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LU9DCE > ALERT 04.04.22 22:00z 395 Lines 18931 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 04-ABR.22
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Sent: 220404/1830Z 5240@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Mon, 04 Apr 2022
08:37:02 +0000 Mon, 04 Apr 2022 08:37:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Apr 4 08:37:02 UTC 2022 No
watches are valid as of Mon Apr 4 08:37:02 UTC 2022. Mon, 04
Apr 2022 08:36:06 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Mon Apr 4 08:37:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Apr 4
08:37:02 UTC 2022. Mon, 04 Apr 2022 08:36:05 +0000
SPC Apr 4, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 AM
CDT Mon Apr 04 2022
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
A broad area of severe-thunderstorm potential will exist today across
central/eastern Texas, eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley
vicinity through tonight. Damaging wind gusts, large to very large
hail, and tornadoes will all be possible.
...Synopsis...
A broad upper-level trough, noted late Sunday night in water-vapor
imagery over southern California, will continue to migrate east across
the Southern Plains later today. Modest height falls aloft will
support weak cyclogenesis across northwest to north TX by mid to late
afternoon along a stalled front. Richer boundary-layer moisture via
60-65 F dewpoints (currently noted along the TX Gulf coast) will
continue to advect northward through the day. Storms are expected to
develop in the afternoon and grow upscale as they move into the lower
MS River Valley overnight.
...Central to Northwest TX...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop around peak heating in the
vicinity of the surface low and front. Elongated hodographs above 3 km
and off-boundary storm motions should support a few initially discrete
cells. The degree of low-level cloud cover (implied by latest
guidance) and lingering inhibition by late afternoon casts some
uncertainty into storm coverage - especially south of the surface low
along the front and into south TX - but the combination of 8-9 C/km
lapse rates and strong flow aloft will support the potential for
significant hail with more isolated supercells. Continued lift in the
vicinity of the low will foster gradual upscale growth with a
corresponding increase in damaging gusts as the low shifts into
northeast TX.
...Arklatex region to the lower MS River Valley...
The surface low is forecast to gradually deepen as it shifts east
towards the Arklatex region in tandem with the upper wave. In
response, southerly 850 mb flow will increase, fostering increased
low-level ascent that will aid in organizing an MCS across the
Arklatex region into the lower MS River Valley. Scattered damaging
winds are probable with more intense bowing segments, and enlarged
low-level hodographs may support a few QLCS tornadoes overnight.
...South Florida...
Winds will gradually turn more southerly through the day as a diffuse
warm front lifts north through the state. This will allow widespread
65-75 F dewpoints to overspread south FL and support 1500-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE by mid afternoon. Little to no inhibition will allow
thunderstorm development along sea-breeze boundaries. Despite meager
hodograph structure, effective bulk shear values near 30 knots may
support a few robust storms that could pose a hail/wind risk.
..Moore/Smith.. 04/04/2022
Read more
Mon, 04 Apr 2022 05:04:59 +0000
SPC Apr 4, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM
CDT Mon Apr 04 2022
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR
EASTERN LA INTO SOUTHERN MS/AL...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA AND SOUTHERN
SC...
...SUMMARY...
A broad area of severe-thunderstorm potential will exist across
portions of the southern and southeastern U.S. on Tuesday, especially
from the central Gulf Coast vicinity into central/southern Georgia and
southern South Carolina. A swath of damaging wind gusts and several
tornadoes are possible.
...Synopsis...
A midlevel shortwave trough is forecast over the Ozarks to Sabine
Valley Tuesday morning, and will shift east across the Mid-South to
the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the period. Strong deep-layer
southwesterly flow will overspread the south/southeastern U.S. ahead
of the trough, with a 50+ kt 850 mb low-level jet oriented from
southern MS into southern/central AL and GA/SC. Surface features will
be somewhat nebulous, with a lack of strong cyclogenesis. However,
low-level southerlies will maintain strong warm advection and
mid/upper 60s dewpoints will spread north across the Deep South into
GA and eastern NC. This will aid in moderate destabilization ahead of
an eastward-advancing QLCS expected to be oriented roughly from
western MS into central LA. Given abundant boundary-layer moisture,
moderate instability, and strong shear, a broad area of severe
potential will exist across much of the south/southeast U.S. through
Tuesday evening. The greatest threat will exist across the Enhanced
risk (level 3 of 5) area from eastern LA/southern MS into southern AL,
central/southern GA and southern SC.
...LA/MS...
There is quite a bit of discrepancy regarding where the ongoing storm
cluster or QLCS will be located Tuesday morning. Given this
uncertainty, the western fringes of the outlook area may need adjusted
in subsequent outlooks. Nevertheless, a roughly north-south oriented
line of storms should track across southern MS and portions of
central/eastern LA during the morning. Strong wind fields and a
storm-motion vector orthogonal to the QLCS will support a
damaging-wind threat, as well as a mesovortex tornado threat. Some
guidance suggests that some airmass recovery could occur during the
afternoon in the wake of morning convection, and another round of
strong to severe thunderstorms could occur. This remains highly
uncertain, but will need to be monitored.
