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LU9DCE > ALERT 03.04.22 22:37z 376 Lines 18212 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5205_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 03-ABR.22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 220403/1931Z 5205@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Sun, 03 Apr 2022
08:40:03 +0000 Sun, 03 Apr 2022 08:40:03 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Sun Apr 3 08:40:03 UTC 2022 No
watches are valid as of Sun Apr 3 08:40:03 UTC 2022. Sun, 03
Apr 2022 08:39:05 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sun Apr 3 08:40:03 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Apr 3
08:40:03 UTC 2022. Sun, 03 Apr 2022 08:39:04 +0000
SPC Apr 3, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM
CDT Sun Apr 03 2022
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of southwest
Oklahoma into western Texas this afternoon and evening. Severe wind
gusts and large hail will be possible with these storms. A couple of
strong storms are also possible across the southern Florida Peninsula.
...Synopsis...
Early-morning water vapor imagery reveals a prominent upper-level
shortwave trough transversing the Great Lakes region, with a pair of
weaker disturbances noted over the northern Rockies and approaching
the southern CA coast. A weak surface low over the upper OH River
Valley will migrate into the Northeast through the day while a lee
cyclone over the northern High Plains will shift into the Plains by
this evening. A lee trough/dryline will mix eastward into the Plains
through the afternoon in tandem with the northern High Plains low.
The combination of the falling surface pressure across the western
Plains and a modest lee cyclone over the southern High Plains will
strengthen southeasterly flow off the TX Gulf coast, spreading 50-55 F
dewpoints into west TX and southwestern OK by late afternoon.
...Southwest Oklahoma into southwest Texas...
Thunderstorm development appears likely in the vicinity of a weak
surface low and along the surface trough/dryline, from southeast
NM/west TX into western OK around peak heating. The observed Saturday
evening Midland, TX RAOB reveals a dry boundary layer with around 7
C/km lapse rates aloft, which should be maintained through the day as
weak broad scale ascent ahead of the CA wave steepens lapse rates.
Initial storms are forecast to develop in a steep-lapse-rate
environment, which may support a few dry microbursts across southwest
TX. Loosely organized convection will move east by late
afternoon/early evening into richer boundary-layer moisture as flow
aloft strengthens. Consequently, the risk for large hail will
accompany the more intense updrafts. Into the overnight hours, waning
instability will diminish the severe potential.
...Southern Florida...
A diffuse cold front will gradually sag south across central to
southern FL this afternoon. Despite early morning showers and cloud
cover, mid-level dry air on the backside of the departing upper-level
wave should allow for partially clearing skies by early to mid
afternoon. Boundary-layer moisture and daytime heating between broken
cloud cover should be sufficient to support 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE.
Upper-level winds will gradually weaken through the day, but should
remain strong enough to support effective bulk shear values between
30-40 knots, which may support storm organization. Storm coverage may
be limited due to weak forcing for ascent, but a few robust storms are
possible and may pose a hail/wind risk.
..Moore/Smith.. 04/03/2022
Read more
Sun, 03 Apr 2022 05:25:02 +0000
SPC Apr 3, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM
CDT Sun Apr 03 2022
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN OK
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
A broad area of severe-thunderstorm potential will exist Monday across
central/eastern Texas, eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley
vicinity through Monday night. Damaging wind gusts, large hail and
tornadoes will all be possible.
...OK/TX/ArkLaTex...
A somewhat broad, and neutral to positive-tilt upper trough over the
southwestern U.S. will develop eastward to the Ozarks/Sabine Valley
vicinity by Tuesday morning. As this occurs, increasing midlevel
southwesterly flow will overspread parts of central/eastern TX into
the Lower MS Valley. Additionally, a south/southwesterly low-level jet
will increase to around 40-50 kt during the evening and overnight
across eastern TX into the lower MS Valley. The evolution of surface
pattern appears somewhat messy and uncertain. A stalled front will
reside from northwest TX into central OK and the Mid-MS Valley early
in the period. Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing along this
boundary Monday morning across OK and far north TX. This activity
should spread eastward or dissipate through the morning, but steep
midlevel lapse rates could allow for some marginal hail.
Southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward
through the day, with 60s surface dewpoints as far north as the Red
River/far southern OK possible by afternoon. Mid to upper 60s
dewpoints may make it as far north as I-20. Coupled with steep
midlevel lapse rates, moderate destabilization is expected despite
somewhat modest diurnal heating. An EML/capping around 850-700 mb will
likely limit thunderstorm activity for much of the day across TX. By
early evening, a weak low is forecast to develop over northwest TX and
a cold front will shift east across OK/north TX to the ArkLaTex
overnight. Initial supercells are possible in the vicinity of the
surface low and southward along the cold front/dryline composite.
