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LU9DCE > ALERT 07.04.19 07:03z 278 Lines 15203 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 07 04
Path: HB9ON<IK7NXU<IK6IHL<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190407/0701Z 21075@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
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WW 40 SEVERE TSTM TX CW 070650Z - 071400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 40 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 AM CDT Sun Apr
7 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South central Texas
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Sunday morning from 150 AM until 900 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated
very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms over northeast Mexico will
move across the Rio Grande into south Texas through the early
morning hours, and the storms will become more organized with time.
The storm environment will initially favor large hail as the main
threat with embedded supercells, but damaging winds will become more
of a threat as the storms grow into a bowing line. An isolated
tornado or two cannot be ruled out with embedded supercell or
mesovortex circulations.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west of Laredo
TX to 30 miles south of Victoria TX. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
27025.
...Thompson
WW 0040 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0040 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
MD 0273 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR
SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0273 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2019
Areas affected...far south-central Nebraska into north-central KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 070643Z - 070745Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated hail near 1 inch in diameter will be possible
the next 1-2 hours as storms track southeast from south-central
Nebraska into north-central KS.
DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms may continue to pose a
marginally severe hail threat the next 1-2 hours as they track
southeast from far south-central NE into north-central KS. These
storms were occurring in an area of weak forcing associated with the
northern stream shortwave trough moving across the central Plains
and in the vicinity of a surface trough. Steep midlevel lapse
rates around 7-8 C/km per 00z regional RAOBs and weak elevated
instability will continue to support some stronger updrafts over
the next couple of hours. As the storms track further southeast,
they may encounter some subsidence on the back side of a MCV
currently over far southeast NE/northwest MO/southwest IA. The
impact of this subsidence is evident in surface dewpoints falling
into the mid 40s across central KS the last couple of hours. Given
the localized nature of the threat, and that storms are expected
to weaken in the next couple of hours, a watch is not expected.
..Leitman/Thompson.. 04/07/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...
LAT...LON 40429894 40309844 39959763 39549742 39249742 39099766
39139833 39419882 39759907 40179923 40429894
MD 0272 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0272 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2019
Areas affected...portions of southern TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 070600Z - 070730Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible
overnight into the early morning hours across much of southern
Texas as a cluster of storms in Mexico cross the Rio Grande and
shift eastward.
DISCUSSION...The severe threat will continue to increase overnight
as a cluster of storms over the higher terrain of Mexico shifts east
across parts of the Hill Country and points south. This convection is
being forced by increasing ascent as the southern stream shortwave
trough ejects over northern Mexico. The downstream environment is
characterized by a very moist boundary layer with upper 60s to low
70s dewpoints beneath midlevel lapse rates around 8-8.5 C/km. This
is resulting in MUCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg. Low level
easterly flow through the lowest 1km or so is relatively weak,
ranging from about 10-15 kt, but should increase slightly with
time. A quasi-stationary front is draped across the region from
northern Maverick County east/northeast into east-central TX. Hi-res
guidance suggests convection will organize and travel roughly along
and south of this boundary in the more pristine warm sector airmass.
Given very steep midlevel lapse rates, hail will be likely in
embedded stronger updrafts/supercells. Storm mode could temper a
more significant hail threat, though some very large hail cannot be
ruled out. While boundary layer inhibition is quite strong at this
point, strong forcing should be sufficient to weaken low level
inhibition sufficiently for some damaging wind threat as well.
Convection will track eastward across much of southern TX through
the overnight hours and a watch will be within the next hour or so.
..Leitman/Thompson.. 04/07/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...
LAT...LON 29639872 29629810 29469749 29079701 28759675 28489660
28239656 27969685 27659711 27429731 27249753 27139787 27159887
27259947 27589973 27799995 28080014 28270035 28610053 29080073
29260063 29460013 29639872
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250
AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2019
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS
EASTWARD ACROSS MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible today from the
eastern part of the Southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley
north-northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valleys.
...Synopsis... An upper trough crossing the central and northern
Plains shifting eastward, and second/southern stream trough/low
advancing east/northeast across northern Mexico and the southern
Plains, will continue progressing across the central third of the
country today, in a loosely phased manner. This trough will be
the main upper system crossing the U.S., with weak ridging flanking
the trough over the Southwest and Southeast.
At the surface, a low is expected to move northeast across the
Texas Coastal Plain vicinity as a surface reflection of the upper
center of circulation. Meanwhile, a very weak surface front
trailing southwestward from weak low pressure that will cross
the upper Mississippi Valley and move into the Upper Great Lakes,
is expected to cross the central Plains/Oklahoma through the day,
and into the Midwest later in the period. Ahead of this front, and
in advance of the Texas surface low, showers and thunderstorms --
and some risk for severe weather -- is expected.
