000
SPC MD 102 MD 0102 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0102 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0720 PM CST Tue Feb 01 2022
Areas affected...Parts of north central Missouri into west central
Illinois
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 020120Z - 020515Z
SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow appears likely to develop late
this evening. This may include a developing band with peak hourly
rates on the order of 1-2 inches per hour between 9 PM and midnight.
DISCUSSION...As the center of a fairly broad and deep surface cyclone
migrates into and across the James Bay vicinity this evening, cold
surface ridging is in the process of nosing southward to the lee of
the Rockies, and eastward across the upper into middle Mississippi
Valley. The deepening leading edge of sub-freezing surface-based air
(including the surface through around 850 mb) is in the process of
advancing southward into portions of north central Missouri and west
central Illinois, likely including the Carrollton/Brunswick/Moberly
MO and Quincy IL areas within the next few hours.
Latest Rapid Refresh indicates that this will coincide with
strengthening lower/mid tropospheric frontogenetic forcing,
including through the 700-500 mb layer, where temperatures are
conducive to large dendritic ice crystal growth. Aided by forcing
for ascent beneath at least broadly divergent upper flow, forecast
soundings suggest that lift may become maximized within the dendritic
growth across north central Missouri by 02-03Z, before developing
northeastward toward west central Illinois through 06-07Z.
It appears that this will become focused along the gradient
of a plume of moisture emanating from the Gulf of Mexico, where
precipitable water values range from around .5-.75 inches. As the
surface-based sub-freezing layer deepens, a period of sleet may
precede the precipitation transition to snow, but forecast soundings
from recent runs of the Rapid Refresh, supported by output from
the 21Z NCEP SREF, suggest that at least a narrow corridor with
1-2 inch per hour snow rates could develop through 03-06Z.
..Kerr.. 02/02/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...
LAT...LON 39619381 40139259 40479136 40339063 39819075 39579105
39359181 39109254 38829321 39049372 39619381
Read more
Wed, 02 Feb 2022 01:20:03 +0000
SPC Feb 2, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 0100Z
Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635
PM CST Tue Feb 01 2022
Valid 020100Z - 021200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.
...01z Update...
Weak, southern-stream short-wave trough is progressing east across
the central Gulf Basin early this evening. This feature appears
to be partly responsible for earlier lightning activity along the
northern extent of warm advection convection that extended across
the northern Gulf toward the LA Gulf Coast. While low-level warm
advection, and associated weak convective clusters, continue; 00z
soundings from this region suggest the probability of lightning
is decreasing. Both LIX and LCH exhibit poor lapse rates above 3km
and subsidence is expected post short wave. Although showers will
linger near the MS Delta the prospect for lightning is low.
..Darrow.. 02/02/2022
Read more
Wed, 02 Feb 2022 00:40:39 +0000
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
+ AXIP IPV4 - MAP LU9DCE-4 LU9DCE-40880.PORTMAP.IO UDP 40880 B
+ AXIP IPV6 - MAP LU9DCE-4 LU9DCE.DYNU.COM UDP 10093 B
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
