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LU9DCE > ALERT 21.03.22 11:30z 102 Lines 4510 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4653_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 19-MAR22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DB0RBS<DB0RES<PI8CDR<GB7YEW<LU9DCE
Sent: 220319/1330Z 4653@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
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Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Sat, 19 Mar 2022 03:14:01 +0000
Sat, 19 Mar 2022 03:14:01 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Sat Mar 19 03:14:01 UTC 2022.
Sat, 19 Mar 2022 03:13:05 +0000
MD 0284 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0284
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1012 PM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022
Areas affected...portions of northern Kentucky
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 190312Z - 190415Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Brief tornadoes remains possible with the stronger QLCS
circulations over the next hour or so. A WW issuance is not expected
given the isolated nature of the severe threat.
DISCUSSION...A QLCS has recently become organized over the past
hour, with at least two different circulations being associated with
TDSs. Current KLVX and TSDF radars show organized low-level
circulations in progress. As long as these circulations persist, a
brief tornado remains possible. However, 03Z mesoanalysis shows
MLCAPE decreasing below 250 J/kg as MLCINH continues to increase. In
addition, hodographs have increased in size farther east per ILN and
JKL VWPs, suggesting that the low-level jet and resultant better
low-level shear has also become eastward-displaced. As such, the
ongoing tornado threat is expected to remain relatively isolated and
short-lived, and a WW issuance is not currently expected.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 03/19/2022
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...
LAT...LON37478601 37798609 38108600 38388559 38488520 38378471
38268461 38028469 37598550 37478601
Read more
Sat, 19 Mar 2022 03:13:03 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022
Valid 190100Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with wind damage will be possible this
evening in parts of northern Florida, southeast Georgia and the
lower Ohio Valley. Hail will also be possible in the lower Ohio
Valley.
...Northern Florida/Southeast Georgia...
The latest water vapor imagery shows cyclonically curved southwest
mid-level flow from the Southeast to the Eastern Seaboard, with a
plume of mid-level moisture located across the Atlantic Coastal
states. At the tail end of this plume, a line of strong
thunderstorms is ongoing from the Florida Panhandle extending
northeastward in southeast Georgia. This line of storms is in weak
instability according to the RAP but deep-layer shear is strong.
Regional WSR-88D VWPs are showing 0-6 km shear from 50 to 60 knots
in north Florida. This suggest a potential for isolated wind damage
will continue with the more organized multicells within the line.
The threat is expected to continue for a few more hours before
dissipating after sunset.
...Lower Ohio Valley...
Water vapor currently shows an upper-level trough extending
southward from the Upper Midwest into the Ozarks. Ahead of the
trough, mid-level flow is southwesterly across the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys. A mid-level jet is analyzed over the northern
Gulf Coast states and southern Tennessee Valley. The northern edge
of the mid-level jet is located in the lower Ohio Valley, where
scattered low-topped storms are ongoing. Although instability is
weak in this area, a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates is
analyzed from western Tennessee into western Kentucky. This combined
with strong large-scale ascent associated with the upper-level
trough to the west, may be enough for marginal hail threat for a few
more hours this evening. A marginal tornado and wind-damage threat
will also exist with the stronger cells over the next hour or two,
before instability begins to steadily decrease across the lower Ohio
Valley.
..Broyles.. 03/19/2022
Read more
Sat, 19 Mar 2022 00:50:59 +0000
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