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LU9DCE > ALERT 06.04.22 02:00z 502 Lines 22389 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 05-ABR.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Tue, 05 Apr 2022
09:33:02 +0000 Tue, 05 Apr 2022 09:33:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC Tornado Watch 94 WW 94 TORNADO AR LA MS CW 050815Z - 051600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 94 NWS
Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Far Southeast Arkansas Southern and Eastern Louisiana Central and
Southern Mississippi Coastal Waters
* Effective this Tuesday morning from 315 AM until 1100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with
isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A line of storms will move southeastward across the region
through the early morning hours, with the possibility of additional
and somewhat more isolated storms near/south of a warm front.
Strengthening low-level winds and increasing moisture will support the
potential for damaging winds and tornadoes aside from isolated large
hail, especially near/north of the warm front.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 125 statute miles
north and south of a line from 30 miles northwest of Alexandria LA to
25 miles south southeast of Pine Belt MS. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 93...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface
and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion
vector 24030.
...Guyer
Read more
Tue, 05 Apr 2022 08:16:02 +0000
SPC Tornado Watch 94 Status Reports WW 0094 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 91
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S CDS TO 35 W
SPS TO 30 NNW FSI.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0398
..MOORE..04/04/22
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 91
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC019-067-085-050040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER JEFFERSON LOVE
TXC009-023-049-059-077-083-093-097-133-143-193-207-221-237-253-
333-337-363-367-399-417-429-441-447-485-497-503-050040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR BROWN CALLAHAN
CLAY COLEMAN COMANCHE COOKE
EASTLAND ERATH HAMILTON HASKELL HOOD
JACK JONES MILLS MONTAGUE
PALO PINTO PARKER RUNNELS SHACKELFORD
STEPHENS TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WICHITA
WISE YOUNG
Read more
Tue, 05 Apr 2022 08:16:04 +0000
SPC Tornado Watch 93 Status Reports WW 0093 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 93
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S TYR TO 15 S
TYR TO 25 NE TYR TO 30 N GGG TO 30 SSW TXK TO 10 S TXK TO 25 NNE TXK.
..EDWARDS..04/05/22
ATTN...WFO...SHV...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 93
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC027-073-091-050840-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIA LAFAYETTE MILLER
LAC013-015-017-027-031-081-119-050840-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE DE
SOTO RED RIVER WEBSTER
TXC067-073-183-203-315-347-365-401-419-423-459-050840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS CHEROKEE GREGG
Read more
Tue, 05 Apr 2022 07:05:03 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Tue Apr 5 09:33:03 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Apr 5
09:33:03 UTC 2022. Tue, 05 Apr 2022 09:32:05 +0000
SPC Apr 5, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM
CDT Tue Apr 05 2022
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN GULF COAST STATES INTO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST...
...SUMMARY...
A broad swath of severe-thunderstorm potential will exist across
portions of the southern and southeastern U.S. today, especially from
the central Gulf Coast states to the Carolinas. A swath of damaging
wind gusts and several tornadoes are possible, including the risk of a
strong tornado.
...Synopsis...
Late evening regional radar mosaics show a thunderstorm complex over
north TX that is gradually organizing into an MCS, in advance of a
southern stream shortwave trough. These feature will continue to move
east into the lower MS River Valley this morning and eventually into
the Gulf Coast states and southeast Atlantic coast by this evening. To
the northwest, a strong upper-level jet continues to nose into the
northern Rockies. As this feature digs into the Plains, a lee cyclone
will shift into upper MS River Valley while a secondary low deepens
over the southern Plains. The broad surface pressure falls across the
Plains will allow for a convectively modified air mass over the
southern Plains with 50-55 F dewpoints to shift north ahead of an
approaching cold front.
...Gulf Coast to the southeast Atlantic Coast...