While storms maintain discrete mode, large hail and damaging gusts
will be possible across north/central TX. However, it is unclear how
long discrete cells may be maintained. An increasing low-level jet and
deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary suggests upscale
development into a QLCS is likely. Nevertheless, favorable low-level
shear will exist and support mesovortex formation within any line that
develops. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes appear possible across
parts of north/east TX into the ArkLaTex during the evening/nighttime
hours.
...Lower MS Valley Vicinity...
The midlevel trough will shift east toward the Ozarks late in the
period. A strong southwesterly low-level jet around 50 kt will
overspread the region after 06z, and effective bulk shear magnitudes
will increase to 40+ kt. Strong warm advection will lead to increasing
low-level destabilization/moistening as a warm front lifts northward
across LA into central MS/southwest AL late in the period. South of
the warm front, dew points in the mid 60s to near 70 F are expected.
Should storms develop or move into this environment ahead of the
eastward-advancing QLCS of the ArkLaTex, a greater tornado threat
could develop during the last 3-6 hours of the forecast period.
..Leitman.. 04/03/2022
Read more
Sun, 03 Apr 2022 05:59:59 +0000
SPC Apr 3, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM
CDT Sun Apr 03 2022
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SC...
...SUMMARY...
A broad area of strong to severe thunderstorm potential will exist
across portions of the southern and southeastern U.S. on Tuesday,
especially from the central Gulf Coast into central/southern Georgia
and southern South Carolina. Strong wind gusts and a few tornadoes
will be possible.
...Deep South into the Carolinas...
A somewhat broad, low-amplitude midlevel trough will shift
east/northeast from the lower MS Valley vicinity to the Mid-Atlantic
on Tuesday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with this
system will persist across the southern/southeastern states, with a
large warm sector expected over the region. Thunderstorms are likely
to be ongoing at the beginning of the period across portions of the
Lower MS Valley. This, in conjunction with somewhat nebulous surface
features and possibly widespread cloudiness/precipitation, is
resulting in quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast. However, at
least modest destabilization is expected downstream of morning
thunderstorm activity and ahead of the midlevel trough from the
central Gulf Coast into parts of GA/SC. Morning convection will shift
into this area as a southwesterly low-level jet increases through the
afternoon/evening. Strong vertical shear will support rotating storms,
though storm mode may be messy, with a mix of clusters and line
segments. Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes appear possible as
convection shifts east/northeast during the day and into the evening.
The northward extent of the severe threat across the Carolinas remains
uncertain, as precipitation may outpace boundary-layer
destabilization.
...Southeast OK/Northeast TX...
A conditional severe threat could develop late in the period across
southeast OK/northeast TX as another midlevel trough develops
east/southeast across the Plains. Forecast guidance varies
considerably regarding convective development ahead of a
southeastward-surging cold front. Persistent southerly flow will
maintain a moist airmass over the region, but an EML base around 850
mb will be present. Some guidance suggests isolated, elevated storms
could develop, posing a threat for large hail. Uncertainty remains too
high to include probabilities at this time, but may become necessary
in future outlooks if potential becomes more certain.
..Leitman.. 04/03/2022
Read more
Sun, 03 Apr 2022 07:28:07 +0000
SPC Apr 3, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337
AM CDT Sun Apr 03 2022
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Wednesday - Central Gulf Coast to the Central
Appalachians...
A strong mid/upper low will be located over the Upper Midwest early
Wednesday. The low and its attendant trough will develop
east/southeast across the MS Valley by Thursday morning. Intense
southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the region as a surface
cold front surges eastward across the Ohio Valley and into the Deep
South by Wednesday evening. The cold front is expected to continue
east overnight, becoming positioned from the VA/NC Piedmont to the
central Gulf of Mexico by Thursday morning. A moist and unstable
airmass will reside ahead of the front. Strong ascent amid
boundary-parallel deep-layer flow should support linear convection
with an attendant damaging-wind and tornado threat. The northward
extent of severe potential is a bit uncertain at this time, and severe
probabilities may need to shift northward some in future outlooks
depending on forecast trends in the coming days.
...Day 5/Thursday - Eastern Carolinas/Chesapeake Bay Vicinity...
Linear convection will be ongoing Thursday morning ahead of the
eastward-progressing surface cold front. A surface low is forecast
over central NC during the morning, and should lift northeast as the
mid/upper trough continues to dig and pivot eastward across the
central/eastern U.S. Southerly low-level flow will transport rich
boundary-layer moisture northward into at least southern portions of
the Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Modest destabilization and a strong
deep-layer wind field should maintain severe/damaging wind potential,
as the morning line of convection shifts eastward across the region
into the afternoon/early evening.
