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LU9DCE > ALERT 07.04.22 02:00z 366 Lines 17517 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 06-ABR.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Wed, 06 Apr 2022
08:55:02 +0000 Wed, 06 Apr 2022 08:55:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Wed Apr 6 08:55:02 UTC 2022 No
watches are valid as of Wed Apr 6 08:55:02 UTC 2022. Wed, 06
Apr 2022 08:54:06 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Wed Apr 6 08:55:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Apr 6
08:55:02 UTC 2022. Wed, 06 Apr 2022 08:54:05 +0000
SPC Apr 6, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM
CDT Wed Apr 06 2022
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S....
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing swaths of damaging gusts,
severe hail, and several tornadoes are expected across a broad area
from parts of the southern Appalachians into the southeastern U.S.
this afternoon.
...Synopsis...
A robust upper-level wave is noted in early-morning water vapor
imagery over the northern CONUS. At the surface, an attendant surface
low is beginning to occlude over the upper MS river valley. A
progressive cold front arcing from the Midwest into the southern
Plains will continue to sweep east/southeast over the next 24 hours.
Ahead of this front, a diffuse warm front will advance north into the
Great Lakes region by the late afternoon, establishing a broad warm
sector from the Gulf Coast into the OH river valley.
...Middle TN into the OH River Valley...
Ongoing thunderstorms along the cold front in the mid-MS valley will
move into the middle TN/OH river valley through the day. Low-level
moisture will gradually increase as the warm front mixes north.
Dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s are expected as far north as
northern KY ahead of the front and will support MLCAPE values near
1000 J/kg. The upper-level jet streak overhead will support strong
50-60 knot effective bulk shear, and storm motions vectors near to
just off the cold front may support a mix of supercells and bowing
segments. Elongated hodographs in the 0-3 km layer will support a
tornado threat with any discrete cells.
...Southern Appalachians into the Southeast...
The cold front is expected to move across the lower MS valley through
the morning hours. Morning inhibition and weaker forcing for ascent
may limit storm coverage until the front reaches MS/AL around early
afternoon when diurnal heating/mixing can overcoming lingering
capping. Deep-layer shear will be more marginal compared to locations
farther north, but 30-40 knot in the 1-2 km layer will still support a
damaging wind threat with storms along the front. To the east across
southeast AL and southern GA, guidance suggests an outflow boundary
lingering from last night's MCS will lift through the region.
Thunderstorms will likely develop along this boundary by late morning
as inhibition erodes via insolation between cloud breaks and low-level
warm advection. Forecast hodographs show mid to upper-level flow
weakness, but low-level curvature will support 150-250 m2/s2 effective
SRH across the region. This will support a tornado threat, especially
during the early afternoon when isolated to scattered quasi-discrete
supercells are most probable prior to gradual clustering. While CAM
guidance shows the highest probabilities for convection across
southeast AL into southern GA, the exact location of convective
initiation remains somewhat uncertain.
..Moore/Smith.. 04/06/2022
Read more
Wed, 06 Apr 2022 05:19:01 +0000
SPC Apr 6, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM
CDT Wed Apr 06 2022
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NC
AND SOUTHEAST VA...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday
across eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia, as well as
across portions of the Florida Peninsula. Damaging gusts and hail will
be the main hazard with these storms.
...Synopsis...
An deep upper low and attendant trough will shift east across the
central and eastern U.S. on Thursday. Ahead of this system, a swatch
of 40-50 kt 700 mb southwesterly flow will overspread much of the FL
Peninsula into the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a weak low will exist
across the NC/VA Piedmont Thursday morning. A cold front will extend
southward from the low into central GA and the central Gulf of Mexico.
Rich boundary-layer moisture will be in place ahead of the front and
isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the FL
Peninsula into eastern NC/southeast VA vicinity.
...NC/VA...
Strong storms may be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of central
NC int he vicinity of the surface low and cold front. Damaging gusts
will be the main concern with this initial activity. Heating ahead of
the front and surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s amid modest
midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization,
and widely scattered storms should develop by late morning/early
afternoon. Deep-layer flow will largely remain parallel to the surface
front, with small low-level hodograph evident in forecast soundings.
However, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow, increasing with height
will result in effective shear magnitudes around 35-45 kt, and
organized cells are expected. Strong instability and steep midlevel
lapse rates (6.5-7.0 C/km) will overlap with modestly elongated
hodographs above about 1 km and isolated large hail is possible in
addition to damaging gusts.