Latest surface observations show gradual northward advection of higher
theta-e air along the central Gulf Coast ahead of the approaching
upper-level disturbance and the attendant MCS. This increase in
low-level buoyancy combined with increasing kinematic fields through
the day will result in an increasingly organized squall line as the
MCS moves east across the lower Gulf Coast states today. Limited
inhibition and persistent lift via low-level warm advection may result
in a few discrete cells ahead of the line, and latest CAM guidance
hints this is most likely to occur across the lower MS River Valley
during the mid-morning hours along the northward-moving surface warm
front. These cells may take on supercellular characteristics and pose
a tornado and hail threat before merging with the main line.
As the mid-level disturbance deepens through the day, mid-level wind
fields will respond with increasing southwesterly flow (up to 50-60
knots at 850 mb). Down shear propagation vectors hint at a forward
storm motion up to 50 knots, which will support the potential for
widespread damaging winds. Concurrently, the strengthening low to
mid-level flow will enlarge hodographs in the lowest 3 km and support
effective SRH values on the order of 300-400 m2/s2 across the same
southern AL to southern GA corridor. QLCS tornadoes appear probable
within the dominant linear mode, but are also possible with any
quasi-discrete supercells that develop ahead of line main line. The
severe wind/tornado threat will persist as storms continue towards the
southeast Atlantic coast by late evening.
...Northeast OK to the Mid-Mississippi River Valley...
Thunderstorm development appears likely from northeast OK into mid-MS
river valley late this afternoon. While MLCAPE values will be modest
(500-1000 J/kg), strong deep-layer flow approaching the region will
support sufficient effective bulk shear to support a few strong to
severe storms. Modest, but sufficient, 0-1 km SRH will support a
low-end tornado threat with any initially discrete cells.
..Moore/Smith.. 04/05/2022
Read more
Tue, 05 Apr 2022 05:22:02 +0000
SPC Apr 5, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM
CDT Tue Apr 05 2022
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL AL...SOUTHEAST TN...WESTERN NC...NORTHERN SC AND
NORTHERN GA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing swaths of damaging gusts and
a few tornadoes are expected across a broad area from the Deep South
into the southern Appalachians on Wednesday.
...Synopsis...
A strong mid/upper low over will meander over the Upper Midwest while
its attendant trough pivots eastward from the Plains to the MS Valley
vicinity. Another weak midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move
across the north-central Gulf of Mexico and northern FL/southern GA
vicinity. A surface low over the Upper Midwest will drift eastward
over the upper Great Lakes while an attendant strong cold front sweeps
east across the OH/TN Valleys and central Gulf Coast vicinity. A broad
area of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow and rich boundary-layer
moisture will be in place, or advance northward, ahead of the cold
front across much of the Deep South to the southern Appalachians. This
will help support a large area of severe thunderstorm potential,
mainly Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
...Southeast/Southern Appalachians...
A moist airmass (mid-upper 60s F surface dewpoints) will persist even
in the wake of a line of severe thunderstorms expected in the Day
1/Tuesday period. Moderate deep-layer south/southwesterly low-level
flow will also help transport moisture northward into the southern
Appalachians. Some forecast uncertainty exists due to the
aforementioned midlevel shortwave impulse tracking across the southern
AL/GA/northern FL, in conjunction with a potential west-east oriented
outflow boundary left across the area from storms in the Day 1/Tuesday
period. Most guidance suggests these features could focus convective
development by afternoon across parts of the FL Panhandle/northern FL
into southern/central GA. If this occurs, storms will develop within a
moderately unstable airmass and 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes.
This would support organized severe storms capable of damaging gusts
and a few tornadoes. Given uncertainty in convective coverage and
potential impacts from Day 1 convection, will maintain Slight risk
probs across the FL Panhandle/northern FL into southern GA, though
there is some potential that higher probs may be needed in later
outlooks.
Uncertainty will continue with northward extent into AL/northern GA
and the southern Appalachians. If a large area of thunderstorms
develops further south, this may impact northward moisture transport
and destabilization ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front during
the late afternoon into overnight period. Nevertheless, most guidance
still develops scattered convection along the cold front amid weak to
moderate instability and strong vertical shear. Swaths of damaging
gusts and a couple tornadoes will be possible with frontal convection
from parts of AL into northern GA and the southern Appalachians.
