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LU9DCE > ALERT 18.02.22 14:05z 99 Lines 4360 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3425_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 18-FEB.22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<GB7CIP<VE3KPG<N9PMO<VE3UIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 220218/1400Z 3425@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQK6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
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Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Fri, 18 Feb 2022 03:02:01 +0000
Fri, 18 Feb 2022 03:02:01 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 18 03:02:01 UTC 2022.
Fri, 18 Feb 2022 03:01:06 +0000
MD 0151 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO.
Mesoscale Discussion 0151
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0707 PM CST Thu Feb 17 2022
Areas affected...portions of lower Michigan northern Indiana and
northwest Ohio.
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 180107Z - 180600Z
SUMMARY...Moderate/heavy snow and occasional light mixed precip will
likely continue for a few more hours across portions of the Great
Lakes.
DISCUSSION...As of 0050 UTC, regional radar imagery depicted a broad
area of winter precipitation across parts of the Midwest and Great
Lakes. Associated with a broad cyclone and frontal zone across the
Ohio Valley, precipitation should continue moving to the north and
east over the next several hours. 00z RAOB from DTX and regional
model soundings show strong mid-level warm advection occurring
northwest of the surface front which should continue to support
moderate to occasionally heavy snow rates near 1 inch per hour
across portions of northern Indiana and eastern Lower Michigan.
Across parts of northwestern Ohio and far eastern Indiana, dry
mid-level air associated with the stronger flow aloft will support
the potential for freezing rain and sleet given the stronger warm
nose on model soundings. Dynamic cooling from expanding
precipitation to the southwest and deepening cold air at the surface
should eventually result in a full change over to snow across
northwestern Ohio. The latest hi-res model guidance estimates the
changeover should occur between 0200 and 0400 UTC though some very
light mixed precip may remain for a few hours given strong warm
advection and stubborn warm nose farther south and east.
..Lyons/Guyer.. 02/18/2022
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...
LAT...LON41928312 41568271 41178303 40888368 40548466 40478525
40468553 40558571 40728584 40898611 41368621 41758616
42018591 42628512 43508377 43748341 43848310 43888275
43868259 43398245 43178230 42868232 42498257 41928312
Read more
Fri, 18 Feb 2022 01:09:03 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 PM CST Thu Feb 17 2022
Valid 180100Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
ALABAMA AND EXTENDING INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE...
...SUMMARY...
Severe wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado, remain possible this
evening mainly from parts of Alabama into western Georgia.
...Discussion...
An extensive, positive-tilt upper trough will continue to move east
across the Ohio Valley, with intensifying midlevel jet max to 120 kt
from Kentucky into Ohio tonight. A surface low now over Ohio will
shift northeastward into upstate New York and northern New England
tonight, with a cold front moving east across the Appalachians after
06Z.
Storms are currently ongoing along the front from southern
Mississippi into central and northern Alabama, with low-topped,
strongly forced convection over eastern Tennessee and Kentucky.
Deep-layer ascent is currently maximized from Kentucky southward
into Alabama, and is forecast to decrease with time as the midlevel
speed max continues into the Northeast.
For a few hours this evening, a threat of damaging winds and a
couple tornadoes is expected to persist centered over Alabama where
0-1 SRH exceeds 300 to 400 m2/s2 and dewpoints are in the mid 60s F.
An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out into eastern Tennessee as
well given extreme shear and marginally unstable boundary layer.
..Jewell.. 02/18/2022
Read more
Fri, 18 Feb 2022 00:47:14 +0000
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