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LU9DCE > ALERT 24.02.22 13:35z 106 Lines 4717 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3684_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 24-FEB22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<SK0BO<SM0YOS<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 220224/1331Z 3684@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
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Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Thu, 24 Feb 2022 01:16:01 +0000
Thu, 24 Feb 2022 01:16:01 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Thu Feb 24 01:16:01 UTC 2022.
Thu, 24 Feb 2022 01:15:06 +0000
MD 0181 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
Mesoscale Discussion 0181
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0534 PM CST Wed Feb 23 2022
Areas affected...portions of central/northeastern Arkansas and the
mid Mississippi River Valley.
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 232334Z - 240530Z
SUMMARY...An ongoing band of light wintry mixed precipitation,
including freezing rain and sleet, will move off to the northeast
ahead of a second round developing to the southwest. Widespread
freezing rain is expected with showers and thunderstorms over top of
cold surface air. Significant travel impacts are likely into this
evening.
DISCUSSION...As of 2330z, regional radar and satellite data showed
the first round of winter precipitation exiting northeastern AR into
far western TN and the MO Bootheel. Warming cloud tops on IR imagery
generally agree with the weakening trend observed on radar over the
last several hours. To the west of this first round, additional
convection has developed within strong mid-level warm advection over
far northern TX/LA and southwestern AR. Over the last 45 minutes,
lightning data has shown a marked uptick in intensity with elevated
convective cores above the near or sub-freezing surface layer. Warm
advection is forecast to continue to increase through this evening,
as a low-level jet develops ahead of a subtle shortwave trough
visible on WV imagery across OK. The increase in isentropic ascent
and mid-level moisture transport will reinforce the strong warm nose
and weakly unstable conditions aloft given steep mid-level lapse
rates near 8 C/km.
Hi-res guidance and current observations suggest ongoing storms and
additional development will merge across central and northeastern AR
supporting a band of freezing rain as they move to the north and
east. Model soundings are quite favorable for freezing rain
development, showing a 6-8 C warm nose above a shallow freezing
layer. Little movement in the surface freezing line is expected
given that the strong warm advection and continued low-level cold
advection are in near equilibrium across AR. Freezing rain and
thunderstorms may also expand northeastward later this evening
across western TN and southeastern MO. Here however, weaker warm
advection and waning buoyancy suggest coverage will begin to
decrease with northeastward extent.
Several hours of freezing rain will likely result in travel issues
across central and northeastern AR. Locally heavier ice accretion
rates (0.25 in/hr) and perhaps some sleet will be possible beneath
the heavier convective elements as they become better established
within the forecasted band across central AR. Precipitation will
begin to lessen temporarily near and after 06z from the southwest as
the shortwave trough and warm advection corridor shift toward the
east.
..Lyons/Grams.. 02/23/2022
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON33779222 33479264 33329310 33379365 33569423 33819444
34959396 35779251 36169144 36399053 36498963 36418911
36258892 36028894 35678931 35378973 34849050 34459121
34079180 33779222
Read more
Thu, 24 Feb 2022 00:00:02 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 PM CST Wed Feb 23 2022
Valid 240100Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
...Synopsis...
Elevated thunderstorms continue in an area of wintry precipitation
across southern Arkansas this evening. Expect these thunderstorms to
continue northeast through the overnight hours with some additional
development possible on the southern extent.
Diurnal isolated thunderstorms across Arizona have weakened recently
and are not expected to persist much beyond 1Z as the boundary layer
cools.
..Bentley.. 02/24/2022
Read more
Thu, 24 Feb 2022 00:50:26 +0000
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