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LU9DCE > ALERT 01.04.22 19:00z 313 Lines 15072 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5125_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 01-ABR.22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 220401/1731Z 5125@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Fri, 01 Apr 2022
09:54:02 +0000 Fri, 01 Apr 2022 09:54:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Apr 1 09:54:02 UTC 2022 No
watches are valid as of Fri Apr 1 09:54:02 UTC 2022. Fri, 01
Apr 2022 09:53:06 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Fri Apr 1 09:54:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Apr 1
09:54:02 UTC 2022. Fri, 01 Apr 2022 09:53:05 +0000
SPC Apr 1, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM
CDT Fri Apr 01 2022
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the
Florida Peninsula on Saturday. Damaging wind gusts and hail will be
the main hazards with these storms.
...Synopsis...
A midlevel shortwave trough will pivot eastward from the Mid/Lower MS
Valley Saturday morning to the southeast U.S. coast by around 00z/Sun.
As this occurs, modest height falls are expected across the Gulf of
Mexico and FL, resulting in moderately strong deep-layer southwesterly
flow overspreading the region. At the surface, a low over the Mid-MS
Valley will shift east across the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic. A
trailing cold front will sweep east/southeast across the southern
Plains and Southeast, becoming positioned across northern FL into the
central Gulf of Mexico by Sunday morning. Prior frontal intrusions
across the southern U.S. will keep boundary-layer moisture confined to
near/just offshore the central Gulf Coast and across the FL Peninsula.
Strong heating of a moist airmass will result in weak to moderate
destabilization, and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
during the afternoon across the FL Peninsula, some of which may be
severe.
...FL...
Mid 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints are forecast beneath modest
midlevel lapse rates (6.5-7.5 C/km). While low-level flow is expected
to remain fairly weak, increasing mid and upper-level winds will
result in effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt. Strong
heating to the south of a stationary boundary draped across northern
FL will aid in development of 1000-2000 J/kg and steepening low-level
lapse rates. Thunderstorms may be focused along two separate areas
during the afternoon/evening, the first being in a zone of low-level
convergence along sea breeze boundaries across eastern portions of the
Peninsula. Forecast wind profiles will support organized cells,
including supercells. Elongated hodographs coupled with steep midlevel
lapse rates suggest hail will be possible with these storms, while
steepening low-level lapse rates support strong gusts. While a tornado
or two can not be ruled out, especially on the sea breeze boundary or
via storm interactions, modest 0-2 km flow and weak SRH/small 0-3 km
hodographs suggest this threat will remain limited.
The second focus for thunderstorm activity may be associated with a
developing MCS/bow over the Gulf of Mexico tracking east/southeast
through the day and into the evening hours. While guidance varies on
the evolution of this possible MCS, most show storms moving over the
western FL coast by late afternoon. Bowing segments associated with
this activity could pose a threat for damaging gusts into early
evening.
..Leitman.. 04/01/2022
Read more
Fri, 01 Apr 2022 05:45:50 +0000
SPC Apr 1, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM
CDT Fri Apr 01 2022
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the central and southern Florida Peninsula Sunday afternoon. Strong
wind gusts and hail may accompany these storms.
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper trough oriented from the lower Great Lakes to the
Mid-Atlantic vicinity Sunday morning will shift east across New
England and offshore over the Atlantic. Moderate westerly deep-layer
flow will persist over FL, and strong to isolated severe storms will
be possible once again Sunday afternoon across parts of the
central/southern Peninsula.
Another mid/upper shortwave trough will shift east from the
northern/central High Plains to the Mid-MS Valley vicinity while a
weaker shortwave impulse tracks across the southern Rockies to the
southern Plains late in the period. Moisture return ahead of the
Plains shortwave troughs will be modest, with 60s dewpoints remaining
confined to south TX. Dewpoints into the low 50s may make it as far
north as southern OK before a southward-advancing cold front shifts
south across the central Plains and into the OK/TX Panhandles and
northern OK early Monday. Isolated elevated thunderstorms will be
possible in a low-level warm advection regime Sunday night/Monday
morning across parts of northwest TX/southwest OK. Moderate shear and
steepening midlevel lapse rates could perhaps support small hail late
in the period, but overall severe potential appear limited by poor
boundary-layer moisture and weak instability.
...FL Peninsula...
Moderate westerly flow will persist across FL where a moist airmass
will remain to the south of a quasi-stationary surface boundary. Mid
to upper 60s dewpoints beneath modest midlevel lapse rates coupled
with strong afternoon heating should manifest MLCAPE values around
1500-2000 J/kg. While 0-3 km flow will remain rather weak, effective
shear magnitudes around 35-45 kt should result in organized
convection. Steep low-level lapse rates will foster potential for
isolated strong gusts, while somewhat elongated hodographs and
midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km support marginal hail potential.
..Leitman.. 04/01/2022
Read more
Fri, 01 Apr 2022 07:11:01 +0000
SPC Apr 1, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403
AM CDT Fri Apr 01 2022
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A complex pattern is evident during the Day 4-8 period with several
mid/upper shortwave troughs, surface lows and cold fronts anticipated
to impact severe potential across parts of Texas into the southeastern
U.S. through Day 6/Wed.
...Day 4/Monday - Central/Eastern TX into Western LA...
A mid/upper trough is forecast to shift east from the southwestern
U.S./northern Mexico to OK/TX. A stalled front is forecast to extend
from northwest TX to the Lower OH Valley early Monday. Southerly
low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northward across
central/east TX and the lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast. As the
western trough ejects eastward, a weak surface low is forecast to
develop over TX and shift east toward AR/LA. While uncertainty exists
in the northward extent of better moisture transport, a corridor of
moderate instability amid 40+ kt effective shear will exist from
central TX into western LA. Strong to severe thunderstorms, including
supercells, will be possible from central/eastern TX into western LA.
