| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 09.04.19 07:03z 132 Lines 7160 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 21164_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 09 04
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR1UAW<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190409/0700Z 21164@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SOPORTE TECNICO - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259
AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2019
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms will be possible over
portions of the Southeast today, with isolated damaging wind and
possibly some hail the main threats.
...Synopsis... As a northern-stream upper trough digs/expands
across the Great Lakes and then shifts into the Northeast, some
phasing will occur with the southern-stream trough crossing the
central Gulf Coast region early in the period. The result will be
slightly faster eastward advance of the trough across the Southeast
-- with the trough reaching the southeastern Atlantic Coast and
Florida Peninsula late in the period.
Meanwhile in the West, a strengthening/digging trough will advance
southeastward from the Pacific Northwest/northern California across
the Great Basin, and into the Utah/Arizona/southern California
vicinity through the period.
At the surface, a strong cold front will sweep across the West
ahead of the upper trough, with a surface low likely emerging into
the central High Plains region overnight. Meanwhile, a roughly
west-to-east cold front will continue to sag southward across the
Northeast and Midwest regions, while in the south, a weak surface
low will progress across the Southeast in tandem with the upper
system crossing the region.
...The Southeast... As the upper system and its associated surface
reflection shift steadily eastward, episodic convection is forecast
to move east/east-northeast across the GA/SC/NC area. Isolated,
more strongly diurnal storms are also expected to develop farther
south across Florida, ahead of the trough.
With enhanced southwesterly flow aloft expected across the area,
particularly through late morning/early afternoon, shear sufficient
for local organization of convection suggests risk for local
wind damage/hail -- especially during the morning and early- to
mid-afternoon hours. Thereafter, some risk may linger with more
isolated convection, but a gradual decrease in risk will occur into
the evening hours.
...Eastern PA and vicinity... As an upper trough digs
east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and a cold front advances
across the central Appalachians, weak destabilization may occur in
conjunction with afternoon heating across eastern PA and vicinity.
A band of thunderstorms may develop near the front, as hinted at
by several of the latest CAM runs -- with rapid east-southeast
motion owing to strong northwesterly flow through the depth of the
troposphere. Given the fast storm motion, any linear organization
of low-topped convection would likely be accompanied by a risk for
locally gusty/damaging winds, and therefore a small MRGL risk area
is being added, to cover this potential event during the afternoon.
Storms should diminish by early evening, and move offshore shortly
thereafter.
..Goss/Squitieri.. 04/09/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255
AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2019
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
KANSAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...
...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms with large hail and
damaging wind will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from
northern Kansas through southeast Nebraska and into western Iowa.
...Synopsis... Severe thunderstorm potential will likely be tied
to a powerful, rapidly amplifying mid-level trough that will migrate
from the central Rockies eastward to the central Plains through 12Z
Thursday. A strong mid/upper jet will round the base of this trough
and extend from southern New Mexico northeastward into southern Iowa.
At the surface, a rapidly deepening low over western Kansas will
move eastward into central Kansas during the day before occluding
and migrating toward southeastern Nebraska late in the period.
...Northern Kansas, southeastern Nebraska, and western Iowa...
A stout elevated mixed layer will overspread much of the area
beginning early in the period, with 8-9.5 deg C/km mid-level lapse
rates persisting through much of the day. A stout low-level jet axis
will extend from northeastern Oklahoma into southern Iowa during the
early morning. Convergence on the nose of this jet and steep lapse
rates suggest potential for elevated, hail-producing convection
early across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. This risk should
remain isolated and shift eastward toward the Mississippi River
through midday.
Later in the afternoon, forcing for ascent with the approach
of the mid-level wave, lift within the left exit region of the
strengthening mid-level jet, and steep lapse rates aloft will likely
initiate storms over northwestern/north-central Kansas and vicinity.
These storms may be slightly elevated atop a cold front initially,
but will spread east-northeastward along the Kansas/Nebraska border
area through the evening and overnight, eventually reaching western
Iowa early Thursday.
The primary uncertainty for this forecast period will be the
development of any surface-based convection south of the cold front
and along/near the trailing dryline, which should extend southward
from the surface low along the US281/81 corridor during peak
heating hours. Hail will be the dominant threat with any elevated
convection, but storms that can manage to become surface-based will
have a threat of significant hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps
a tornado despite high bases and relatively low boundary-layer
moisture content. The spatio-temporal extent of the surface-based
convective threat should be relatively focused and reside south
of the KS/NE border toward the I-70 corridor from around 22-02Z.
Thereafter, nocturnal boundary-layer decoupling should result in
mostly elevated hail potential through the overnight hours as storms
spread toward western Iowa and vicinity.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight
..Cook.. 04/09/2019
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Perilous to all of us are the devices of an art deeper than we ourselves
possess.
-- Gandalf the Grey [J.R.R. Tolkien, "Lord of the Rings"]
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Soporte tecnico las 24hs - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
- Servidores / empresas / Desktop
* Mantenimiento * Optimizacion * Soluciones
* Seguridad - Proteccion
--------------------------- Abono mensual - Consulte
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