A surface warm front will lift northward across far southeast VA and
then offshore into the Atlantic. To the north of this boundary, strong
storms are still possible, but will likely remain elevated. Still,
marginally severe hail will be possible with this activity.
...FL Peninsula...
A cold front will move into northern FL by early afternoon and advance
southeast across the Peninsula through the forecast period. Mid 60s
to near 70 F dewpoints will be present ahead of the front beneath
steep midlevel lapse rates. This will result in strong destabilization
amid 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes. Deep layer flow will remain
parallel to the boundary, limiting low-level convergence, but degree
of destabilization should allow for widely scattered thunderstorms.
Damaging gusts and hail will be possible with this activity.
Large-scale ascent will decrease with time and southward extent and
the severe threat should decrease during the evening and toward the
southern FL Peninsula.
..Leitman.. 04/06/2022
Read more
Wed, 06 Apr 2022 05:30:45 +0000
SPC Apr 6, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM
CDT Wed Apr 06 2022
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.
...Synopsis...
The large-scale upper trough over the eastern U.S. will persist on
Friday, only shifting east very slowly. Further west, an upper ridge
over the western U.S. will shift east toward the Plains as a shortwave
upper-level trough develops southward into the Pacific Northwest. At
the surface, a cold front will extend south/southwest over the
Atlantic into south FL. This front should move offshore south FL/the
Keys by early afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible, but weak ascent and limited instability amid weakening
effective shear will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. Other
isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of New England in
a warm advection regime. This activity will remain elevated and pose
little severe risk.
..Leitman.. 04/06/2022
Read more
Wed, 06 Apr 2022 06:46:03 +0000
SPC Apr 6, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352
AM CDT Wed Apr 06 2022
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Days 4-5/Sat-Sun...
Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low on Day 4/Sat. An upper
trough will pivot eastward across the eastern U.S. toward the Atlantic
Coast by Sunday morning. An upper ridge over the Plains will shift
east as the western upper trough continues to dig southward across the
region. Mainly dry and stable conditions will envelop much of the
CONUS during this time. By Day 5/Sun, the western upper trough will
continue to amplify, and a lee surface low/trough will develop over
the central/southern High Plains in response. This will promote
increasing southerly low-level flow across the southern Plains,
transporting Gulf moisture northward. Deeper boundary-layer moisture
will remain across south/central TX through Sunday night and capping
will likely preclude thunderstorm development.
...Day 6-8/Mon-Wed -- Southern Plains to the Ozarks vicinity...
By Day 6/Mon, the western upper trough will persist. A swath of
increasing southwesterly mid/upper-level flow is forecast to spread
east into the Plains as a subtle shortwave impulse ejects across the
southern Rockies into the Plains. Higher-quality boundary-layer
moisture will spread north into north TX, central/eastern OK and
southeast KS to the east of a dryline. Strong heating along the
dryline and increasing moisture should result in moderate
destabilization amid a weakening cap. Isolated supercells are expected
during the afternoon/evening across north TX into southeast KS.
On Day 7/Tue, the western trough should begin to advance eastward,
though there is still some differences among guidance in the timing of
this eastward shift. Nevertheless, most guidance (ensemble, machine
learning, and deterministic) indicate a similar scenario to Day 6/Mon
evolving a bit further east across eastern OK/northeast TX into parts
of the Ozarks. Southerly low-level flow will continue to transport
Gulf moisture northward across the south-central U.S. into the Lower
MO Valley amid a favorable deep-layer kinematic regime for organized
severe storms.
By Day 8/Wed, forecast guidance indicates the western trough will
eject eastward into the Plains. Meanwhile a surface low and cold front
are forecast to sweep eastward across the central/southern Plains
toward the MS Valley. The large-scale pattern will generally support
severe storms somewhere from the Plains toward the Mid/Lower MS
Valley. However, guidance varies quite a bit in the timing and
location of surface features, resulting in uncertainty in the exact
location of greater severe potential. Severe probabilities may be
needed in later outlooks, but uncertainty is too great to introduce an
area at this time for Day 8/Wed.
