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LU9DCE > ALERT 10.02.22 04:02z 121 Lines 5100 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3061_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 09-FEB.22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<VE3CGR<KA1VSC<LU9DCE
Sent: 220210/0301Z 3061@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
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Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Wed, 09 Feb 2022 17:16:01 +0000
Wed, 09 Feb 2022 17:16:01 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Wed Feb9 17:16:01 UTC 2022.
Wed, 09 Feb 2022 17:15:10 +0000
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Feb9 17:16:01 UTC 2022.
Wed, 09 Feb 2022 17:15:10 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Wed Feb 09 2022
Valid 091630Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through tonight.
...Synopsis/Discussion...
An amplified large-scale pattern will persist with the continuance
of mean longwave troughing east of the Rockies. The CONUS-wide
prevalence of cool/stable conditions will likely preclude
thunderstorm development. That said, a few thunderstorms will remain
a possibility offshore near a front near/just east of the Florida
Keys and south Florida.
Elsewhere, across the Ohio Valley, while low/mid-level lapse rates
will be rather steep ( 7 C/km) with daytime heating/mixing,
low-level moisture will be quite limited within the continental
polar air mass. The scenario should be insufficient for deep
convection/lightning this afternoon/early evening across northern
Kentucky and southern Ohio and vicinity.
..Guyer.. 02/09/2022
Read more
Wed, 09 Feb 2022 16:34:14 +0000
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CST Wed Feb 09 2022
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
on Thursday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Large-scale upper troughing will be maintained over much of the
central/eastern CONUS on Thursday, with multiple shorter wavelength
impulses moving generally eastward across this region. Due to a
prior frontal passage and surface high pressure remaining centered
over the Southeast and northern Gulf of Mexico, low-level moisture
is expected to remain quite meager over land. This will limit
instability and the potential for thunderstorms across the CONUS on
Thursday.
..Gleason.. 02/09/2022
Read more
Wed, 09 Feb 2022 17:03:57 +0000
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0958 AM CST Wed Feb 09 2022
Valid 091700Z - 101200Z
An Elevated area was added for parts of the northeastern TX
Panhandle, western and north-central OK, and south-central KS. Here,
clear skies and downslope flow should favor deep boundary-layer
mixing and RH reductions into the middle/upper teens to lower/middle
20s by this afternoon (based on modified AMA/DDC/OUN/LMN 12Z
soundings). While a weak pressure gradient should generally limit
sustained winds to around 10-15 mph across this area, a belt of fast
flow aloft should favor frequent wind gusts of 20-25 mph as the
boundary layer deepens to around 2-3 km. In addition, fuels are
favorable for the development and spread of wildfires over the area,
with ERCs in the 70th-80th percentile (aided by ongoing drought and
a lack of substantial precipitation). Elsewhere, the previous
forecast remains valid, with localized elevated conditions possible
over north-central KS and the TX South Plains (see below).
..Weinman.. 02/09/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Wed Feb 09 2022/
...Synopsis...
Broad mid-level troughing will dominate the upper pattern across the
central and eastern U.S. today as surface high pressure persists
across the inter-mountain West. This high pressure will spill into
the Plains states, fostering weak, dry northerly surface flow. Dry
offshore flow will also persist across California. In the Plains
states, fuels are very receptive to fire spread across most locales.
However, Elevated conditions are expected to remain localized given
the lack of a widespread, stronger surface wind field. The best
chance for any Elevated conditions would be across the central
Plains, where surface winds may exceed 15 mph and briefly coincide
with minimum RH around 20-25 percent by afternoon peak heating.
While winds will be weaker across western Texas, RH may drop into
the 10-15 percent range, supporting localized wildfire-spread
potential wherever gusty winds may occur.
Elevated to Critical meteorological surface conditions are expected
to accompany the offshore flow across southern California through
the day tomorrow. However, high fuel moisture will limit widespread
significant wildfire-spread potential.
Read more
Wed, 09 Feb 2022 15:59:28 +0000
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