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LU9DCE > ALERT 12.04.19 07:04z 144 Lines 8096 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 21270_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 12 04
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190412/0701Z 21270@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248
AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2019
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging wind gusts and hail are possible
across parts of the central Appalachian Mountains this afternoon.
Large hail and a few damaging wind gusts will also be possible early
Saturday morning across parts of west-central and north-central
Texas.
...Central Appalachian Mountains... An upper-level low will move
across the upper Mississippi Valley today as southwest mid-level
flow remains in place across the eastern states. At the surface,
a low will move into the western Great Lakes region as a surface
trough moves into the central Appalachians. Surface dewpoints to
the east of the surface trough should be in the lower to mid 60s
F. In response, surface heating will result in some destabilization
along and to the east of the trough. Model forecasts develop an
axis of instability from the western Carolinas northward into West
Virginia where MLCAPE values are forecast to reach the 500 to 1000
J/kg range by afternoon. This combined with strong deep-layer shear
may be enough for a marginal severe threat. Convection that initiates
in areas that heat up the most may have a potential for strong wind
gusts and hail mainly during the late afternoon and early evening.
...Southern Plains/Arklatex... An upper-level trough will
dig east-southeastward into northern Mexico today as a strong
mid-level jet rounds the base of the trough. The exit region of
the mid-level jet is forecast to move out into the southern Plains
tonight. At the surface, a low is forecast to develop in far west
Texas as moisture advection takes place eastward across the much
of central and west Texas. In response, a corridor of moderate
instability is forecast to develop after midnight from west-central
into north-central Texas. RAP forecast soundings by late tonight
increase MUCAPE values in the 1200 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition,
convection is forecast to initiate across west-central Texas during
the overnight period as large-scale ascent increases near the exit
region of the mid-level jet. The mid-level jet will create moderate
effective shear profiles of 40 to 50 kt. This along with 700-500
mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km should be favorable for supercells
with large hail. The greatest threat for large hail should exist
just to the north of the strongest instability from between Midland
and San Angelo east-northeastward to west of the Dallas/Fort Worth
metroplex. A few damaging wind gusts could occur in the vicinity of
San Angelo where a conditional chance for surface-based convective
development will be possible. The time period with the greatest
severe threat would be from 06Z to 12Z early Saturday morning.
The hail threat may extend as far east as the Arklatex.
..Broyles/Bentley.. 04/12/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman
OK 0126 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2019
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR
EAST TEXAS ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO
WEST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
AMENDED FOR WORDING ADJUSTMENT
...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across
portions of east Texas, Louisiana, southern Arkansas, Mississippi
and surrounding areas Saturday and Saturday night.
...Synopsis... As an upper low/trough shifts northeastward across
the Great Lakes into eastern Canada, an evolving trough pivoting
around the western and southern fringe of this system will shift out
of the southern Rockies and across southern Plains Saturday/Saturday
night.
In response to this system, a surface low -- initially expected to
reside in the vicinity of the Texas Hill Country -- will strengthen
as it shifts northeastward. By the end of the period Sunday morning,
the low should reside in the vicinity of the confluence of the
Ohio and Mississippi Rivers. Trailing from this low, a cold front
will sweep across east Texas to near the Sabine River by sunset,
and then continue eastward across the lower Mississippi River into
Mississippi and eventually western Alabama. Widespread thunderstorms
-- including potential for a substantial severe weather event --
are expected.
...east Texas eastward to southwest Tennessee/Mississippi/western
Alabama... A potentially significant severe weather episode is
expected to evolve across portions of the south central U.S. --
focused from the Arklatex to the lower Mississippi Valley area,
as a seasonably strong southern-stream storm system advances across
the region.
With a moist low-level airmass within an evolving warm sector
undergoing ample daytime heating, mixed-layer CAPE in the 1000 to
2000 J/kg range is expected to evolve by early to mid afternoon.
Increasing ascent associated with the eastward advance of the upper
system should result in an increase in convection by early afternoon.
CAM guidance varies from model to model, but general consensus
appears reasonable -- in that a band of storms will develop near
the front, with some linear/upscale growth with time, while more
cellular convection evolves ahead of the band.
At this time, the banded convection appears likely to evolve
across east Texas, with the more cellular storms affecting
northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas by mid afternoon, and
then spreading across the Mississippi Delta region into western
Mississippi by mid to late afternoon. Given the very strong wind
field accompanying this system, with flow veering/increasing with
height from southeasterly to south-southwesterly, and reaching 60 to
70 kt at mid levels, well-organized rotating updrafts will likely
evolve within several cells. Along with locally damaging winds
and hail, strong tornadoes may also occur, within a few of the most
intense storms. Convection will continue spreading eastward through
the evening and into the overnight hours. While the pre-frontal,
cellular convection should diminish overnight, a semi-organized
band of storms -- with embedded rotating updrafts and continued
severe/tornado potential -- will cross the central Gulf Coast states
through the end of the period.
...North Carolina/southeast Virginia and vicinity... Models
forecast that the eastern fringe of a warm front associated with
the developing south-central U.S. storm system will lie across the
Carolinas/Virginia vicinity during the day. With some heating of a
moist low-level airmass yielding around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE
during the afternoon, scattered/diurnally driven thunderstorms are
expected. While not excessive, shear -- aided by 35 kt mid-level
west-southwesterlies -- will be sufficient for storm organization,
and thus risk that a couple of storms reach severe levels. Hail and
gusty/locally damaging winds would be the primary severe risk,
before storms weaken into the evening hours.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 15% SIG - Moderate Wind:
45% - Enhanced Hail: 30% - Enhanced
..Goss.. 04/12/2019
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