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LU9DCE > ALERT 03.04.22 08:05z 360 Lines 17362 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 02-ABR.22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<N9PMO<VE3UIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 220402/1830Z 5161@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Sat, 02 Apr 2022
08:54:01 +0000 Sat, 02 Apr 2022 08:54:01 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Sat Apr 2 08:54:01 UTC 2022 No
watches are valid as of Sat Apr 2 08:54:01 UTC 2022. Sat, 02
Apr 2022 08:53:05 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sat Apr 2 08:54:01 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Apr 2
08:54:01 UTC 2022. Sat, 02 Apr 2022 08:53:04 +0000
SPC Apr 2, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM
CDT Sat Apr 02 2022
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across
parts of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday. Damaging wind gusts and
hail should be the main hazards.
...FL Peninsula...
Early this morning a notable short-wave trough was observed over the
southern Plains. This feature is forecast to dig east-southeast across
the Gulf States and off the Southeast Atlantic Coast by 03/06. As the
southern influence of the short wave approaches the northern Gulf,
weak LLJ is expected to develop then strengthen and veer to
southwesterly before translating toward the FL Gulf Coast by 18z.
Latest model guidance suggests a considerable amount of convection
will evolve along this warm-advection corridor over the
northern/northeastern Gulf before spreading east. Boundary-layer
heating should contribute to modest buoyancy such that convection
should readily develop by late morning/mid day across the northern
Peninsula, especially given the weak low-level warm advection.
Numerous showers/thunderstorms may ultimately lead to a larger complex
that will spread east/southeast by late afternoon. Forecast soundings
exhibit surface-6km bulk shear on the order of 35-40kt ahead of this
activity, which should contribute to some organizational potential,
especially given ~2500 J/kg SBCAPE. While bulk shear will support
updraft organization, lowest 3km SRH is not particularly impressive,
and overall convective event may be a combination of clusters and
discrete updrafts. Somewhat greater low-level convergence will
naturally be noted along the East Coast in this regime and this could
focus convection, especially near/after peak heating. Earlier thoughts
regarding the prospect for wind/hail continue.
..Darrow/Moore.. 04/02/2022
Read more
Sat, 02 Apr 2022 05:45:00 +0000
SPC Apr 2, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM
CDT Sat Apr 02 2022
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of northwest
Texas and southwest Oklahoma Sunday evening. Strong wind gusts and
large hail will be possible with these storms. A couple of strong
storms also are possible across west Texas and the southern Florida
Peninsula.
...OK/TX...
Westerly low-amplitude flow across the western half of the CONUS will
amplify as a midlevel shortwave trough develops east/southeast to the
Upper MS Valley vicinity. A second midlevel trough will pivot eastward
across the southwestern states as well. A weak shortwave impulse will
eject eastward across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains
during the late afternoon/evening ahead of the western trough. This
lead impulse will provide increasing ascent across western TX into OK
by late afternoon/early evening. At the surface, a cold front is
forecast to shift east/southeast across the central Plains and into
northern OK during the afternoon/evening. This front will stall
across northwest OK as a weak surface low is forecast to develop over
eastern NM/western TX. A dryline also will exist from near the TX
Panhandle/western OK border into southwest TX around 00z.
Increasing southerly low-level flow will result in modest moisture
return to the east of the dryline/south of the cold front, with
dewpoints generally reaching into the mid 50s F to possibly near 60 F.
While boundary-layer moisture will be modest, steep midlevel lapse
rates and increasing midlevel moisture will support MLCAPE as high as
1500 J/kg. A weak capping inversion may preclude convective initiation
until after 00z when a 35-45 kt low level jet is expected to increase
and strong ascent arrives with the shortwave impulse. Once storms
develop, vertically veering wind profiles with 35+ kt effective bulk
shear magnitudes and elongated hodographs will support supercells
capable of large hail. Steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry
sub-cloud layer air also will support strong, locally damaging gusts.
The severe threat should diminish/become more conditional with
southward extent given weaker forcing and potentially stronger
capping. However, should convection develop southward along the
dryline across parts of west TX, sporadic strong gusts and hail could
accompany this activity for a few hours during the late
afternoon/early evening.
...South FL...