Read more
Wed, 06 Apr 2022 08:54:56 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123
AM CDT Wed Apr 06 2022
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO
INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
A strong upper-level trough is apparent in early morning water vapor
imagery over the central CONUS. At the surface, a low is beginning to
occlude over MN with an attendant cold front arcing southwestward into
north TX. This low will largely remain in place today with the
associated surface trough/cold front shifting east through the
morning. To the west, surface high pressure will continue to build
amid broad upper-level ridging. Consequently, pressure gradient winds
will remain elevated overnight and increase through the day as
boundary-layer mixing increases. This will support Critical to Extreme
fire weather conditions for parts of the southern High Plains where
active wildfires have been noted over the past 24 hours.
...Southern High Plains...
Early morning surface observations show a dry, continental air mass
moving from the northern/central Plains (where dewpoints are in the
single digits) into the southern High Plains. The strong low-level
flow is maintaining boundary-layer mixing near the surface and poor
overnight RH recovery from southeast WY into the OK/TX Panhandles.
This air mass will undergo further drying today as winds increase in
response to the tightening pressure gradient and downslope flow off
the CO Rockies increases. Afternoon RH values are expected to fall
into the 15-20% range from eastern CO into central OK and northern TX.
Ensemble guidance continues to show high probability for widespread
critical fire weather conditions across this region with 20-30 mph
sustained winds. Extremely critical conditions remain likely across
the OK/TX Panhandles where deep mixing will allow for single-digit RH
and wind gusts up to 40-50 mph. ERCs across this region remain
elevated near the 90th percentile, and these conditions will likely
impact recent fires across the OK Panhandle. Similar wind speeds are
probable further north into eastern CO and western KS, but confidence
in extremely critical RH is lower.
...Southern Texas...
Dry, post-frontal air will sweep across southern TX through the
morning hours. Mostly clear skies will allow for strong diurnal
warming and boundary-layer mixing, which should allow RH values into
fall into the 20-25% range. Frequent wind gusts up to 20-25 mph will
support periods of critical fire weather conditions, but widespread
elevated conditions appear more probable. Despite patchy rainfall over
the past two days, fuels across the majority of the region remain very
receptive and will support a fire weather concern across most of
southern TX.
...New Mexico...
Northwesterly pressure-gradient winds are expected to increase to
15-25 mph this afternoon from the Four Corners region into southern
NM. A dry air mass currently over parts of the Great Basin (where
dewpoints are in the low teens) will shift into the Four Corners/NM
region by late afternoon. Downslope affects will support additional
drying with RH values in the low teens to single digits likely.
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected, but modest
fuel status (ERCs between the 50-70th percentile) will preclude a
greater concern.
..Moore.. 04/06/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Wed, 06 Apr 2022 06:24:26 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210
AM CDT Wed Apr 06 2022
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO NORTHERN
TEXAS...
...Synopsis...
The surface low currently over MN will meander east/southeast towards
the Great Lakes over the next 48 hours. To the west, a surface high
will build into the inter-mountain West, maintaining a tight pressure
gradient across the Plains. Another day of strong northwesterly winds
is expected with widespread sustained 20-30 mph sustained winds from
the Dakotas into central Texas. While increasing cloud cover for much
of the plains will mute diurnal RH reductions, clear skies and
downslope flow will resulting in another day of widespread fire
weather concerns for the southern High Plains.
...Southern High Plains to central Texas...
Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance suggests that much of the
southern High Plains will remain under mostly clear skies through the
day Thursday. This will maximize diurnal heating and support deep
mixing. Low-level trajectories emanating from the central Rockies will
lead to additional warming/drying, resulting in RH values between
15-20% from southeast CO into northern TX. Probabilities for 20-25
mph winds across this region remain high, and drier/windier solutions
suggest sustained winds near 30-35 mph are possible. Single digit RH
may not be as widespread as compared to Wednesday, but brief periods
of extremely critical wind/RH may develop across the TX Panhandle into
northwest TX. Outside of the Critical risk area, windy conditions are
expected with widespread 20-30% RH from the CO/WY/NE tri-state region
to the TX Gulf Coast. Confidence in the fire weather potential
decreases with northern and eastern extent due to uncertainties in
cloud cover. Clearing skies by early afternoon may result in lower RH
than currently forecast, and may warrant an expansion of the risk
areas given the strong winds.
..Moore.. 04/06/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Wed, 06 Apr 2022 07:11:27 +0000
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