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LU9DCE > ALERT 21.02.22 07:47z 96 Lines 4180 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3363_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 17-FEB.22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<LU3DVN<LU9DCE
Sent: 220217/1401Z 3363@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQK6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
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Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Thu, 17 Feb 2022 03:41:02 +0000
Thu, 17 Feb 2022 03:41:02 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Thu Feb 17 03:41:02 UTC 2022.
Thu, 17 Feb 2022 03:40:07 +0000
MD 0136 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR TX SOUTH PLAINS TO CENTRAL OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0136
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0939 PM CST Wed Feb 16 2022
Areas affected...TX South Plains to Central OK
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 170339Z - 170615Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected across
the southern Plains from central Oklahoma into northwest Texas
tonight. Damaging winds, some hail threat, and perhaps a tornado are
possible.
DISCUSSION...Notable mid-level short-wave trough has quit digging
over northern Mexico and it will soon eject northeast across the
southern High Plains. Leading edge of large-scale forcing for ascent
is spreading across west TX where deepening mid-level convection is
now penetrating levels necessary for lightning discharge. 00z
soundings from AMA/MAF exhibited very steep lapse rates in the
lowest 3km but meager PW was evident with 0.25-0.55 inch observed.
Even so, strong UVV/mid-level moistening has contributed to
sufficient buoyancy for an expanding precipitation shield/embedded
thunderstorms from west of MAF-CDS-western OK. Winds have been
gusting in excess of 40kt coincident with this convection, possibly
enhanced by relatively dry sub-cloud layer.
Over the next few hours, large-scale forcing will overspread the
western edge of deeper moisture and a more expansive linear MCS may
ultimately evolve across the southern Plains. Strong wind fields
support supercells but storm mode may be predominately linear and/or
clusters within a broader convective shield. Additionally, polar
front is surging south across northern OK and this boundary will
undercut convection, perhaps limiting cool-sided convection to a
mostly hail threat. While damaging winds/hail are the primary
threats, there is some concern for a few stronger supercells near
the Red River where low-level dew points are creeping to near 60F.
..Darrow/Guyer.. 02/17/2022
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON32420111 35159926 35569688 32889795 32420111
Read more
Thu, 17 Feb 2022 03:40:03 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 PM CST Wed Feb 16 2022
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Mainly damaging winds and hail are expected overnight and into the
early morning across north Texas and across Oklahoma, reaching into
western Arkansas late. A brief tornado or two may also occur.
...Northern Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas...
Little change was made to the previous outlook, as the bulk of the
storm activity is expected to form later tonight. Latest models
indicate that storms will form around 06Z over northwest Texas near
and north of the surface low, extending into southwest/west-central
Oklahoma along the cold front.
Forecast soundings indicate that the warm sector will remain capped
until lift along the front and low arrive. When this occurs, an
expanding area of rain and storms will result, with storm
interactions likely. A supercell or two will be possible ahead of
the cold front and in association with the surface low, and this is
the most favorable corridor for severe storms.
..Jewell.. 02/17/2022
Read more
Thu, 17 Feb 2022 00:55:27 +0000
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