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LU9DCE > ALERT 09.03.22 13:36z 104 Lines 4721 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4243_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 09-MAR22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<SK0BO<SM0YOS<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 220309/1330Z 4243@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQK6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
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Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Wed, 09 Mar 2022 03:52:01 +0000
Wed, 09 Mar 2022 03:52:01 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Wed Mar9 03:52:01 UTC 2022.
Wed, 09 Mar 2022 03:51:06 +0000
MD 0226 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO THE ALABAMA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0226
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0950 PM CST Tue Mar 08 2022
Areas affected...portions of far southeast Louisiana into the
Alabama Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 090350Z - 090715Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A localized, short-duration severe threat may develop
across portions of far southeast Louisiana towards Mobile Bay in the
next several hours. Marginally severe hail appears to be the primary
threat, though a damaging gust or waterspout cannot be completely
ruled out along the shoreline. A relatively greater severe threat
may develop around Mobile Bay later tonight. A WW issuance is not
currently expected.
DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic and KLIX radar imagery depicts deepening
convection across far southeast LA and points just off shore, with
lightning trends on the increase over the past hour or so. These
storms are developing within a confluence band ahead of a cold
front, where 03Z mesoanalysis depicts up to 7.5 C/km 700-500 mb
lapse rates in place (8.5 C/km for the 700-500 mb layer based on the
00Z LIX observed sounding). The 00Z LIX observed sounding also shows
modestly veering and strengthening winds with height in the
surface-500 mb, contributing to over 40 kts of effective bulk shear.
The steeper mid-level lapse rates are contributing to over 900 J/kg
MUCAPE, even on the immediate cool side of a baroclinic zone draped
across southeast LA into the Mobile Bay area. Occasional bouts of
mid-level rotation and perhaps an instance or two of marginally
severe hail may accompany the more persistent elevated updrafts on
the cool side of the boundary. However, any storms that can sustain
on the warm side of the boundary could become surface based, posing
a threat for a damaging gust or a waterspout along coastline areas.
As the cold front progresses eastward overnight, a general increase
in storm coverage and intensity is expected around and east of the
Mobile Bay area by 09-10Z. In this regime, stronger low-level flow
will be in place, with storms capable of producing damaging gusts,
marginally severe hail, and perhaps a tornado.
..Squitieri/Kerr.. 03/09/2022
ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...
LAT...LON29149086 29659039 30218980 30428870 30818806 30788770
30608753 30288798 29768871 29378900 29258900 29008903
28918936 28878982 29149086
Read more
Wed, 09 Mar 2022 03:51:02 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 PM CST Tue Mar 08 2022
Valid 090100Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may affect parts of southeast
Louisiana, coastal Mississippi/Alabama, and the western Florida
Panhandle after midnight.
...Central Gulf Coast region...
As a weak Gulf surface frontal wave moves northeastward into the
central Gulf Coast region, and then across Alabama toward northern
Georgia through latter stages of the period, modest pre-frontal
destabilization is expected.While models hint that a shallow
surface-based stable layer may persist just inland, degree of
stability may prove insufficient to preclude limited/local
surface-based severe risk.Thus, along with potential for marginal
hail with a few stronger storms, locally damaging outflow gusts
could occur.Additionally, given ample veering/increasing of the
flow field with height that is expected to persist across the
region, potential for both mid-level and low-level updraft rotation
suggests risk for a tornado or two as well, with any supercell that
might develop late in the period.
..Goss.. 03/09/2022
Read more
Wed, 09 Mar 2022 00:56:08 +0000
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