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LU9DCE > ALERT 31.03.22 18:44z 481 Lines 19220 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 31-MAR.22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DB0RES<PI8CDR<GB7YEW<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 220331/1830Z 5084@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Thu, 31 Mar 2022
09:48:02 +0000 Thu, 31 Mar 2022 09:48:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC Tornado Watch 84 WW 84 TORNADO AL FL GA CW 310425Z - 311200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 84 NWS
Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Eastern Alabama Florida Panhandle Western Georgia Coastal Waters
* Effective this Thursday morning from 1225 AM until 800 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...The severe storm/tornado risk will shift east-northeastward
across the region through the pre-dawn hours. The most intense storms
and tornado risk will likely be focused across southeast Alabama,
southwest Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle through sunrise, although
some severe/tornado potential may exist as far north as northeast
Alabama and northwest Georgia given the very strong low-level
shear/helicity.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
east and west of a line from 30 miles east northeast of Gadsden AL to
40 miles southeast of Panama City FL. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 80...WW 82...WW 83...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface
and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to
60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm
motion vector 23040.
...Guyer
Read more
Thu, 31 Mar 2022 09:47:02 +0000
SPC Tornado Watch 84 Status Reports WW 0084 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 84
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW PFN TO 15
E DHN TO 40 NNE DHN TO 10 SW AUO TO 20 NNW LGC TO 30 ESE RMG.
..BROYLES..03/31/22
ATTN...WFO...BMX...TAE...FFC...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 84
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC067-069-081-113-311040-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HENRY HOUSTON LEE RUSSELL
FLC005-013-037-039-045-063-073-077-129-133-311040-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN GADSDEN
GULF JACKSON LEON LIBERTY
WAKULLA WASHINGTON
GAC007-037-053-061-077-087-095-099-131-145-149-197-199-201-205-
215-239-243-253-259-263-273-285-307-311040-
GA
Read more
Thu, 31 Mar 2022 09:47:03 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 83 Status Reports WW 0083 Status
Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 83
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW RMG TO 40
SW LOZ.
..BROYLES..03/31/22
ATTN...WFO...FFC...MRX...OHX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 83
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
GAC047-055-083-111-123-213-295-313-310840-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CATOOSA CHATTOOGA DADE FANNIN
GILMER MURRAY WALKER WHITFIELD
TNC001-007-011-013-065-105-107-121-123-129-139-143-145-151- 310840-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BLEDSOE BRADLEY CAMPBELL
HAMILTON LOUDON MCMINN MEIGS
MONROE MORGAN POLK RHEA ROANE
SCOTT
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
Read more
Thu, 31 Mar 2022 07:33:03 +0000
SPC Tornado Watch 82 Status Reports WW 0082 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 82
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S PNS TO 20 NE
CEW TO 20 SSW TOI.
..BROYLES..03/31/22
ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 82
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC091-310840-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
OKALOOSA
GMZ635-636-655-310840-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
WESTERN CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY
EASTERN CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM OKALOOSA-WALTON COUNTY LINE TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
NM
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Thu, 31 Mar 2022 07:32:04 +0000
SPC MD 374 MD 0374 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 84... FOR
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0374 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354
AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022
Areas affected...Southeast Alabama...Southwest Georgia...Florida
Panhandle
Concerning...Tornado Watch 84...
Valid 310854Z - 311100Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 84 continues.
SUMMARY...A threat for damaging wind gusts, isolated large hail and a
tornado or two will continue early this morning across parts of
southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. New
watch issuance will need be to considered to the east of the current
watch.
DISCUSSION...Latest mosaic radar imagery shows an organized convective
line extending from near Dothan, Alabama extending north-northeastward
to Columbus, Georgia. A shortwave trough with a band of large-scale
ascent is located over far southwest Georgia, evident on water-vapor
imagery. This feature will move northeastward this morning into
south-central Georgia providing support for continued thunderstorm
development. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP out of Valdosta, Georgia has
0-6 km shear near 65 kt with a looped hodograph. This will be
favorable for supercells embedded in the line with a potential for
tornadoes. These storms could also produce wind damage and isolated
large hail, especially with segments that obtain bowing structure.
The severe threat should continue through daybreak. New weather watch
issuance may become necessary to the east of WW 84.
..Broyles.. 03/31/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...
