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LU9DCE > ALERT 10.04.19 07:04z 169 Lines 9610 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 21206_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 10 04
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190410/0700Z 21206@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SOPORTE TECNICO - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251
AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND ADJACENT SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA...
...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms with large hail and
damaging wind will be possible late this afternoon and into this
evening from northern Kansas through the south central and southeast
Nebraska vicinity.
...Synopsis... An upper trough crossing the Intermountain West early
in the period is forecast to move steadily eastward, evolving into
a deepening closed low and emerging into the central Plains through
the second half of the period. Elsewhere, phased northern- and
southern-stream troughing will continue to gradually vacate the East.
At the surface, a deep/evolving low will pivot across the central
Plains, crossing western Kansas through late afternoon and reaching
the northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska vicinity by the end of
the period. Trailing from the low, a cold front will sweep across
the southern Plains, while a warm front moves northeastward across
the lower Missouri Valley and into the mid Mississippi and lower
Ohio Valleys through 11/12Z.
...North-central Kansas northeast to western Iowa... As the
strengthening storm system shifts toward/into the Plains today,
an intense deep-layer wind field will evolve across the risk area.
However, rather scant low-level moisture will accompany the system,
beneath stout capping. As such, convective development will remain
suppressed across a large portion of the central and southern Plains
despite an otherwise favorable synoptic setup.
By mid afternoon, heating/mixing of the boundary layer combined
with strong ascent focused near the surface low should permit
localized weakening of the cap -- and eventual development of
isolated convective cells. Initial development may occur over
northwestern Kansas/southwestern Nebraska, but stronger/sustained
updrafts appear more likely to initiate a bit later and a bit farther
east, into the north-central Kansas/south-central Nebraska vicinity.
Where updrafts can become sustained, the presence of very strong
shear -- owing to veering/increasing flow with height to in excess
of 70 kt from the southwest at mid levels during the afternoon --
will support strongly rotating updrafts. While low-level moisture
should remain insufficient for substantial tornado risk, one or two
long-lived supercells will likely evolve, capable of producing very
large hail, and locally damaging winds. These storms will spread
northeastward with time across parts of eastern Nebraska, before
weakening later in the evening. Some risk for separate/elevated
convective development is possible as a southerly low-level jet
intensifies after dark, with risk for hail with a few strong cells
possibly spreading into portions of western Iowa overnight.
..Goss/Squitieri.. 04/10/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253
AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...
...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging wind
gusts are possible from portions of the Midwest southward into
western Kentucky on Thursday.
...Synopsis... A vigorous storm system centered over the central
Plains near the KS/NE border at the start of the period will slowly
migrate northeastward, reaching southern Minnesota late. On the
southern and eastern periphery of this system, a powerful mid-level
jet (80-100 kts at 500 mb) will gradually overspread portions of
Illinois and Indiana throughout the forecast period. Another weak
wave rounding the base of this trough will gradually sharpen over the
Missouri Ozarks and eject northeastward toward IL/IN by 12Z Friday.
At the surface, a deeply occluded low over eastern Nebraska will
lift slowly northeastward while gradually filling over the course
of the forecast period. A warm front will extend east of this low
and slowly lift northward into southern WI/southern MI from the
afternoon onward. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front/surface trough -
initially near the KS/MO border - will migrate eastward and reach
eastern IA/western IL by 00Z, and extend across portions of western
IN south-southwestward to the MS/OH River confluence by 06Z.
...Eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin...
Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period over
Iowa and persist throughout the day in response to lift associated
with the mid-level trough and steep mid-level lapse rates. With the
warm front located south of this area, mainly isolated elevated
convection should dominate, with small hail possible through midday.
During the afternoon, models indicate potential for surface-based
convective development near the intersection of the surface trough
and warm front that should be lifting slowly northward toward the
WI/IL border area. Though thermodynamic profiles will be modest
owing to weaker mid-level lapse rates and 50s F dewpoints, very
strong flow aloft and momentum transport within the convection
could result in a few damaging wind gusts reaching the surface.
Profiles marginally support updraft rotation, though any tornado
threat will likely be mitigated by storms quickly crossing the warm
front and becoming elevated. Low (5%) severe probabilities have
been extended northwestward to address this threat.
Overnight, convergence along the front is expected to strengthen
somewhat, while ascent increases as the aforementioned low-amplitude
wave migrates northeastward from the Ozarks. Models indicate an
uptick in convection near the front in eastern IL/IN in tandem with
these processes. Though time of day is not particularly favorable
for a higher-end severe threat, convection should strengthen beneath
very strong wind fields aloft and result in a damaging-wind threat.
This threat should also extend northeastward toward the warm front
over southern Michigan. 15% wind-driven severe probabilities are
in place across these areas.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Cook.. 04/10/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
NEW MEXICO...INTO FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...INTO
SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...Synopsis... An upper-level trough, associated with an 80+ knot
mid-level jet, will traverse the south-central CONUS, atop a surface
thermal ridge ahead of a cold front during the day. Intense deepening
of a surface low (with central pressure falling as low as 980-985
mb), will promote a very intense westerly surface wind field across
much of the High Plains into portions of the southern Plains. Deep
boundary-layer mixing and drying, in tandem with the very intense
dynamically driven low-level wind fields, will promote a volatile
atmospheric environment capable of supporting wildfire spread.
Widespread, very strong westerly winds are expected by the mid
to late afternoon hours, when isallobaric flow and boundary-layer
mixing will be maximized. 30+ mph sustained surface westerly winds
are expected behind the dryline, across much of the Four Corners and
southern High Plains regions, coincident with widespread 5-15% RH.
Elevated/critical areas delineate the lateral bounds where fuels
are at least marginally receptive to wildfire spread. However, an
extremely critical delineation remains in place, where the greatest
confidence in winds exceeding 40 mph, RH dropping to 5-10%, and
where fine fuels are most cured, with minimal green-up noted. Here,
atmospheric conditions are very favorable for supporting rapid
wildfire growth and spread despite the modest receptiveness of the
fuels in place, particularly from 21-00Z. Given the intensity of
the isallobaric flow in place, nocturnal cooling and subsequent
stratification of the boundary layer (to impede the downward
transport of higher-momentum air aloft), will only have a limited
impact on dampening atmospheric conditions favorable for fire spread
through the end of the period.
..Squitieri.. 04/10/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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