All severe hazards will be possible.
...Day 5/Tuesday - Lower MS Valley/Central Gulf Coast Vicinity...
The positive-tilt mid/upper trough extending from the Ozark Plateau
into TX will shift east/northeast across the TN Valley to the
Mid-Atlantic. A strong warm advection regime will exist across the
lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states as enhanced deep-layer
southwesterly flow overspreads the region. There is some uncertainty
in how much destabilization will occur as clouds and widespread
rainfall could envelop much of the area. However, ensemble guidance
indicates at least pockets of modest destabilization within a strongly
sheared environment, as a weak surface low lifts northeast from AR/LA
to the central Appalachians through the evening hours. This should
support at least isolated severe potential.
...Day 6/Wednesday - TN Valley/southern Appalachians Vicinity...
A deep upper low and associated intense upper trough over the
Plains/Upper Midwest will develop eastward across much of the central
U.S. A strong cold front is forecast to advance east/southeast across
the southern and central U.S. Ensemble guidance indicates adequate
moisture will reside ahead of the front across the TN Valley into the
southern Appalachians with temperatures warming into the mid 70s to
low 80s. Strong deep-layer shear, mainly parallel to the surface
boundary will support potential QLCS development and an attendant
damaging wind threat across portions of the region.
...Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday...
The central U.S. mid/upper trough will move offshore during the end of
the period. Some severe potential could develop across parts of the
Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic, but guidance varies considerably in timing
of both surface and upper level features, resulting in low confidence.
Read more
Fri, 01 Apr 2022 09:06:53 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239
AM CDT Fri Apr 01 2022
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected this afternoon across parts of the
southern High Plains, including the potential for isolated dry
thunderstorms. Early-morning water vapor imagery reveals a somewhat
diffuse upper-level disturbance over the central Rockies. This feature
is expected to shift to the east/southeast through the day and
slightly deepen amid modest mid-level cold advection associated with
an approaching cold front (noted in recent 700 mb analyses). Very
modest surface pressure falls are noted across east CO, but lee
cyclogenesis should become more pronounced through the day as the
upper wave ejects into the Plains.
...Southeast NM and southwest TX...
Both surface observations and 00Z soundings show a very dry air mass
in place across southwest TX/southeast NM this morning (dewpoint
values near the 10% percentile for early April). This air mass will be
reinforced by downslope warming/drying via increasing westerly winds
by early afternoon as a dryline tightens to the east across west TX.
Wind speeds between 15-20 mph will be common with frequent gusts up to
25-30 mph possible. RH values are forecast to fall into the low to mid
teens, which should support widespread elevated to locally critical
fire weather conditions. Fuels across the region remain receptive,
denoted by fire activity in recent days, and will support a widespread
fire weather concern. Confidence in the duration and coverage of this
threat diminishes with northward extent into east-central NM where
increasing cloud cover, scattered showers, and recent precipitation
may limit the fire weather potential (despite higher probability of
sustained 20 mph winds).
...West-Central Texas into northwest OK and southwest KS...
Fire weather concerns are also possible to the east of the dryline
this afternoon, but may be more conditional on the quality of moisture
return through the day. Early morning surface obs show dewpoints in
the 50s already in place across south TX. However, the 00Z CRP
sounding suggests this moisture resides in a rather shallow boundary
layer. As south to southeasterly winds increase through the day this
moisture will advect northwestward into west-central TX and parts of
western OK. Daytime mixing should mitigate the effects of this
moisture return to a degree, but confidence in exact RH reductions is
somewhat low. Nonetheless, increasing flow near 850 mb ahead of the
approaching wave/deepening trough will support widespread sustained
winds near 20 mph with gusts up to 30-35 mph possible. Given the
strong winds and receptive fuels, fire weather concerns are expected
despite more marginal RH reductions. The duration of this threat may
be limited for the eastern TX Panhandle, western OK, and southwest KS
due to developing showers/thunderstorms in the mid to late afternoon
hours.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
00Z soundings under the upper-level disturbance show cold temperatures
aloft and ample mid-level moisture. This thermodynamic environment
will advect to the east/southeast over the next 24 hours. The
combination of cool, moist conditions atop a warm, dry boundary layer
will support sufficient instability for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle.
Although the dry sub-cloud layer may be somewhat shallow (around 2 km
deep), fast storm motions may limit rainfall amounts for any one
location and support an isolated dry thunderstorm threat.
..Moore.. 04/01/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Fri, 01 Apr 2022 05:40:27 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124
AM CDT Fri Apr 01 2022
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Widespread fire weather potential will generally be limited for
Saturday, though a few localized concerns may materialize across the
southern and central High Plains. The upper-level low currently over
the central Rockies is forecast to quickly shift into the southeastern
CONUS by Saturday. In its wake, weaker zonal flow over the southern
U.S. is expected with surface high pressure across the Plains. This
synoptic pattern will generally favor quiescent conditions for regions
with the driest fuels. Across the northern Rockies, a progressive
shortwave trough will aid in deepening a lee trough along the northern
to central High Plains. Downslope west to southwesterly winds off the
higher terrain will likely yield areas of elevated wind/RH conditions
across parts of eastern WY and eastern NM. Given weak to modest
upper-level support and a stagnant surface pattern, such conditions
will likely be confined to close proximity of terrain features in
areas with marginally receptive fuels and/or recent precipitation.
..Moore.. 04/01/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Fri, 01 Apr 2022 06:26:27 +0000
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