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LU9DCE > ALERT 03.04.22 08:04z 760 Lines 27181 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5064_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 30-MAR.22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 220331/0931Z 5064@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 - Eduardo A. Castillo
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Thu, 31 Mar 2022
01:35:01 +0000 Thu, 31 Mar 2022 01:35:01 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC Tornado Watch 82 WW 82 TORNADO AL FL MS CW 302335Z - 310900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 82 NWS
Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 635 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern Alabama Florida Panhandle Southeast Mississippi Coastal
Waters
* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 635 PM
until 400 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread
damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Bands of well-organized fast-moving storms, along with the
possibility of semi-discrete supercells, will continue to develop
east-northeastward across the region during the evening into the
overnight. An increasingly moist air mass, with near 70F surface
dewpoints near the coast early this evening, will continue to develop
northward ahead of these storms. A very strong low-level jet, with
winds 1-2 kilometers above ground around 55-65 kt, will support the
possibility of tornadoes aside from widespread damaging winds.
Conditions will support the potential for a few strong/potentially
intense tornadoes into the overnight.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
north and south of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Gulfport MS
to 45 miles north northeast of Crestview FL. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 76...WW 77...WW 78...WW
79...WW 80...WW 81...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface
and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion
vector 24035.
...Guyer
Read more
Thu, 31 Mar 2022 00:23:02 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 81 WW 81 SEVERE TSTM IL IN KY
302310Z - 310500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 81 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 710 PM EDT Wed Mar 30
2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Illinois Southern Indiana Central Kentucky
* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 710 PM
until 100 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two
possible
SUMMARY...Fast-moving linearly organized bands of
showers/thunderstorms will continue northeastward across the region
this evening. While moisture and instability will become more limited
with east/northeastward extent, very strong deep-layer/low-level winds
will support the possibility of convectively enhanced wind damage even
where minimal instability exists.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northwest of
Bloomington IN to 35 miles southeast of Bowling Green KY. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable
for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in
these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather
conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 76...WW 77...WW 78...WW
79...WW 80...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1
inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 22045.
...Guyer
Read more
Thu, 31 Mar 2022 00:24:03 +0000
SPC Tornado Watch 80 WW 80 TORNADO AL TN 302230Z - 310600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 80 NWS
Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 530 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northern and Central Alabama Middle Tennessee
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning from
530 PM until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Widespread damaging winds expected with isolated significant
gusts to 80 mph possible
SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of storms will continue quickly
east-northeastward this evening into Middle TN and northern/central
Alabama. Very strong low-level/deep-layer winds will support the
potential for tornadoes and widespread damaging winds as additional
moistening occurs into the region.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles north northwest of Nashville TN
to 25 miles west southwest of Selma AL. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 76...WW 77...WW 78...WW 79...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface
and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion
vector 23045.
...Guyer
Read more
Thu, 31 Mar 2022 00:26:03 +0000
SPC Tornado Watch 79 WW 79 TORNADO IL IN KY MO 301945Z - 310300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 79 NWS
Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southeast Illinois Southwest Indiana Western Kentucky Southeast
Missouri
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 245 PM
until 1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds and isolated
significant gusts to 75
mph likely
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify this afternoon over southeast
Missouri and track eastward across southern Illinois and western
Kentucky. Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are possible along
this line.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
north and south of a line from 25 miles north of Poplar Bluff MO to 10
miles northeast of Owensboro KY. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 76...WW 77...WW 78...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface
and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion
vector 24035.
...Hart
Read more
Thu, 31 Mar 2022 00:16:03 +0000
SPC Tornado Watch 78 WW 78 TORNADO LA MS CW 301845Z - 310200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 78 NWS
Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southeast Louisiana Southern Mississippi Coastal Waters
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 145 PM
until 900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Scattered
damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms currently over western Louisiana will move
eastward through the afternoon, affecting the watch area. Locally
damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 20 miles north northwest of Mc Comb MS to
45 miles south of Houma LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see
the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 76...WW 77...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface
and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion
vector 24035.
