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LU9DCE > ALERT 05.03.22 17:30z 90 Lines 4041 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4059_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 05-MAR22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<SK0BO<SM0YOS<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 220305/1330Z 4059@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
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Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Sat, 05 Mar 2022 01:06:02 +0000
Sat, 05 Mar 2022 01:06:02 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Sat Mar5 01:06:02 UTC 2022.
Sat, 05 Mar 2022 01:05:06 +0000
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Mar5 01:06:02 UTC 2022.
Sat, 05 Mar 2022 01:05:05 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 PM CST Fri Mar 04 2022
Valid 050100Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms may develop overnight across parts of the
middle Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest.A couple of these may
become capable of producing hail, but this is still expected to
mostly remain below severe limits.
...Synopsis...
Models indicate that there will be further amplification of
mid-level ridging across the northeastern Pacific, within the
northern branch of split westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude
western Pacific.As this occurs, a vigorous downstream short wave
trough, and embedded mid-level low, likely will continue to dig
southward along the northern through central California coast.
A similar preceding perturbation is already in the process of
accelerating into the Four Corners region, and forecast to continue
northeastward across the southern Rockies by 12Z Saturday.This
will be accompanied by the development of a strong southwesterly
mid/upper jet streak across the central and southern Great Plains.
Surface cyclogenesis is already underway across eastern Colorado,
with a corridor of 30-40 kt southerly flow around 850 mb focused
along an axis across the central Great Plains through portions of
the middle Missouri through upper Mississippi Valley.Further
strengthening of this low-level jet is forecast overnight,
particularly across the southern Great Plains through southern
portions of the middle Missouri Valley.In the wake of a number of
preceding cold intrusions, low-level moisture return off the Gulf is
still somewhat modest, but underway, albeit mostly below warming and
capping elevated mixed-layer air.
...Mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest...
Latest model guidance continues to suggest that scattered
thunderstorm development overnight is most probable across parts of
northeastern Iowa into southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
This is where strongest lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection will
become focused, and it appears that elevated moisture return will
become sufficient to contributed to weak destabilization.
Additional thunderstorm development appears possible southwestward
along the low-level jet axis, toward the southern Nebraska/Iowa
Missouri River vicinity, closer to the northeastern periphery of the
warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, where
thermodynamic profiles might become more conducive to the production
of at least small hail.
...Great Basin into Colorado Rockies...
Widely scattered thunderstorm development is ongoing, largely aided
by daytime heating beneath cold mid-level air associated with the
evolving larger-scale troughing.Probabilities for continuing
thunderstorm development are expected to become increasingly
negligible across most areas through 02-04Z.
...Northern into central California coast...
Near the cold core of the digging mid-level low, isolated
thunderstorm development appears possible overnight.
..Kerr.. 03/05/2022
Read more
Sat, 05 Mar 2022 01:05:26 +0000
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