..Leitman.. 04/05/2022
Read more
Tue, 05 Apr 2022 05:47:43 +0000
SPC Apr 5, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM
CDT Tue Apr 05 2022
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday
across eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia, as well as
across portions of the Florida Peninsula. Damaging gusts and hail will
be the main hazard with these storms.
...Portions of eastern NC/southeast VA and the FL Peninsula...
A closed upper low will be positioned over the upper Great Lakes early
Thursday, while its attendant large-scale upper trough will extend
along the MS Valley. This system is forecast to slowly shift east
across the central U.S. during the period, with strong mid/upper
southwesterly flow enveloping much of the eastern states. A surface
is forecast in the vicinity of the NC/VA Piedmont Thursday morning,
with a cold front extending southward from the low into central GA,
the central FL Panhandle and the central Gulf of Mexico at the
beginning of the period. The front should move offshore the Atlantic
coast and into central FL and the eastern Gulf by evening. Rich
boundary-layer moisture beneath a strongly-sheared environment will
support at least isolated strong to severe storms from eastern NC into
southeast VA, as well as much of the FL Peninsula ahead of the cold
front.
Steepening midlevel lapse rates and surface dewpoints in the mid/upper
60s F will support moderate destabilization, while effective bulk
shear greater than 35 kt will result in organized convection. Forecast
hodographs become elongated above about 2 km, but are somewhat small
in low-levels as 0-1 km winds remain somewhat weak. This environment
should support isolated severe thunderstorms mainly capable of
damaging gusts and perhaps hail ahead of the cold front, with the
greatest chance for severe storms existing across eastern NC into
southeast VA. More isolated strong to severe convection is possible
across the FL Peninsula.
..Leitman.. 04/05/2022
Read more
Tue, 05 Apr 2022 07:16:59 +0000
SPC Apr 5, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350
AM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Days 4-5/Fri-Sat...
A large-scale mid/upper trough will shift east across the central and
eastern U.S. Fri/Sat. In the wake of this system, an upper ridge will
develop east across the Plains as another large-scale upper trough
develops over the western U.S. Surface high pressure and continental
trajectories will result in a stable airmass across much of the CONUS
east of the Rockies during the time and severe thunderstorm potential
will be low.
...Days 6-8/Sun-Tue -- Central/Southern Plains Vicinity...
A large-scale upper trough is expected to intensify over the western
U.S. on Days 6-7/Sun-Mon and slowly pivot eastward toward the Rockies
and Plains by around Day 8/Tue. This will result in lee troughing/low
development over the central/southern High Plains early next week. In
response, increasing southerly low-level flow will transport rich Gulf
moisture northward across the southern Plains by Day 7/Mon and as far
north/east as the lower MO/Mid-MS Valley by Day 8/Tue.
While modest low-level moist return is expected on Day 6/Sun east of a
dryline extending southward across western OK into central TX, capping
and weak forcing will preclude thunderstorm development. By Day 7/Mon,
a sharper dryline is expected over portions of central KS/western
OK/central TX, while increasing southwesterly mid/upper level flow
overspreads the region. Strong heating and somewhat cool temperatures
aloft should allow for moderate destabilization amid strong vertical
shear, and at least isolated convection is expected to shift east off
the dryline during the afternoon/evening, resulting in severe storm
potential from southeast KS into central/eastern OK and north TX.
Severe potential may develop across portions of the same area and a
bit east/northeast toward the lower MO Valley on Day 8/Tue as the
western large-scale trough ejects eastward, resulting in stronger
height falls and deepening surface cyclogenesis amid a
thermodynamically-favorable environment. However, uncertainty in the
timing of the ejecting upper trough, and location/track of the
developing surface low will preclude severe probabilities at this
time, though probs may become necessary in subsequent outlooks for
parts of the central/south-central U.S.
Read more
Tue, 05 Apr 2022 08:52:56 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120
AM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather threats are expected to increase this afternoon along
much of the High Plains. A strong upper-level jet is noted in
early-morning water vapor imagery and latest RAP analyses across the
Pacific Northwest. This features will dig slightly into the central
Plains through the day and help shift a strong surface low, noted in
the lee of the northern Rockies, into the upper MS river valley by
late afternoon. An attendant cold front will sweep southeast across
the Plains this morning with a continental air mass in its wake,
resulting in widespread dry, windy conditions.
