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LU9DCE > ALERT 12.03.22 17:35z 140 Lines 6552 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4355_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 12-MAR22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<SK0BO<SM0YOS<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 220312/1331Z 4355@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Sat, 12 Mar 2022 03:13:01 +0000
Sat, 12 Mar 2022 03:13:01 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Sat Mar 12 03:13:01 UTC 2022.
Sat, 12 Mar 2022 03:12:05 +0000
MD 0243 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0243
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0911 PM CST Fri Mar 11 2022
Areas affected...southern Alabama...southwestern Georgia...and the
Florida Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 120311Z - 120415Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Severe weather risk -- including potential for a couple of
tornadoes -- will gradually increase the remainder of this evening
and overnight.A tornado watch will likely be needed.
DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor loop shows a strong short-wave
trough approaching the lower Mississippi Valley region at this time,
and will reach the central Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley
overnight.As this occurs, a surface cold front will continue
advancing eastward, while a cold air dam persisting across the
Carolinas and into Georgia/eastern Alabama gradually erodes with
time from southwest to northeast.
As the low-level dam/stable layer is gradually replaced by higher
theta-e air as low-level theta-e advection increases in tandem with
the advance of the upper system, a more favorable thermodynamic
environment -- in terms of sustaining deep/moist convection -- will
slowly evolve.Initially, this increase in low-level theta-e -- and
thus mixed-layer CAPE -- will occur from southern Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia.As this occurs, in
tandem with a corresponding increase in low-level flow, risk for
organized/rotating storms will likewise increase.
At this time, it appears that a combination of storms developing
near the front, along with additional warm-sector cells spreading
northeastward/onshore from the Gulf, will eventually contribute to
the increase in severe risk.Along with potential for a few
instances of marginally severe hail, locally damaging wind gusts
will be possible, as will a couple of tornadoes.As such, new
Tornado Watch issuance is expected to be required in the next 1 to 2
hours.
..Goss/Grams.. 03/12/2022
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON30318790 31478709 32168644 31848380 31068345 30138368
29438480 30018768 30318790
Read more
Sat, 12 Mar 2022 03:12:03 +0000
MD 0242 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS
Mesoscale Discussion 0242
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0824 PM CST Fri Mar 11 2022
Areas affected...Portions of Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 120224Z - 120730Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snow in western portions of Tennessee and Kentucky
will continue north and east this evening and into the overnight.
Rapid cooling ahead of this activity will support a quick change to
snow. Rates of 1-2 inches per hour are possible, particularly in
areas of terrain enhancement.
DISCUSSION...KNQA radar imagery has shown a band of 30-35 dBZ
precipitation develop and move through western Tennessee. Higher
values of KDP aloft suggest heavier snowfall rates are possible
which has been corroborated by recent surface reports within the
region. This band is expected to continue to the north and east this
evening into the overnight. Downstream of this band, temperatures in
Middle/eastern Tennessee and eastern Kentucky are still in the 40s
to low 50s F. As the shortwave continues into the Mid-South, a
deepening surface low development in the central Gulf Coast will
support an increase in cold air advection across these areas. This,
along with cooling within heavier precipitation bands, will support
a relatively quick transition to snow. Frontogenesis at 850-700 mb
and ascent with the shortwave will support 1-2 inch per hour snow
rates. The greatest rates are most likely along the western
foothills/slopes of the Appalachians where upslope flow at low
levels will enhance vertical motion.
..Wendt.. 03/12/2022
ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...
PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON35098989 35818877 36468774 36738764 37758657 38168575
38618488 38828420 38768284 38048232 36948264 35458446
34898558 34678683 34638804 34528937 34768987 35098989
Read more
Sat, 12 Mar 2022 02:25:03 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 PM CST Fri Mar 11 2022
Valid 120100Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY...
Damaging wind and a few tornadoes are possible across the central
and northeastern Gulf Coast to the Carolinas and northern Florida.
The period of greatest concern appears to be late tonight into
Saturday morning.
...01z Update...
Long-lived, elongated corridor of convection persists across the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico extending into portion of northern FL.
This activity will stubbornly begin to advance north in response to
approaching short-wave trough later this evening. Higher instability
air mass is expected to gradually return to the central Gulf Coast
as an associated offshore boundary lifts north. Over the last few
hours, scattered thunderstorms have gradually increased in
coverage/intensity over southeast LA ahead of the main cold front.
Other strong storms are just off the southeast LA Coast where
greater buoyancy resides. This upstream convection is expected to
spread east-northeast this evening, along/near the Gulf Coast.
Strengthening wind fields over the ENH Risk will remain conducive
for supercells and potential tornadoes. Other than adjusting the
western edge of thunder/severe probabilities to account for ongoing
activity, earlier thoughts regarding the potential for severe
remain.
..Darrow.. 03/12/2022
Read more
Sat, 12 Mar 2022 00:39:58 +0000
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