...Southern Plains east to the central Gulf Coast States, and north
to the Ohio Valley States... A cluster of thunderstorms is forecast
to be ongoing over south Texas at the start of the period, ahead of
an evolving upper low moving east-northeast across the lower Rio
Grande Valley toward the Texas Hill Country early in the period.
As steep lapse rates associated with the low continue to overspread
a moist low-level airmass, a large zone of relatively abundant
instability (mixed-layer CAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range) will
likely fuel an expanding, arc-shaped band of storms that is expected
to spread northeastward across east Texas and into Louisiana/southern
Arkansas through the day, and then across the lower Mississippi and
Tennessee Valleys through the evening. With relatively strong --
but somewhat unidirectional/southerly flow through a deep layer
ahead of the convection, overall severe risk may be tempered to
some degree. Still, the degree of flow supports fast-moving storms,
and thus potential for locally damaging winds; steep lapse rates
aloft also suggest a risk for hail with stronger cells.
While this storm complex shifts northeastward, other/more isolated
storms are expected to develop farther north, near the weak
surface front crossing the Iowa/Missouri/eastern Oklahoma/north
Texas region through the afternoon. A few cells are also expected
farther east, into the Midwest/Ohio Valley region. Here, more modest
instability and muted low-level convergence/ascent is expected, but
amply strong westerly flow aloft suggests potential for organized
convection and isolated/local severe risk. Eventually, storms
spreading northeastward across the Tennessee Valley and convection
crossing the Ohio Valley may eventually merge into one large zone
of convection overnight, as severe risk gradually diminishes.
..Goss/Squitieri.. 04/07/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100
AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2019
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY... A few severe storms will be possible over the
Carolinas and Middle Atlantic area well as a the Southeast States
Monday with isolated damaging wind and some hail the main threats.
...Synopsis...
A split-flow regime will persist over the eastern Half of the U.S.
on Monday with primary feature of interest being a southern-stream
shortwave trough that should be situated over the lower MS Valley
Monday morning. This feature will move slowly through the Gulf Coast
states during the period. Farther north a low-amplitude shortwave
trough initially over the OH Valley will continue through the Middle
Atlantic region during the day. By 12Z a cold front will stretch
from a surface low over the lower Great Lakes southwest into the
lower MS Valley region. A warm front will extend southeast from
the low into the Northeast States.
...Carolinas through Middle Atlantic...
Greater potential for surface heating will exist east of the
Appalachians where the atmosphere may become moderately unstable
with MLCAPE from 1000-1500 J/kg. Current indications are that storms
will develop farther west across the OH and TN Valleys and continue
east into the destabilizing boundary layer where they may intensify.
Strongest winds aloft are expected in proximity to northern-stream
shortwave trough from NC into VA with 40-50 kt southwesterly winds in
the 2-6 km layer and effective bulk shear from 30-40 kt. This wind
profile would support potential for organized structures as storms
intensify east of the higher terrain including bowing segments and
embedded mesovortices with damaging wind the main threat.
...Southeast States...
The Southeast States will reside within the moist warm sector with
dewpoints from upper 60s F near the coast to low and mid 60s F over
the TN Valley. It is likely that widespread clouds with areas of
showers and storms will be ongoing over the western half of this
region. Mid-level lapse rates will remain weak to modest, but
pockets of heating could boost MLCAPE to 1000-1500 J/kg. Models
have come into better agreement regarding the evolution of the
southern-stream trough with an expected slow weakening trend and
slight positive tilt as it advances east. Modest wind profiles with
30-35 kt effective bulk shear should characterize the warm sector
over the Southeast States. Some redevelopment and intensification of
storms might occur where sufficient surface heating can destabilize
the boundary layer. Both multicells, and possibly some marginal
supercell structures will be possible with isolated damaging wind
the main threat.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Dial.. 04/07/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2019
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing and surface low pressure
will prevail across the central CONUS, with the western CONUS
experiencing upper-level ridging and associated surface high pressure
today. Weaker surface winds across much of the central/southern
CONUS, coupled with recent rainfall accumulations within the past
few days, will serve to dampen major fire weather concerns for this
portion of the country.
15-20 mph westerly downslope winds and occasionally near-critical
RH may occur across western portions of the Dakotas into eastern
Wyoming. Locally elevated conditions are possible across the area,
as patches of fine fuels may be marginally receptive to fire spread.
..Squitieri.. 04/07/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2019
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Ridging aloft, with surface high pressure, will
dominate the overall pattern across the central/south-central
CONUS for Day 2/Monday. A mid-level trough will translate across
the West Coast, entering the western Great Basin toward the end of
the period. The net result will be overall quiescent fire weather
conditions across the central/south-central and southwest CONUS
due to relatively weaker surface sustained winds. Locally elevated
conditions are possible in central New Mexico, with downslope
flow and critically low RH prevailing within the Estancia Valley
region. Still, recent rainfall within the past week will likely
serve to limit the receptiveness of fine fuels to fire spread.
..Squitieri.. 04/07/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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