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LU9DCE > ALERT 07.03.22 20:35z 219 Lines 9051 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4150_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 07-MAR22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<SK0BO<SM0YOS<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 220307/1930Z 4150@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Mon, 07 Mar 2022 03:04:02 +0000
Mon, 07 Mar 2022 03:04:02 +0000
general
1
WW 34 TORNADO AR MO 070155Z - 070800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 34
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
755 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Western to northern Arkansas
Southern Missouri
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 755 PM
until 200 AM CST.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
SUMMARY...Long-lived supercell in north-central to northeast
Arkansas should pose a near-term tornado threat. Otherwise, an
intensifying linear cluster with embedded supercells is expected to
evolve along a sharpening cold front from western Arkansas into
southern Missouri with a tornado and damaging wind threat.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
east and west of a line from 50 miles north of Poplar Bluff MO to 50
miles south southwest of Russellville AR. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...This tornado watch replaces tornado
watch number 33. Watch number 33 will not be in effect after 755
PM CST.
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 25040.
...Grams
Read more
Mon, 07 Mar 2022 03:03:03 +0000
WW 0034 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 34
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0212
..WENDT..03/07/22
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 34
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-009-021-023-029-045-049-055-063-065-071-075-083-089-097-
101-105-113-115-121-127-129-135-137-141-149-070440-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTERBOONECLAY
CLEBURNE CONWAYFAULKNER
FULTONGREENEINDEPENDENCE
IZARD JOHNSON LAWRENCE
LOGAN MARIONMONTGOMERY
NEWTONPERRYPOLK
POPERANDOLPHSCOTT
SEARCYSHARPSTONE
VAN BURENYELL
MOC017-023-031-035-067-069-091-133-143-149-153-155-181-201-203-
207-213-223-070440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGERBUTLERCAPE GIRARDEAU
Read more
Mon, 07 Mar 2022 03:03:03 +0000
WW 0033 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 33
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..WENDT..03/07/22
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...MEG...SHV...PAH...SGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 33
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-009-015-021-023-029-031-045-047-049-051-055-061-063-065-
067-071-075-083-087-089-093-097-101-105-109-111-113-115-119-121-
125-127-129-131-133-135-137-141-145-147-149-070240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTERBOONECARROLL
CLAYCLEBURNECONWAY
CRAIGHEADFAULKNERFRANKLIN
FULTONGARLAND GREENE
HOWARDINDEPENDENCEIZARD
JACKSONJOHNSON LAWRENCE
LOGAN MADISON MARION
MISSISSIPPI MONTGOMERY NEWTON
PERRY PIKE POINSETT
POLKPOPE PULASKI
RANDOLPH SALINESCOTT
SEARCYSEBASTIANSEVIER
SHARP STONEVAN BUREN
WHITE WOODRUFFYELL
MOC023-035-067-069-091-143-149-153-155-181-203-207-213-223-
070240-
Read more
Mon, 07 Mar 2022 01:06:03 +0000
MD 0212 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 34... FOR NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0212
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0846 PM CST Sun Mar 06 2022
Areas affected...northern Arkansas and adjacent southern Missouri
Concerning...Tornado Watch 34...
Valid 070246Z - 070415Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 34 continues.
SUMMARY...Severe/tornado risk continues across portions of WW 34 --
focused over the Ozarks at this time.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows storms evolving into a loosely
organized frontal band from southwestern Missouri to southeastern
Oklahoma, in the vicinity of the northeast Arkansas surface low, and
trailing cold front.Meanwhile, storms east/northeast of the
surface low -- over the Ozarks -- pose the greatest short-term risk
for more substantial severe weather/tornadic spin-ups.While the
earlier supercell that tracked across northern Arkansas producing
several tornado reports has now weakened to sub-severe levels as it
moves into southeastern Missouri, a new supercell has evolved and is
now moving across Ozark county.This storm appears potentially
tornadic at this time, with the circulation evident on the KSGF
WSR-88D to move into southern Douglas county shortly.
Meanwhile, expect severe potential -- including the potential for
QLCS-type tornadoes -- to increase over western portions of the WW
as the frontal convection organizes/shifts eastward over the next
few hours.
..Goss.. 03/07/2022
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON37169200 37479152 37349104 36769052 36489058 36129185
35719267 35139374 35419392 36469289 37169200
Read more
Mon, 07 Mar 2022 02:47:03 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 PM CST Sun Mar 06 2022
Valid 070100Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop and
organize this evening across the Ozark Plateau vicinity, posing a
risk for damaging wind gusts and continuing potential for tornadoes,
before spreading into the lower Ohio Valley overnight.
...01Z Update...
An intense mid/upper jet streak is in the process of emerging from
the Southwest, with southwesterly winds around the 500 mb level now
in excess of 100 kt crossing the southern Texas Panhandle into
western Oklahoma.This is forecast to continue nosing northeastward
toward the Great Lakes region through late tonight.Correspondingly
40-50+ kt south to southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer across
the Ozark Plateau vicinity is forecast to strengthen to 50-70+ kt
through 03-06Z, before developing northeastward through the Ohio
Valley in association with a developing frontal wave.As this
occurs, already sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs to the
east and southeast of the frontal wave will enlarge farther.
The surface low center is currently near Fayetteville, AR and
forecast to migrate east-northeastward along a fairly sharp surface
frontal zone across southern Missouri this evening, then across the
lower Ohio Valley into Ohio by late tonight.Models indicate that
forcing for ascent ahead of this low, ahead by low-level warm
advection, will probably support an upscale growing cluster of
thunderstorms this evening.Inflow of relatively moist
boundary-layer air with CAPE up to around 1000 J/kg, coupled with
the strengthening shear, is expected to prove conducive to an
organizing convective system capable of producing damaging gusts and
a continuing risk for tornadoes.
Isolated tornadic supercells have already occurred across parts of
northern Arkansas, and one isolated sustained supercell is still
ongoing across north central Arkansas (south/southeast of Flippin at
0030Z).There appears potential for this storm to persist, or
additional isolated supercells to form in advance of the developing
cluster, and spread northeastward toward the Poplar Bluff, MO area
and Missouri Bootheel through late evening.As low-level hodographs
enlarge, it appears that tornadic potential will continue, or
increase.
Otherwise, despite more limited available instability, the evolving
convective system appears likely to spread east-northeastward into
and through much of the lower Ohio Valley overnight, accompanied by
continuing potential for damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes.
Additional thunderstorm development seems probable southwestward
along the trailing cold front, which may pose a risk for occasional
strong surface gusts while advancing southeastward into and through
the lower Ohio Valley.
..Kerr.. 03/07/2022
Read more
Mon, 07 Mar 2022 00:45:22 +0000
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