...Central High Plains...
Latest surface observations from eastern WY already show strong
downslope 25-30 mph winds on the west side of the lee trough. These
conditions are yielding poor overnight RH recovery with RH values
holding steady in the 30-35% range. As the cold front pushes east this
morning, downslope winds will become more widespread across the
central Plains. Latest guidance continues to show high probability for
widespread sustained 20-30 mph winds from the Dakotas into northern
KS. Deep boundary-layer mixing up to 700-600 mb and a unidirectional
wind profile will support the potential for 40-50 mph wind gusts -
especially over the NE/CO/WY tri-state region where the strongest low
to mid-level flow is expected. Despite the deep mixing, cold advection
and scattered cloud cover (and potentially light showers) may limit
overall RH reductions. RH values may drop into the 15-20% range under
persistent cloud breaks, but 20-25% RH values appear more probable.
Given very receptive fuels over the region, widespread critical, and
localized extremely critical, conditions are expected.
...Southern High Plains...
A secondary surface low is expected to deepen over western
OK/northwest TX through the afternoon. 20-25 mph westerly winds behind
the low and attendant dryline will have trajectories emanating from
the southern Rockies. Downslope warming and drying will support
widespread critical conditions as RH values fall into the low teens.
Extremely critical conditions are possible across far eastern NM and
the southwestern TX Panhandle where the overlap of the low-level
thermal ridge and 850-700 mb wind maxima will be maximized. However,
poor ensemble probabilities for sustained 30+ mph winds suggests such
conditions will be localized and brief. Portions of northwest TX
within the Critical risk area have received well over 0.5 inches of
rain over the past 24 hours, which has likely mitigated fuel
receptiveness to a degree. However, the critical wind/RH conditions
will support fire spread outside of the narrow swaths that received
higher amounts.
...Northern Montana...
Widespread 20-30 mph winds (gusting to 50+ mph at times) are expected
behind the cold front by early afternoon. Due to cold air advection
and lingering cloud cover, RH reductions are expected to be meager,
falling to 25-35%. Despite this, very dry fuels combined with strong
winds will support critical fire weather concerns this afternoon.
..Moore.. 04/05/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Tue, 05 Apr 2022 06:21:27 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209
AM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
The upper-level wave currently moving into the northern Rockies is
forecast to amplify over the central Plains and upper MS River Valley
over the next 48 hours as an attendant surface low occludes over MN. A
tight pressure gradient across the Plains will maintain strong
northwesterly low to mid-level flow from west TX into the Dakotas
Wednesday afternoon. These strong winds, combined with dry conditions,
will support another day of widespread fire weather concerns for parts
of the High Plains.
...Central to southern High Plains...
Ensemble guidance continues to show high probability for 20-30 mph
sustained wind across much of the high Plains. Cold advection and
mid-level clouds will mute diurnal RH reductions for most locations
north of northeast CO and northern KS. Further south, limited cloud
cover and a stronger downslope wind component off the central Rockies
will yield RH reductions into the 15-25% range. Deep mixing up to 700
mb should allow for frequent wind gusts up to 35-45 mph by late
afternoon, which may support periods of extremely critical fire
weather conditions from far southeast CO into the OK/TX Panhandles
where RH values may fall to near 10%. Given antecedent dry fuel status
across much of the region, elevated to critical fire weather
conditions appear likely.
...New Mexico...
Regional pressure gradient winds will gradually increase through the
day as a surface high builds across the northern Great Basin.
Sustained 15-25 mph winds will likely see frequent gusts up to 25-30
mph by late afternoon amid deep diurnal mixing. Fuels across northwest
NM are only modestly receptive, but given the increasing winds and RH
reductions into the single digits to low teens, at least elevated fire
weather concerns are expected. A Critical risk area may be needed in
subsequent outlooks depending on how fuel status trends over the next
48 hours.
..Moore.. 04/05/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Tue, 05 Apr 2022 07:10:26 +0000
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