Read more
Sun, 03 Apr 2022 08:39:59 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131
AM CDT Sun Apr 03 2022
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected from the central Plains to the
southern High Plains this afternoon. Early-morning surface
observations show a surface low deepening in the lee of the northern
Rockies as a compact upper-level wave ejects into the Plains. This low
is forecast to migrate across the upper MO River Valley today with a
trailing surface trough/dryline draped southward across NE, KS, and
into western OK. Fire weather concerns will increase behind this
surface boundary, as well as across parts of the southern High Plains
where dry thunderstorms are probable.
...Central Plains...
Northwesterly winds behind the surface trough/dryline are forecast to
increase to 15-25 mph from southeast WY into southern SD, NE, and
northwest KS. This downslope wind regime typically supports RH
reductions more in line with warmer/drier solutions, which show
widespread critical fire weather conditions from far southeast WY into
central NE. These solutions are supported by a handful of
early-morning obs from southeast WY, which are reporting dewpoint
values lower than depicted by most guidance. Critical conditions
appear likely, and unseasonably high ERC values will support the fire
weather threat.
...Southern High Plains...
Weak zonal flow and gradual height falls aloft will support weak lee
cyclogenesis this afternoon across east NM and west TX. Southwesterly
winds are forecast to increase to 10-20 mph in response to the surface
pressure falls. Trajectories emanating from northern Mexico will
maintain depressed dewpoints across the region with afternoon RH
values in the teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected and
will be most pronounced in the immediate lee of terrain features.
...Mid-Atlantic...
A dry, post-frontal air mass is expected to overspread the
Mid-Atlantic in the wake of a weak cold frontal passage early this
morning. The northwesterly offshore flow will support downslope
warming/drying in the lee of the Blue Ridge mountains. RH reductions
into the 20-35% range are possible and may coincide with sustained
winds near 15%. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are
possible, but recent rainfall should limit the overall fire weather
potential.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
The observed 00Z sounding from MAF reveals a dry boundary layer under
steep lapse rates. The combination of gradual cooling aloft with a
modest influx of low-level moisture will support 100-500 J/kg MUCAPE
atop a dry, well-mixed boundary layer by late afternoon. The
inverted-V soundings, coupled with PWAT values between 0.5-0.6 inches,
will support the potential for dry lightning strikes as well as severe
downburst winds with any thunderstorm that develops along the diffuse
dryline this afternoon. See the latest Day 1 convective outlook for
more details regarding the severe potential.
..Moore.. 04/03/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Sun, 03 Apr 2022 06:33:26 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201
AM CDT Sun Apr 03 2022
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected again Monday afternoon across the
central to northern Plains, as well as across parts of southwest TX.
A strong zonal jet is forecast to nose into the Pacific Northwest late
Sunday into early Monday. This will support strong troughing in the
lee of the Canadian Rockies, which in turn will support increasing
southerly winds through the Plains. To the south, westerly winds in
the vicinity of a weak surface low will foster areas of elevated fire
weather conditions over a region with very dry fuels.
...Central to Northern Plains...
Latest ensemble guidance shows reasonably high confidence in sustained
15-20 mph winds from NE into the western Dakotas as the surface low
deepens through the day. Moisture return into the region will be
limited, and combined with diurnal heating, will support RH reductions
into the 20-25% range. Drier solutions hint that critical wind/RH
conditions are possible from eastern WY into far western NE Monday
afternoon, but low ensemble probabilities minimize confidence in this
potential. Fuels across much of the High Plains remain dry with
unseasonably high ERC values, and will support a fire weather concern
for locations that do not see wetting precipitation over the next 24
hours. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions may develop across
southern and central WY as well, but latest fuel guidance suggests
fuels are not receptive across these areas.
...Southwest Texas...
The weak surface low that is forecast to develop this afternoon across
the southern High Plains is expected to meander south towards the Rio
Grande by Monday afternoon - driven primarily by broad ascent
associated with an upper-wave moving into northern Mexico. This will
support increasing westerly downslope winds from far southwest TX and
southeast NM into the Trans Pecos region and the Big Bend region.
Sustained winds between 15-20 mph coincident with RH values in the
teens appear likely. Currently dry fuels will remain receptive to fire
spread and will support elevated fire weather concerns.
..Moore.. 04/03/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Sun, 03 Apr 2022 07:03:27 +0000
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