A midlevel trough will be oriented from the Mid-Atlantic vicinity to
the FL Peninsula Sunday morning. The trough will pivot east of FL by
afternoon. At the surface, a front will reside across central FL, just
north of Lake Okeechobee. South of the front, upper 60s/low 70s
dewpoints will reside beneath modest midlevel lapse rates and 500 mb
temperatures near -12 C. This will support MLCAPE values around
1500-2000 J/kg by peak heating. Large-scale ascent will remain weak
over the region, but low-level convergence should be sufficient to aid
in isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. Sporadic organized
cells could produce locally strong gusts and perhaps hail.
..Leitman.. 04/02/2022
Read more
Sat, 02 Apr 2022 05:46:43 +0000
SPC Apr 2, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM
CDT Sat Apr 02 2022
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY VICINITY...
...SUMMARY...
A broad area of severe thunderstorm potential will exist Monday across
central/eastern Texas, and spread east into the Lower Mississippi
Valley vicinity through Monday night. Damaging wind gusts, large hail
and tornadoes will all be possible.
...Synopsis...
A neutral to positively tilted upper trough will quickly eject east
from the southwest U.S. to the Ozarks/east Texas on Monday. A large
warm sector ahead of the trough will result in a broad area of severe
potential from central/eastern TX into the Lower MS Valley/central
Gulf Coast vicinity.
A surface low over northern IL will dissipate as it shifts east across
the Midwest, leaving a nearly stationary cold front extending from the
mid-MS Valley into central OK and western TX. As the western trough
shifts east, a weak surface low is forecast to develop over western TX
and track east in the vicinity of north TX or southern OK. Low-level
southerly flow will transport mid 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints
northward into central and eastern TX and low to mid 60s as far north
as the Red River Valley. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will support
moderate destabilization. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop in the vicinity of a dryline, and also in the warm advection
regime in the vicinity of the quasi-stationary cold front across
central/southern OK. Vertically veering wind profiles, with speeds
increasing quickly with height, will support initial supercells across
the warm sector from central into eastern TX. Large hail, damaging
gusts and a few tornadoes appear possible with this activity through
the afternoon/evening hours. As the low-level jet increases during the
evening, upscale development into an eastward-advancing MCS is
possible across the Sabine Valley vicinity.
During the evening and overnight hours, the southwesterly low-level
jet will increase and spread east across LA and the lower MS Valley
into western AL. A warm front extending from the ArkLaTex vicinity to
southern MS/AL during the evening will lift northward through the
overnight hours to roughly central MS/AL, and will demarcate the
northern extent of at least mid-60s surface dewpoints. Severe
thunderstorms will be possible with any MCS/QLCS that develops across
TX/LA and shifts eastward overnight, as well as with any semi-discrete
convection that may develop. Forecast hodographs across the region
will be quite large given the strength of low-level flow, and
instability will be more than sufficient to support a risk for
damaging gusts a few tornadoes.
..Leitman.. 04/02/2022
Read more
Sat, 02 Apr 2022 07:37:01 +0000
SPC Apr 2, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351
AM CDT Sat Apr 02 2022
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Tuesday - Central Gulf Coast States/Southeast...
An upper trough over the Ozarks/Sabine Valley will shift
east/northeast to the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. A broad area of strong
deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread much of the
southern/southeastern U.S. ahead of the trough. A surface low over
northern MS early Tuesday will develop northeast toward the central
Appalachians by evening. Strong warm advection will continue through
Tuesday night, and a front will become stationary along the southern
TN border. A complex of thunderstorms, some of which may be severe,
will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across the Lower MS Valley
vicinity. Rich boundary-layer moisture, and at least modest
destabilization is forecast downstream across MS/AL/GA and the FL
Panhandle. As the upper trough and a strong low-level jet spread
east/northeast, severe potential is expected to spread eastward across
the region through the afternoon and evening. Damaging gusts and
perhaps a few tornadoes are the most likely hazards with this
activity. Some low-end severe potential could develop across parts of
the Carolinas, but it is uncertain how far north stronger
destabilization will occur.
...Day 5/Wednesday - TN Valley into GA...
A warm advection regime will maintain rich boundary-layer moisture
across region ahead of a deepening upper level trough over the central
U.S. Increasing southwesterly mid/upper level flow will overspread the
Lower MS/TN Valley vicinity by afternoon along with stronger height
falls. At the surface, a strong cold front will sweep eastward across
the OH/TN and Lower MS Valleys during the afternoon/evening, becoming
positioned from the VA/NC Piedmont to the central FL Panhandle by
Thursday morning. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms appears
possible ahead of the cold front across parts of MS/AL, southeast TN
and western GA. Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes will be
possible with this activity.