LAT...LON 32328379 32828446 32648499 32208525 30968563 30428613
29968648 29518632 29098557 29028455 29598387 30078370
32328379
Read more
Thu, 31 Mar 2022 08:55:03 +0000
SPC Mar 31, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM
CDT Thu Mar 31 2022
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY TO NORTHERN FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Southeast into the
Hudson Valley today. Damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes should
be the main threats.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will continue to progress across the East Coast as
a 984 mb surface low ejects into Canada from the Great Lakes today. A
surface cold front will extend from the Upper Hudson Valley to the
Florida Panhandle at the start of the day and advance to the East
Coast tonight. Warm-sector buoyancy will be modest ahead of the front
given the presence of widespread cloud cover and ongoing storms.
Nonetheless, a broad 60+ kt 850 mb southerly jet will overspread the
East Coast, overlaid by an 80-100 kt westerly 500 mb jet streak,
contributing to deep-layer ascent and shear supporting organized
strong to severe storms.
...Central Florida into South Carolina...
A broken line of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms should be
ongoing across parts of the FL Panhandle into southern and central GA
at the start of the period. A second mid-level impulse will pivot
around the broader upper trough and traverse the Southeast as the
first mid-level impulse ejects into the Hudson Valley during the
afternoon, helping to sustain convection. Latest guidance consensus
suggests that modest heating and low-level moisture advection ahead of
the storms will promote marginal buoyancy, with 500-750 J/kg SBCAPE
possible. The eastern Gulf Coastal area is expected to remain under
the entrance of region of an eastward-shifting low-level jet through
early afternoon, contributing to modestly curved hodographs and 200
m2/s2 0-1km SRH. As such, line segments and semi-discrete supercell
structures may develop/persist across the FL Panhandle into SC, posing
a threat for damaging gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes.
...North Carolina into the Lower Hudson Valley...
A mid-level impulse will eject into the Hudson Valley during the
afternoon and overspread the core of the low-level jet, promoting an
intense tropospheric vertical wind profile and associated strong
deep-layer shear. Enlarged hodographs from the Carolina Piedmont
northward suggest storm organization with any convection that can
intensify and become surface-based. The primary factor limiting the
introduction of higher probabilities this outlook is scant buoyancy.
5.5-6.5 C/km low- and mid-level lapse rates atop 55-60F surface
dewpoints may promote SBCAPE up to 750 J/kg across North Carolina, to
250-500 J/kg into the Hudson Valley. Damaging gusts and a brief
tornado may accompany any sustained, robust updrafts, hence the
maintenance of a Category 2/Slight risk. Given 50-60 kt flow at/just
below 500 meters AGL and the enlarged hodographs, higher wind/tornado
probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if it becomes
evident that greater surface-based instability will be realized.
..Squitieri/Bentley.. 03/31/2022
Read more
Thu, 31 Mar 2022 05:59:02 +0000
SPC Mar 31, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM
CDT Thu Mar 31 2022
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Panhandle into
Oklahoma and North Texas as well as across the Florida Peninsula on
Friday.
...FL...
An expansive area of high pressure is expected to be centered over the
Mid-South early Friday morning. This area of high pressure is forecast
to shift northeastward throughout day, and the dry and stable
post-frontal conditions associated with it will preclude thunderstorm
development across the majority of eastern CONUS. The only exception
is across the FL Peninsula, where isolated afternoon thunderstorms are
possible in the vicinity of a weakening frontal zone.
...TX/OK Panhandles across most of OK and north TX...
Farther west, an upper trough is forecast to extend from the Canadian
Prairie Provinces southward through the central and southern High
Plains early Friday morning. Surface pressures will lower across the
central/southern Plains ahead of this system, with a low likely
emerging out of the central High Plains and moving into the KS/NE
during the afternoon and evening. A cold front attendant to this low
will move southeastward through the central High Plains and TX and OK
Panhandles during the afternoon and evening.
Moderate low-level southerly flow is anticipated across the southern
Plains throughout the day, but low-level moisture will be slow to
return due the previous frontal intrusion. As a result, dewpoints will
likely only be in the upper 40s ahead of the front across the TX and
OK Panhandle. Even so, strong daytime heating coupled with steep
mid-level lapse rates will result in modest buoyancy. This buoyancy,
in tandem with forcing for ascent along the front (augmented by ascent
attendant an approaching southern-stream shortwave trough), is
expected to result in thunderstorm development across the central
TX/OK Panhandles during the afternoon.
High storm bases and outflow-dominant structure could result in a few
strong gusts. However, low storm coverage and currently low
probability of updraft maturation merits omitting any severe
probabilities with this outlook.
