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LU9DCE > ALERT 08.04.19 07:01z 181 Lines 10154 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 21125_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 08 04
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190408/0700Z 21125@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SOPORTE TECNICO - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259
AM CDT Mon Apr 08 2019
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/NORTHWEST ALABAMA...AND FROM GEORGIA
EAST-NORTHEAST TO NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with damaging wind gusts and hail
will be possible from Georgia and eastern Tennessee northeastward
across the Carolinas into southeastern Virginia on Monday, as well
as over northern Mississippi and western Alabama.
...Synopsis... While a northern-stream upper trough is forecast
to evolve across the Upper Great Lakes, and a second is expected
to shift onshore over the Pacific Northwest vicinity later in
the period, the main upper feature with respect to the convective
forecast will be the upper low crossing the Arklatex region at the
start of the period. This feature will advance steadily eastward
while weakening gradually, eventually reaching the central Gulf
Coast region by the end of the period.
At the surface, a weak low will accompany this upper trough, crossing
the central Gulf Coast states through the second half of the period.
Farther north, a roughly west-east cold front is expected to sag
southward across the Great Lakes/Northeast and northern Plains.
Finally, a cold front is expected to cross the western states in
advance of the approaching Pacific trough.
...Central Gulf Coast states across the Southeast to the NC/VA
coast... Bands of showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop today, shifting east/northeast from parts of the
Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians across the Carolinas/southern
Virginia, near and downstream of the advancing southern-stream upper
low/trough. However, specifics -- with respect to areas of greater
severe risk -- remain somewhat difficult to hone in on due to:
1. A lack of well-defined low-level focusing mechanisms, and... 2.
An ongoing band of convection crossing the central Gulf Coast region
at this time.
Generally speaking, modest destabilization is expected from Georgia
to southern Virginia, beneath weakly anticyclonic flow aloft.
Scattered storms are expected to develop over the region during
the afternoon as heights gradually fall, with some organization
possible -- aided by moderately strong south-southwest flow in the
lower and middle troposphere. Stronger storms will be capable of
producing local wind damage and some hail during the afternoon,
with an isolated tornado possible as well.
Farther west/nearer the upper low, stronger ascent and diffluent
flow aloft would suggest potential for more vigorous storms, though
aforementioned questions regarding potential for destabilization
across parts of the central Gulf Coast region linger -- and thus
MRGL risk will be maintained across parts of Alabama despite the
relatively favorable synoptic setup from a pattern-recognition
perspective.
Finally, areas just east/northeast of upper low -- across parts of
northern Mississippi and adjacent northwest Alabama, appear more
likely to become amply unstable in the wake of ongoing convection,
and thus a corridor more supportive of vigorous updraft development
is apparent. Scattered afternoon storms will likely prove capable
of hail production, along with locally damaging wind gust potential.
A tornado or two will also be possible within this vorticity-favored
area.
After achieving a diurnal peak in intensity, the multiple
bands/clusters of storms anticipated across the region should
begin to diminish in intensity during the evening, with a
corresponding/gradual decrease in severe risk after dark.
...Northern CA Central Valley vicinity... A few thunderstorms are
expected over the northern Central Valley vicinity of California.
At this time, instability appears likely to remain quite modest,
and thus severe risk appears negligible. If slightly greater
CAPE can evolve than is currently expected, potential for small
hail and/or a brief tornado could not be ruled out. At this time,
no probability area will be issued, due to uncertainty regarding
destabilization potential.
..Goss/Squitieri.. 04/08/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249
AM CDT Mon Apr 08 2019
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms will be possible from
the eastern Carolinas, southeast GA into the FL Peninsula Tuesday
with isolated damaging wind and possibly some hail the main threats.
...Eastern Carolinas, southeast Georgia and the Florida Peninsula...
Southern-stream upper trough will continue east through GA, north
FL and SC during the day then off the southeast Atlantic seaboard
Tuesday night. Models have trended slower, with the previously
faster GFS and ECMWF now similar to yesterdays NAM. As a result
have expanded the marginal risk area farther north. By 12Z Tuesday
a stationary front should extend from off the middle Atlantic
seaboard southwest through east TN to a surface low over AL, then
southward as a cold front into the Gulf. Surface dewpoints in the
warm sector should range from low 70s F over the south FL Peninsula
to mid-upper 60s F farther north, supporting potential for moderate
instability with 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE possible. A low-mid level
jet accompanying the shortwave trough will spread through northern
FL and the eastern seaboard promoting 35-45 kt effective bulk shear
during the morning into the early afternoon, sufficient for storm
organization. However, at this time it appears the low-level jet
will move offshore during the afternoon and will not necessarily be
favorably timed with maximum boundary layer destabilization. A few
storms will be possible during the morning along the conveyor belt,
then along a portion of the cold front during the afternoon. The
stronger storms might become capable of producing mainly isolated
damaging wind and small to marginally severe hail.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Dial.. 04/08/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 AM CDT Mon Apr 08 2019
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will exit the
south-central CONUS and cross the Lower Mississippi Valley, with a
mid-level ridge building into the southwest and central CONUS during
the day. A mid-level trough will also traverse California and the
western Great Basin towards the end of the period. At the surface,
high pressure will dominate the Great Basin/Four Corners regions,
with weak lee troughing expected across the central/southern High
Plains regions.
Widespread near-critical to critical RH will be present across
the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Locally elevated
conditions may be realized where downslope flow may support winds
exceeding 15 mph in terrain favored areas, and where fine fuels
are receptive to fire spread, particularly in central New Mexico.
..Squitieri.. 04/08/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 AM CDT Mon Apr 08 2019
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO...
...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough, associated with a belt
of up to 80 knot flow, will deepen as it progresses over the southern
Great Basin/Four Corners region on Day 2/Tuesday. At the surface,
rapid low-pressure expansion/development is expected across the
central High Plains, promoting strong isallobaric flow across the
Four Corners into the southern High Plains. In addition, the diurnal
boundary layer will likely mix up to 500 mb by peak heating in the
afternoon, promoting the downward transport of higher momentum air
aloft, enhanced even further by downslope flow along the lees of
higher terrain areas.
Given strong isallobaric/downslope flow and high degree of
boundary-layer mixing, 20-30 mph sustained west-southwesterly flow
and 10-20% RH will be common across much Four Corners into portions
of the southern High Plains. A critical area was delineated where
agreement among the latest model guidance indicates the best overlap
of the aforementioned surface wind/RH conditions, and where fine
fuels remains at least marginally receptive to fire spread, with
little recent green-up noted. Fuels are more marginally supportive
of fire spread across the Four Corners region given recent green-up.
Nonetheless, an elevated area was delineated, as elevated to at
least locally critical wind/RH conditions are expected during the
afternoon hours. As the boundary layer cools during the evening,
the stronger surface winds will subside to a degree, with some RH
recovery expected, temporarily dampening wildfire-spread potential.
..Squitieri.. 04/08/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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