...Day 6/Thursday - Eastern NC/southeast VA...
A large-scale upper trough will continue to deepen and spread eastward
on Thursday. A surface low is forecast to be in the vicinity of the
Chesapeake Bay with a cold front extending southward through the NC
Piedmont, southeast GA and the eastern FL Panhandle. Rich
boundary-layer moisture will reside east of the front amid strong
deep-layer southwesterly flow. Thunderstorms may be ongoing at the
beginning of the period, or develop by late morning, as modest
destabilization occurs ahead of the front. Severe thunderstorms appear
possible closer to the surface low and along the cold front through
the afternoon before the front shifts offshore by early evening.
Read more
Sat, 02 Apr 2022 08:53:57 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253
AM CDT Sat Apr 02 2022
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will remain limited to the southern High Plains
today. A progressive upper-level disturbance over the Southern Plains
in early-morning water vapor imagery continues to move to the
east/southeast, leaving clearing skies and surface high pressure in
its wake over the southern High Plains. This surface high will
gradually shift east by mid afternoon, and modest surface pressure
falls are expected along the lee of the Rockies under a weak zonal
flow regime aloft. This will support a gradual increase in
south/southwesterly pressure-gradient winds across eastern NM/west TX.
Sustained winds between 15-20 mph appear likely and may gust up to
20-30 mph at times. Poor moisture recovery into the region will
maintain depressed dewpoints and afternoon RH reductions into the
15-20% range. While parts of far eastern NM and the TX Panhandle
received wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours, most locations south
of I-40 remain dry and have receptive fuels that should support a fire
weather concern.
Localized elevated conditions may develop in the lee of the central
Rockies across WY and southern MT as downslope winds increase to 15-20
mph late in the afternoon. These conditions are expected to be
relatively brief and will occur over areas with only marginally dry
fuels.
..Moore.. 04/02/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Sat, 02 Apr 2022 05:54:27 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207
AM CDT Sat Apr 02 2022
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will increase across parts of the Great Plains
and southern High Plains Sunday afternoon as a surface low and
attendant lee trough migrate across the northern MO River Valley.
Localized fire concerns are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic
where dry conditions are likely within an offshore flow regime.
...Nebraska...
A compact upper-level trough, noted in early-morning water vapor
imagery moving onto the Pacific Northwest coast, is forecast to
quickly propagate eastward into the northern Plains through the day.
An attendant surface low will likely migrate from the lee of the
northern Rockies into the upper MO River Valley by Sunday evening with
a trailing surface trough to the south/southwest. The northwesterly
flow regime behind the trough will spread a continental air mass over
the Plains. While there is some spread in ensemble guidance regarding
afternoon highs and associated RH reductions, these flow regimes tend
to verify on the warmer side of ensemble temperature distributions due
to downslope warming/drying. As such, drier solutions that depict
widespread RH reductions into the 15-25% range appear more probable.
Such low RH, combined with sustained winds near 20 mph and
unseasonably high ERC values, will support critical fire weather
conditions across western to central NE. Elevated conditions appear
likely in adjacent Plains states, and may extend well into western KS
(though confidence in this potential is somewhat low).
...Southern High Plains...
While a more robust surface low is expected to the north across the
Plains, a weaker lee cyclone will likely begin to deepen across
eastern NM/west TX by the late afternoon hours. Ensemble guidance
shows reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph southwesterly winds
across southern/southeast NM in response to the deepening low. Dry
trajectories from northern Mexico, combined with downslope
warming/drying, should support areas of elevated fire weather
conditions in the lee of terrain features. Elevated conditions may be
more widespread and extend into western TX, but this will be
conditional on the placement and strength of the surface low.
...Mid-Atlantic...
Dry conditions with northwesterly offshore flow are expected along the
East Coast in the wake of a cold frontal passage Sunday afternoon.
Although winds will generally be weak (5-10 mph with localized gusts
to 15 mph), RH values will likely fall below 25%, especially in the
lee of the Blue Ridge mountains. 10-hour fuels across NC and VA remain
dry and ERC estimates are well above the 90th percentile, which may
support at least a localized fire weather concern.
..Moore.. 04/02/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Sat, 02 Apr 2022 07:09:27 +0000
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