..Mosier.. 03/31/2022
Read more
Thu, 31 Mar 2022 06:00:42 +0000
SPC Mar 31, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM
CDT Thu Mar 31 2022
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Florida
Peninsula on Saturday.
...Synopsis...
Upper troughing is forecast to extend across the MS Valley early
Saturday. This upper trough is expected to develop eastward throughout
the day, with the southern portion progressing ahead of the northern
portion. This evolution will result in a trend towards deamplification
and increased negative tilt. By early Sunday, a less amplified,
predominantly zonal pattern will cover much of the CONUS.
At the surface, a low attendant to the shortwave mentioned previously
is expected to begin the day near the IA/MO border, before then
continuing gradually eastward across the OH Valley. A cold front
attendant to this low will move southeastward across the southern
Plains and Mid/Lower MS Valley.
The short period between this front and the frontal intrusion
preceding it will limit low-level moisture advection, keeping the more
favorable moisture and buoyancy over the central Gulf coast and FL.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible in these areas as a weak surface
low moves eastward along a remnant frontal zone. Highest storm
coverage is anticipated over FL, where the presence of a strong
subtropical jet and moderate buoyancy could result in a few strong to
severe storms.
..Mosier.. 03/31/2022
Read more
Thu, 31 Mar 2022 07:16:58 +0000
SPC Mar 31, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359
AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A predominantly zonal upper pattern is forecast across the central and
southern CONUS early D4/Sunday. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is
expected to progress quickly eastward through this zonal flow from the
central Plains into the Mid MS Valley. A surface low and cold front
will accompany this shortwave, with the cold front pushing into the
southern Plains during the late afternoon/evening. Differences within
the guidance exist regarding the quality of the low-level moisture
return (and resulting buoyancy) ahead of this cold front. Some
isolated severe-thunderstorm potential may materialize if enough
low-level moisture is advected northward to overcome anticipated
capping. However, given the differences within the guidance,
predictability is low.
A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move across the
Southwest, southern Plains and into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley in
D5/Monday. Some severe potential appears likely across TX on
D5/Monday, but differences with the guidance regarding low-level
moisture and location of the surface features results in too much
uncertainty to delineate an area.
This lead shortwave is expected to continue eastward across the TN
Valley/Southeast on D6/Tuesday, while another moves in its wake across
the southern Plains. Additionally, a northern-stream wave is a
expected to mature into a deep mid-latitude cyclone over the central
Plains on D6/Tuesday. A strong cold front associated with this cyclone
is forecast to begin pushing southeastward across the Plains on
D6/Tuesday and through the MS Valley on D7/Wednesday. Some severe
thunderstorms are possible with both the lead shortwave and succeeding
cold front. However, continued differences within the guidance
regarding the speed/timing of these systems, as well as buoyancy
within the warm sector, limit predictability at this forecast range.
Read more
Thu, 31 Mar 2022 09:01:55 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249
AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will move from the Southeast into the Northeast
CONUS today. A strong surface low, currently in the Great Lakes, will
move into eastern Canada by this evening. The pressure field from this
surface low is expansive, and windy conditions are expected across the
entire eastern CONUS today. Most areas will be plenty moist, which
will limit fire weather concerns. However, some dry conditions are
expected across Florida with relative humidity in the 30 to 40 percent
range. In addition, sustained winds of 15 to 18 mph are expected in
this same region. Therefore, there is an elevated fire weather threat
across portions of the central Florida Peninsula this afternoon.
..Bentley.. 03/31/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Thu, 31 Mar 2022 05:51:25 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257
AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis...
A weak mid-level trough will cross the central Rockies on Friday. As a
result, a compact lee cyclone will develop and move south along the
High Plains. This will lead to some dry and breezy conditions from the
OK/TX Panhandles southward into portions of West Texas. The latest
guidance shows some critical conditions, especially across the Texas
Panhandle. However, portions of this area are receiving light rain and
snow this morning. This may lead to some questionable fuel dryness
even with all day Thursday for fine fuels to cure. Therefore, will
wait to get a better handle on fuels status before considering a
critical delineation.
Additionally, thunderstorms are forecast to develop somewhere across
the central or eastern Texas Panhandle. These storms will likely be on
the drier side and could pose a threat for fire ignitions.
Considering the aforementioned fuel questions and the relatively small
region with the potential for dry thunderstorms, will not add a
delineation at this time.
..Bentley.. 03/31/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Thu, 31 Mar 2022 05:58:26 +0000
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