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LU9DCE > ALERT 28.02.22 07:34z 159 Lines 7001 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3813_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 27-FEB22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<N9PMO<VE3UIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 220227/2030Z 3813@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
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Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Sun, 27 Feb 2022 11:16:02 +0000
Sun, 27 Feb 2022 11:16:02 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Sun Feb 27 11:16:02 UTC 2022.
Sun, 27 Feb 2022 11:15:06 +0000
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Feb 27 11:16:02 UTC 2022.
Sun, 27 Feb 2022 11:15:06 +0000
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 AM CST Sun Feb 27 2022
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms appear unlikely on Tuesday across the Lower 48 states.
...Synopsis...
A relatively stable pattern will continue on Tuesday with high
pressure over much of the CONUS. One prominent high will be centered
over the Intermountain West with another ridge across the Southeast.
In the upper levels, a broad region of cyclonic flow will stretch
from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes and into the
Northeast, with an upper ridge over the West. Modest westerlies will
exist across the Gulf of Mexico and FL where 50s and 60s dewpoints
will remain. Forecast soundings show little if any instability over
FL and thunderstorms are not anticipated there.
..Jewell.. 02/27/2022
Read more
Sun, 27 Feb 2022 07:34:02 +0000
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 AM CST Sun Feb 27 2022
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Little chance of thunderstorms will exist during the Wed/D4 through
Fri/D6 period as a large-scale upper trough slowly moves across the
Great Lakes and Northeast, with stable air over land.
By Sat/D7, models indicate increased low-level moisture return over
the southern Plains as a large upper trough develops over the
western CONUS. The ECMWF members show a strong midlevel jet emerging
into the central/southern Plains at this time, and indications are
that this wave may eject rather quickly northeast. Dewpoints up to
60 F may spread as far north as eastern OK as a low deepens over the
upper MS Valley. While some degree of severe threat may develop
along the trailing dryline or cold front, instability is forecast to
be relatively weak and will also depend on heating.
For Sun/D8, shortwave ridging is forecast over the Plains as a
secondary wave (still within the large-scale mean trough) moves
across the Four Corners states. A boundary would likely be in place
across parts of the southern Plains in the wake of the Sat/D7
system, and increasing southerly flow late Sun/D8 into Mon/D9 could
potentially result in severe potential as moisture returns north.
The second wave, if the ECMWF ensemble verifies may yield greater
severe potential as boundary layer moisture will have had a longer
time to increase across TX and toward the lower MS Valley (mid to
upper 60s F). If models remain consistent, one or more severe areas
may eventually be added in later outlooks as predictability
warrants.
Read more
Sun, 27 Feb 2022 09:38:57 +0000
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CST Sun Feb 27 2022
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A midlevel ridge will build eastward across the central Rockies and
adjacent Plains, while a low-amplitude shortwave trough crosses the
northern Rockies along the northern periphery of the ridge. At the
surface, expansive high pressure will remain centered over the
Intermountain West, while weak lee troughing develops over parts of
the northern and central Plains.
...Central and Southern Plains...
As the midlevel ridge overspreads the region, maximum temperatures
will climb into the upper 50s to near 60 across most of the central
and southern Plains. This will result in widespread minimum
afternoon RH of 10-15 percent, though sustained surface winds should
generally remain below 15 mph where fuels are receptive to
wildfire-spread. The one exception may be over parts of northern KS
and NE, where west-northwesterly surface winds could approach 15 mph
amid 10-15 percent RH. However, these conditions appear too marginal
and localized for Elevated highlights at this time.
...Southern California...
Along the southern periphery of the western CONUS surface high, dry
offshore flow will continue across southern California. Over parts
of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, northeasterly wind gusts of
25-35 mph will overlap 5-15 percent RH during the morning and
afternoon hours. With that said, high live fuel moisture should
generally mitigate the fire-weather threat, though localized
fire-weather concerns will exist where the gusty winds/low RH align
with dead fuels. No highlights will be introduced due to the
localized nature of the threat.
..Weinman.. 02/27/2022
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Sun, 27 Feb 2022 07:48:28 +0000
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 AM CST Sun Feb 27 2022
Valid 281200Z - 011200Z
...Synopsis...
A midlevel trough and accompanying enhanced flow aloft will
overspread the Rockies, resulting in lee troughing over the High
Plains -- where a dry antecedent airmass will exist. Farther west, a
midlevel ridge will build over the West Coast, reinforcing surface
high pressure over the Intermountain West and offshore flow over
southern California.
...Central and Southern Plains...
Dry boundary-layer conditions aided by downslope flow will continue
across most of the central and southern Plains, where minimum
afternoon RH of 10-15 percent is expected. Over portions of the
southern High Plains, a few hours of elevated conditions will be
possible, as sustained northerly surface winds near 15 mph develop
amid the critically-low RH. While less certain, breezy
north-northwesterly surface winds will also be possible across the
central Plains, though confidence in the development of sustained 15
mph surface winds is too low to introduce highlights at this time.
...Southern California...
The offshore pressure gradient will be maintained over southern
California, while mid/upper-level northeasterly winds strengthen
across the region. This will result in northeasterly wind gusts of
30-50 mph amid 10-15 percent RH over portions of Ventura, Los
Angeles, and Orange Counties. Current indications are that high live
fuel moisture will continue to mitigate the fire-weather threat,
though trends will be monitored closely as fuels continue to dry
across the area.
..Weinman.. 02/27/2022
Read more
Sun, 27 Feb 2022 07:51:30 +0000
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