...Hart
Read more
Thu, 31 Mar 2022 00:18:04 +0000
SPC Tornado Watch 77 WW 77 TORNADO AR LA MO MS TN 301715Z -
310100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 77 NWS
Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Eastern Arkansas Northeast Louisiana Missouri Bootheel Northern and
Central Mississippi West Tennessee
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1215 PM
until 800 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread
damaging winds expected with isolated significant
gusts to 80 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms over central Arkansas/Louisiana will
intensify and track rapidly eastward this afternoon across Mississippi
and western Tennessee. These storms are expected to result in
widespread wind damage, including the potential for significant severe
gusts. Tornadoes will also be possible along the line, and with any
supercells that can form ahead of the line.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles
east and west of a line from 25 miles northwest of Dyersburg TN to 20
miles southwest of Natchez MS. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 75...WW 76...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface
and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion
vector 24035.
...Hart
Read more
Thu, 31 Mar 2022 00:20:05 +0000
SPC Tornado Watch 82 Status Reports WW 0082 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 82
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..LYONS..03/31/22
ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 82
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-013-023-025-035-039-041-053-097-099-129-131-310140-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN BUTLER CHOCTAW CLARKE
CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW ESCAMBIA
MOBILE MONROE WASHINGTON WILCOX
FLC033-091-113-310140-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA
MSC039-041-045-047-059-109-111-131-153-310140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK HARRISON
JACKSON PEARL RIVER
Read more
Thu, 31 Mar 2022 00:23:03 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 81 Status Reports WW 0081 Status
Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 81
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..LYONS..03/31/22
ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...LMK...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 81
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC023-033-035-079-310140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND JASPER
INC005-013-019-021-025-031-037-043-055-061-071-077-079-081-093-
101-105-109-117-119-123-143-145-153-167-175-310140-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTHOLOMEW BROWN CLARK CLAY
CRAWFORD DECATUR DUBOIS FLOYD
GREENE HARRISON JACKSON JEFFERSON JENNINGS
JOHNSON LAWRENCE MARTIN MONROE
MORGAN ORANGE OWEN PERRY SCOTT
SHELBY SULLIVAN VIGO WASHINGTON
Read more
Thu, 31 Mar 2022 00:24:03 +0000
SPC Tornado Watch 80 Status Reports WW 0080 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 80
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0362
..LYONS..03/31/22
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...OHX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 80
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-007-009-021-033-037-043-047-049-051-055-057-059-063-065-
071-073-075-077-079-083-085-089-091-093-095-101-103-105-107-115-
117-119-121-125-127-133-310140-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BIBB BLOUNT CHILTON
COLBERT COOSA CULLMAN DALLAS
DEKALB ELMORE ETOWAH FAYETTE FRANKLIN
GREENE HALE JACKSON JEFFERSON
LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE LOWNDES
MADISON MARENGO MARION MARSHALL
MONTGOMERY MORGAN PERRY PICKENS ST. CLAIR
SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA TUSCALOOSA
WALKER WINSTON
TNC003-015-021-031-037-043-051-055-081-083-085-099-101-103-117-
119-125-127-135-147-149-161-165-169-181-187-189-310140-
Read more
Thu, 31 Mar 2022 00:26:04 +0000
SPC Tornado Watch 79 Status Reports WW 0079 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 79
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW HOP TO 50
ENE PAH TO 30 SW EVV TO 25 W EVV TO 50 NNW EVV.