...AL/GA/SC...
Midlevel flow will rapidly increase during the late morning/early
afternoon as the 50+ kt low-level jet overspreads the region. The QLCS
is expected to be maintained and shift east across the region during
the afternoon into early evening. Similar to LA/MS during the morning,
enlarged low-level hodographs will support mesovortex and/or embedded
supercell tornadoes within the line, in addition to a swatch of
damaging gusts. Less certain is how much, if any, discrete convection
develops ahead of the eastward-advancing QLCS. If discrete supercells
develop, there is some potential for strong tornadoes given strong
low-level shear amid rich boundary-layer moisture. Uncertainty
regarding the development of discrete convection will preclude sig tor
probs at this time, but may be needed in later outlooks across
portions of at least AL/GA.
...Portions of Eastern Coastal FL...
Stronger large-scale ascent will remain focused to the north of the
area. Nevertheless, low 70s surface dewpoints and strong heating will
support strong destabilization through peak heating. Effective shear
magnitudes around 30-35 kt will support organized cells along the sea
breeze boundary during the afternoon. Locally strong gusts and
marginal hail will be possible with these storms. Low-level winds will
be somewhat weak, but small, favorably curved hodographs are forecast.
A tornado or two could occur with any storm located immediately along
the sea breeze boundary where low-level shear will be maximized.
...Southeast KS/Northeast OK/Southwest MO...
An upper low over the northern Plains will pivot east to the Upper
Midwest late in the period. The associated broad trough will dig into
the central/southern Plains as this occurs. A surface cold front is
forecast across northern MO into southeast KS and north-central OK
Tuesday evening, and will quickly sweep southeast through Wednesday
morning. Some guidance suggests elevated convection may develop near
the front. If this occurs, modest midlevel lapse rates, strong
vertical shear and at least weak instability could support marginally
severe hail. Given uncertainty in this scenario, will hold off on
introducing severe probabilities at this time.
..Leitman.. 04/04/2022
Read more
Mon, 04 Apr 2022 05:51:45 +0000
SPC Apr 4, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM
CDT Mon Apr 04 2022
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN AL...NORTHERN GA...UPSTATE SC...FAR WESTERN NC AND
SOUTHEAST TN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing swaths of damaging gusts and
tornadoes are expected across a broad area from the Deep South into
the southern Appalachians on Wednesday. The greatest risk area will
encompass portions of central/northern Alabama into southeast
Tennessee, far western North Carolina/South Carolina and northern
Georgia.
...Deep South to the Southern Appalachians...
A closed upper low and its attendant trough will deep and shift east
from the Plains to the Upper Great Lakes/MS Valley on Wednesday. This
will maintain deep-layer southwesterly flow across the Gulf Coast
states into the Mid-Atlantic, resulting in a broad warm-advection
regime ahead of the trough. A strong low-level jet around 40-50 kt
will be somewhat more focused across parts of MS/AL into the Carolinas
ahead of a strong surface cold front. This surface front is forecast
to extend roughly from southeast MO into east-central TX Wednesday
morning, while a warm front extends from the southern TN border into
Upstate SC. The warm front should lift north into NC and possibly
southern VA late in the period while the cold front sweeps eastward
across the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast.
A seasonally moist boundary layer will exist ahead of the surging cold
front, with surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s across much of the
southern/southeastern U.S. This will aid in moderate destabilization
of a strongly sheared environment. Deep-layer flow largely parallel to
the surface cold front will support linear convection, with another
QLCS sweeping east across the southern U.S. likely. A swath of
damaging gusts will accompany organized convection through the daytime
across parts of MS/AL/TN/GA and into the southern Appalachians, the
Carolinas and southern GA/northern FL during the evening/overnight.
While damaging gusts appear the most likely hazard at this time,
tornado potential will exist as well, both within the
QLCS/mesovortices and in any semi-discrete convection should it
develop ahead of the line.
..Leitman.. 04/04/2022
Read more
Mon, 04 Apr 2022 07:28:02 +0000
SPC Apr 4, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334
AM CDT Mon Apr 04 2022
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Thursday - Eastern Carolinas to the Chesapeake Bay
Vicinity...
An upper low and attendant trough will pivot eastward across the
central/southern U.S. on Day 4/Thu. Strong southwesterly flow will
persist ahead of this feature along much of the Eastern Seaboard,
while a surface cold front surges eastward across the Southeast and
Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the
vicinity of the front and a developing surface low over the eastern
Carolinas Thursday morning. The northward extent of higher-quality
boundary-layer moisture is somewhat uncertain, but the best chance for
severe storms appears to be from parts of eastern SC/NC into the
Chesapeake Bay vicinity. At least modest destabilization is expected
amid moderate vertical shear, and an eastward continuation of the QLCS
from the Day 3/Wed period is expected to bring damaging gusts to the
region.
