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LU9DCE > ALERT 24.03.22 19:00z 259 Lines 11880 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4851_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 24-MAR22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 220324/1830Z 4851@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
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Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Thu, 24 Mar 2022 08:51:02 +0000
Thu, 24 Mar 2022 08:51:02 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Thu Mar 24 08:51:02 UTC 2022.
Thu, 24 Mar 2022 08:50:06 +0000
MD 0333 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0333
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022
Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern NY into New England
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 240620Z - 241215Z
SUMMARY...Areas of freezing rain, with rates locally exceeding 0.05
inch per 3 hours, should occur across mainly the higher terrain this
morning. Some sleet may also occur.
DISCUSSION...Pronounced ascent associated with a southwesterly
mid-level jet and southerly low-level jet has encouraged several
broad areas of precipitation to develop across parts of NY and New
England early this morning. While most surface observations show
temperatures above freezing, some locations in the higher terrain
areas across eastern NY into much of New England remain near or
below freezing. Current expectations are for multiple rounds of
showery precipitation to overspread this region over the next
several hours as a large-scale upper trough/low moves slowly
eastward across the central/eastern states. Freezing rain should
occur where temperatures remain below freezing, or will fall below
freezing due to wet bulb cooling processes. Even though temperatures
appear marginal, freezing rain rates locally exceeding 0.05 inch per
3 hours may still occur, particularly in the Adirondack/Catskill
Mountains in NY, and the Green/White Mountains in VT/NH,
respectively. Some sleet may also mix in with the initial
precipitation moving through.
..Gleason.. 03/24/2022
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...
LAT...LON42067405 41727420 41637471 41907497 43437481 44017446
44387389 44427352 44787245 44957188 44897148 44617117
44237102 43877117 43497160 42817242 42487256 42307283
42337309 42477334 42777341 43187327 43777325 43747351
43527366 43297374 42067405
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Thu, 24 Mar 2022 06:21:03 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER...AND THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong/severe storms will be possible through midday over
parts of the Mid-Atlantic region, and primarily during the afternoon
over parts of northern/eastern Florida.
...Mid-Atlantic states into the Carolinas...
An intense 500 mb speed max (110 kt) embedded within a larger-scale
MS Valley trough, will quickly move from AL northeast to the
Mid-Atlantic states during the day.Only weak surface low
development is forecast near the remnants of a wedge front over the
Mid-Atlantic states as the low moves to near the southern New
England coast overnight.A weakly unstable airmass will reside to
the south of the wedge front and east of the primary synoptic front
that will push east across the region during the day.It seems the
risk for a few strong storms will likely focus during the morning.
Uncertainty in both surface-based storm coverage (likely isolated at
best) and the magnitude of buoyancy will likely limit the overall
risk.Nonetheless, forecast soundings for southeast VA into NC show
enlarged and elongated hodographs during the morning.Will maintain
low severe probabilities this forecast.
...FL Peninsula...
Farther south over north FL during the morning, the effective
surface boundary will gradually shift southeast across the northern
half of the peninsula during the day.Scattered showers and
thunderstorms near and behind the boundary during the morning will
likely give way to widely scattered diurnal storms developing over
the central portion of the peninsula during the afternoon.Isolated
damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible.
..Smith/Squitieri.. 03/24/2022
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Thu, 24 Mar 2022 05:38:06 +0000
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Friday.
...Discussion...
Longwave troughing will be maintained over the eastern U.S. Friday,
as the initial/primary trough shifts offshore, while a second
short-wave feature continues digging southeastward -- into the Great
Lakes/Midwest through the end of the period.As this occurs,
western U.S. ridging will be maintained, and thus a persistence of
the fairly high-amplitude flow field over the U.S. through Saturday
morning.
At the surface, a cold front -- emanating from a low progged to lie
just off the New England coast at the start of the period, will
likely have cleared the East Coast by the start of the period, with
the possible exception of far southern Florida and the Keys.In the
wake of the front, high pressure will prevail over much of the
country.
Given the high pressure/subsidence, and prevalence of cold
continental Polar air spreading southeastward in the wake of the
front, stable conditions are expected, precluding appreciable
thunder potential.A storm or two may reside in the vicinity of the
southern Florida coast/Keys at the start of the period, but should
shift south and east away from these areas through the morning.As
such, thunder potential should remain below 10%, precluding any need
to include a thunder area.