..LYONS..03/31/22
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...IND...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 79
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC101-185-310140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LAWRENCE WABASH
INC027-051-083-125-129-147-163-173-310140-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DAVIESS GIBSON KNOX PIKE
POSEY SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK
KYC033-047-059-101-107-149-177-219-221-233-310140-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALDWELL CHRISTIAN DAVIESS HENDERSON
HOPKINS MCLEAN
Read more
Thu, 31 Mar 2022 00:16:04 +0000
SPC Tornado Watch 78 Status Reports WW 0078 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 78
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE 7R4 TO 40
NNW HUM TO 40 S MCB TO 10 ESE MCB TO 30 NE MCB.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0363
..LYONS..03/31/22
ATTN...WFO...LIX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 78
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC051-057-071-075-087-089-093-095-103-109-117-310140-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES
ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE
BAPTISTST. TAMMANY TERREBONNE WASHINGTON
MSC147-310140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
WALTHALL
GMZ530-534-538-550-552-555-310140-
CW
Read more
Thu, 31 Mar 2022 00:18:05 +0000
SPC Tornado Watch 77 Status Reports WW 0077 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 77
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE MCB TO 45
WNW MEI TO 45 WSW CBM TO 30 NW CBM TO 20 N TUP TO 45 SSE MKL TO 30 E
MKL TO 45 WSW HOP.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0361
..LYONS..03/31/22
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...MEG...SHV...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 77
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MSC023-025-031-035-057-061-065-067-069-073-075-081-087-091-095-
099-101-103-105-117-129-141-159-310140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARKE CLAY COVINGTON FORREST
ITAWAMBA JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES
KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LEE LOWNDES
MARION MONROE NESHOBA NEWTON
NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA PRENTISS SMITH TISHOMINGO
WINSTON
TNC005-039-071-079-310140-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON DECATUR HARDIN
Read more
Thu, 31 Mar 2022 00:20:05 +0000
SPC Tornado Watch 76 Status Reports WW 0076 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 76
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW 7R4 TO 35
NE LFT.
..LYONS..03/30/22
ATTN...WFO...LCH...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 76
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC045-099-101-302340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
IBERIA ST. MARTIN ST. MARY
GMZ435-455-302340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
VERMILION BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
OUT 20 NM
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Thu, 31 Mar 2022 00:00:11 +0000
SPC MD 366 MD 0366 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 80... FOR FAR
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND FAR WESTERN ALABAMA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0366 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0833
PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022
Areas affected...Far eastern Mississippi and far western Alabama.
Concerning...Tornado Watch 80...
Valid 310133Z - 310230Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 80 continues.
SUMMARY...Locally higher tornado threat over the next 1 to 2 hours.
DISCUSSION...A supercell has developed strong low-level rotation in
far northwest Greene County, Alabama. This cell will be absorbed by
the main squall line in the next 15 minutes or so when it becomes less
clear how the evolution will continue. At a minimum, an increased
threat for significant wind is possible in the vicinity of this storm
merger.
Farther south, a line embedded supercell is moving from Lauderdale
county Mississippi into Sumter county, Alabama. This storm has had the
tallest echo tops for awhile, and has had a few TDS observed across
Lauderdale county. The environment ahead of this storm remains
favorable for tornadoes. In fact, low-level flow has recently backed
in this region which further increases low-level streamwise vorticity.
Therefore, this storm will continue to pose a tornado threat, and
potentially a strong tornado threat over the next 1 to 2 hours.
..Bentley.. 03/31/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...
LAT...LON 33208854 33498820 33498776 33058765 32408779 32128815
32098851 32138868 32308874 32768859 33208854
Read more
Thu, 31 Mar 2022 01:34:03 +0000
SPC MD 365 MD 0365 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 80... FOR SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY...MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND FAR NORTHERN ALABAMA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0365 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756
PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022
Areas affected...southern Kentucky...Middle Tennessee and far northern
Alabama.
Concerning...Tornado Watch 80...
Valid 310056Z - 310230Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 80 continues.
SUMMARY...A damaging wind and brief tornado threat should continue
into the late evening.
DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms continues across middle
Tennessee. This line is starting to approach the eastern extent of the
better low-level moisture with dewpoints in the upper 40s in
Nashville, TN. The low-level jet continues to be very strong ahead of
these storms with flow as strong as 70 knots at 2km. This strong
low-level flow will aid in damaging winds potential along the line,
even as storm intensity starts to weaken as storms move east of the
better instability. In fact, as observed farther north in Kentucky,
there may be a brief window where strong downbursts are favored as
storms move into a drier, more mixed, low-level airmass.