...Days 5-8/Friday-Monday...
A break in severe-weather potential is expected on Days 5-6/Fri-Sat as
surface high pressure develops across much of the central U.S. and a
cold front surges well south into the Gulf of Mexico.
By Day 7/Sun, an upper ridge will shift east from the Plains into the
eastern U.S. as a broad upper trough develops over the western U.S.
through Day 8/Mon. Lee cyclogenesis is expected both Day 7/Sun and Day
8/Mon, resulting in increasing southerly low-level flow across the
southern Plains. This will allow Gulf moisture to return northward
across TX/OK during this time. Depending on the evolution of the
western trough, this could result in increasing severe potential
across the southern Plains by Day 8/Mon or just after.
Read more
Mon, 04 Apr 2022 08:36:58 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113
AM CDT Mon Apr 04 2022
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN WYOMING INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will persist across parts of the High Plains
today as a strong upper-level jet begins to nose into the Pacific
Northwest. Critical fire weather conditions are most likely across
parts of eastern WY and western NE, but elevated conditions are
probable for parts of the western Dakotas, MT, and far southwest TX.
...Northern High Plains...
The latest observations from northern MT and AB/SK show surface
pressure falls indicating a deepening lee trough as an upper-level jet
begins to shift into the Pacific Northwest. This trend will continue
through the day and the resulting mass response will support
widespread winds between 15-25 mph along the northern High Plains. An
antecedent dry air mass (dewpoints in the single digits to low teens)
will maintain reduced RH values this afternoon via diurnal warming and
some degree of downslope warming/drying. Latest ensemble guidance has
maintained reasonably high probabilities for critical wind/RH
conditions across eastern WY into the NE Panhandle. Locations in the
immediate lee of terrain features may see periods of extremely
critical wind/RH conditions with sustained winds near 30 mph, gusting
to 35-45 mph at times.
...Southwest Texas...
Early-morning surface observations from the Trans Pecos region and
southeast NM show westerly winds on the west side of a diffuse cold
front/surface trough. This boundary will migrate east through the day
as a weak surface low consolidates in northwest TX. Westerly downslope
winds will increase to 15-20 mph across the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande
River Valley to the Big Bend region. Upstream dewpoints in the single
digits and low teens will advect into the region and support RH
reductions into the teens. Consequently, elevated fire weather
conditions appear probable along the Rio Grande to the Big Bend region
where fuels remain very dry and are receptive to fire spread.
...South-Central Appalachians...
Dry conditions are expected to persist across the south-central
Appalachians with RH values falling into the 25-35% range by the late
afternoon. Breezy gradient winds between 10-15 mph may support brief
periods of elevated fire weather conditions. Given the dry fuels over
the region, this may support a low-end fire weather concern.
..Moore.. 04/04/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Mon, 04 Apr 2022 06:14:32 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238
AM CDT Mon Apr 04 2022
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will become more widespread across the High
Plains on Tuesday, as an upper-level trough begins to deepen over the
central CONUS and a cold front sweeps to the southeast across the
Plains. Strong downslope flow off the central and southern Rockies, in
the wake of the cold front and behind a deepening surface low, will
support widespread critical conditions along the High Plains.
...Central High Plains...
Latest forecast guidance continues to show good agreement in the
passage of a surface trough/cold front across the Plains early
Tuesday. Post-frontal winds will likely increase to 15-25 mph in a
dry, deeply mixed air mass. Downslope warming off the central Rockies
will support widespread RH reductions well below 25% across the
central Plains. Drier solutions hint that RH values may fall to near
15% by late afternoon for parts of eastern WY and western NE.
Forecast soundings suggest boundary-layer mixing may extend up to
700-600 mb, which could allow for wind gusts as high as 40-50 mph by
mid afternoon. Widespread critical conditions appear likely over a
region with dry fuels. A corridor of sustained 30 mph winds speeds may
develop across the WY/CO/NE tri-state region. While confidence in
widespread sub-20% within this corridor is somewhat low (due to the
potential for lingering clouds after isolated morning showers),
periods of extremely critical conditions appear possible.
...Southern High Plains...
A secondary surface low is forecast to deepen across the southern TX
Panhandle into northwest TX through the day Tuesday. Behind this low
and an attendant surface trough, westerly winds will likely increase
to 20-25 mph across a broad swath from southwest TX into eastern NM
and the TX Panhandle. Downslope warming coupled with antecedent dry
conditions will support widespread RH reductions between 10-15% (and
possibly as low as the single digits). A deep, well-mixed boundary
layer with a unidirectional wind profile favors frequent gusts up to
30-40 mph. Widespread critical conditions are expected, and periods of
extremely critical wind/RH conditions are possible from east-central
NM into the southwestern TX Panhandle, where guidance shows the most
favorable overlap of the low-level thermal ridge and mid-level speed
maxima.
..Moore.. 04/04/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Mon, 04 Apr 2022 07:39:27 +0000
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