..Goss.. 03/24/2022
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Thu, 24 Mar 2022 05:58:45 +0000
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Saturday.
...Discussion...
Cyclonic flow aloft will prevail once again across the eastern half
of the U.S., as an upper trough shifts northeastward and begins
departing the U.S. -- leaving a broad zone of northwesterly flow
aloft across an increasingly large portion of the central and
eastern U.S. through the period.
In the West, a ridge will continue to dominate, amplifying with time
as an eastern Pacific trough gradually approaches the West Coast.
At the surface, high pressure will largely prevail, though lee
troughing downstream of larger mountain ranges can be expected.
Given the generally subsident pattern, and the persistence of stable
continental air across much of the U.S. east of the Rockies, little
appreciable potential for thunderstorms is apparent.One exception
could be over New England during the afternoon, as cold mid-level
temperatures associated with the upper trough translating across the
area in tandem with diurnal heating could permit a flash or two
within an area of low-topped showers.Any such potential would
diminish rapidly into the evening hours.Overall, potential
coverage does not appear to warrant 10% areal inclusion.
..Goss.. 03/24/2022
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Thu, 24 Mar 2022 07:14:00 +0000
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Similar to the situation 24 hours prior, global models continue to
exhibit large differences/spreads in solutions -- both
model-to-model deviations, as well as deviation with members within
intra-model ensembles.The differences revolve around an
eastern-Pacific upper low, which models fairly consistently agree
will approach/reach the West Coast Day 4/Sunday, and then advance
inland across the Southwest and eventually northwestern portions of
Mexico.
At this point however, models begin to diverge substantially, with
the ECMWF evolving the system into an open southern-stream wave,
that then phases with a digging northern-stream to become an
extensive, positively-tilted, progressive trough Day 6/Tuesday.
From there, this trough is shown to progress across the remainder of
the central and eastern U.S., reaching the western Atlantic late on
Day 8/Thursday.
Meanwhile, the GFS deepens the southern-stream system into a large
closed low Day 6-7, as it moves across the Four Corners/southern
Rockies Day 6/Tuesday, and then assumes a slower eastward drift into
the central and southern Plains Day 7/Wednesday, and the
Ozarks/lower Missouri Valley on Day 8/Thursday.
These two evolutions would have drastic implications, with respect
to location and timing of associated convective/possible
severe-weather potential.At this time, differences are too
substantial to confidently highlight any specific days/areas, but
expect a general increase in severe-weather potential into at least
central portions of the country during the latter states of the
medium-range period.
Read more
Thu, 24 Mar 2022 08:50:56 +0000
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...
...Synopsis...
A long-wave trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley today, with
strong northwesterly flow overspreading a mixed boundary layer
across the central U.S. Dry and breezy conditions will develop
across the Plains as stronger flow aloft mixes down toward the
surface. Widespread 15+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds
will develop across the central High Plains into southern Texas,
coinciding with 10-20 percent RH atop very dry fuels that are quite
receptive to fire spread, hence Elevated highlights. Critical
highlights also remain in place across Deep South Texas. The primary
driver for the Critical highlights is the extreme receptiveness of
the fuels, with forecast ERCs exceeding the 95th percentile. While
winds may struggle to sustain at 20 mph for lengthy periods of time,
the 15 percent RH and extremely dry fuels should compensate to
support conditions favorable for significant wildfire spread.
..Squitieri.. 03/24/2022
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Thu, 24 Mar 2022 06:49:26 +0000
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA...
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will build across the Desert Southwest, with a
well-defined mid-level trough cresting the ridge and traversing the
northern and central Plains tomorrow/Friday. A dry boundary layer
will develop during the afternoon and encourage downward mixing of
the stronger flow aloft to support dry and windy conditions
conducive to fire spread. Widespread 15-25 mph sustained
northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 15-25 percent RH from
the northern High Plains southeastward into eastern Nebraska and
South Dakota. Critical highlights have been introduced where RH may
dip to 15 percent by afternoon peak heating, and where fuels are
critically dry (i.e., observed ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile
and forecast 10-hour fuel moisture dropping below 10 percent).
Portions of eastern Nebraska may also experience Critical
meteorological conditions, but recent appreciable precipitation
accumulations may dampen the robustness of the wildfire-spread
threat to a degree.
..Squitieri.. 03/24/2022
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Thu, 24 Mar 2022 06:51:26 +0000
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