..Bentley.. 03/31/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON 36568814 36948776 37098665 36698588 34998570 34558678
34568785 34648818 35408810 36078801 36568814
Read more
Thu, 31 Mar 2022 00:57:03 +0000
SPC MD 364 MD 0364 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 81...
FOR FAR EASTERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA...AND PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
Mesoscale Discussion 0364 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0724
PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022
Areas affected...Far eastern Illinois...southern Indiana...and
portions of west-central Kentucky.
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 81...
Valid 310024Z - 310200Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 81 continues.
SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat will continue through the late
evening.
DISCUSSION...The squall line has become less organized over the past
hour across west-central Kentucky, eastern Illinois, and southwest
Indiana with multiple linear segments now apparent on reflectivity.
Despite this seemingly less organized appearance, wind damage reports
have actually increased recently with measured gusts of 73 and 75 mph.
This may be due to a deeper mixed airmass with the warmer temperatures
and larger dewpoint depressions storms are moving into. 80 knot flow
is observed around 2km on the HPX VWP and LCLs are above 2km in
eastern portions of watch 81 according to SPC mesoanalysis. Therefore,
some of this stronger flow may continue to mix to the surface with
these storms with the potential even for a significant (75+ mph) wind
gust. Eventually, instability should become too limited to support
continued robust convection and eventual decay is expected. However,
in the meantime, the threat for damaging winds will likely continue.
..Bentley.. 03/31/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...
LAT...LON 38848781 39368768 39538661 39368576 38838515 37968512
37428561 36978673 37008727 37148762 37468782 38848781
Read more
Thu, 31 Mar 2022 00:25:02 +0000
SPC Mar 31, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 0100Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM
CDT Wed Mar 30 2022
Valid 310100Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue through
tonight over portions of the central Gulf Coast states. The greatest
concerns are tornadoes (some strong, EF2+) and widespread damaging
wind gusts (some to hurricane force). A few severe storms may also
continue across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this evening.
...Synopsis...
Widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing across portions
of the Tennessee Valley into the Southeast in association with an
eastward progressing squall line with a history of producing damaging
winds and occasional tornadoes. A 60+ kt southerly 850 mb jet is
overspreading the Southeast into the Ohio Valley, where the exit
region of a 100+ kt westerly 300 mb jet streak is also approaching.
While instability remains modest ahead of the squall line, strong
deep-layer ascent and shear associated with the intense flow fields
aloft will compensate to support continued organized severe potential
with the squall line, including the potential for significant damaging
gusts/tornadoes.
...Southeast through 12Z Thursday...
A mature QLCS is poised to track across far southeast MS into central
and southern AL and the western half of the FL Panhandle this evening
into the rest of tonight. The Gulf Coastal area is beneath the
entrance region of the strong southerly low-level jet and exit region
of both the westerly 500 and 300 mb jet streaks, which are
contributing to long, curved hodographs and 400+ m2/s2 of 0-1km SRH.
Near 70F surface dewpoints are located along the Gulf Coast, and this
richer moisture is expected to advect northward towards central AL
through the night, contributing to modest buoyancy (i.e. up to 1000
J/kg MLCAPE). As such, damaging gust and tornado potential is expected
to continue across central and southern AL into the western FL
Panhandle through the night. There are still some indications by the
latest high-resolution guidance that portions of the QLCS may break
down into a semi-discrete, cellular mode. If this occurs, supercell
structures may develop and support a heightened threat of strong
tornadoes given the magnitude of low-level shear available.
...Tennessee and Ohio Valley through the evening...
The northern extent of a mature squall line/QLCS continues to track
across the OH Valley with a history of severe gusts and occasional
instances of transient, brief low-level circulations. While strong
forcing for ascent and shear are prevalent across the OH Valley,
buoyancy decreases dramatically with northeastern extent given the
presence of dry low-level air (i.e. 35-45F surface dew points).
Damaging gusts remain a concern this evening, but the severe threat is
expected to gradually diminish with time given the dry air and
nocturnal cooling.
..Squitieri.. 03/31/2022
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Thu, 31 Mar 2022 01:01:04 +0000
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