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LU9DCE > ALERT 09.04.22 19:00z 423 Lines 20861 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5417_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 09-ABR.22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<VE3KPG<VA3TOK<LU9DCE
Sent: 220409/1830Z 5417@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Sat, 09 Apr 2022
09:04:01 +0000 Sat, 09 Apr 2022 09:04:01 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Sat Apr 9 09:04:01 UTC 2022 No
watches are valid as of Sat Apr 9 09:04:01 UTC 2022. Sat, 09
Apr 2022 09:03:05 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sat Apr 9 09:04:01 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Apr 9
09:04:01 UTC 2022. Sat, 09 Apr 2022 09:03:04 +0000
SPC Apr 9, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM
CDT Fri Apr 08 2022
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The severe thunderstorm threat is expected to remain low today.
...Synopsis...
A deep upper trough over the eastern CONUS is forecast to move
eastward today, as an upstream trough begins to amplify over portions
of the central/northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains by early
Sunday morning. A surface low will move across portions of New England
during the day, while a stronger cyclone deepens over the central High
Plains in response to the amplifying upper trough. Moisture will
remain quite limited across the CONUS, resulting in generally sparse
coverage of thunderstorms and low severe potential.
...New England...
Despite limited low-level moisture (dewpoints generally in the upper
30s to low 40s F), steep lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft will
support the potential for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
as the surface low and attendant cold front move eastward across the
region. Small hail and locally gusty winds may accompany the stronger
convective elements, but the severe threat is expected to remain low
due to very limited buoyancy.
...Central Rockies/High Plains...
Weak convection may develop across portions of the central Rockies and
adjacent High Plains this afternoon/evening, as the upper-level trough
amplifies across the region. Inverted-V profiles will support the
potential for locally strong/gusty winds across the lower elevations,
but convection is expected to remain too weak and disorganized for an
appreciable severe risk.
..Dean/Lyons.. 04/09/2022
Read more
Sat, 09 Apr 2022 04:59:59 +0000
SPC Apr 9, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM
CDT Sat Apr 09 2022
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Sunday
evening/night from parts of northeastern Oklahoma into Missouri.
Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats.
...Synopsis...
A large-scale upper trough/low will remain centered over western
Canada and the northwestern CONUS on Sunday. An embedded shortwave
trough is forecast to move northeastward across the northern Plains
through the day, eventually reaching the Upper Midwest Sunday night.
At the surface, a low initially centered over KS should develop slowly
northeastward across MO through Sunday evening, while a dryline
extending southward from this low sharpens over parts of the
central/southern Plains. A cold front should eventually impinge on
modest low-level moisture returning northward across the southern
Plains/Ozarks Sunday night.
...Southern Plains into Missouri...
A pronounced EML emanating from the Southwest will be present over
much of the southern/central Plains on Sunday, and a low/mid-level
temperature inversion will likely inhibit convection across the
developing warm sector through the day. The presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates and gradually increasing low-level moisture east
of the dryline will act in conjunction with diurnal heating to support
around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by early Sunday evening from parts of
north-central/northeastern OK into MO.
Most guidance suggests that isolated thunderstorms will initiate
across this region along/ahead of the cold front Sunday evening/night,
as glancing ascent from the shortwave trough over the northern Plains
and a gradually strengthening low-level jet help overcome lingering
convective inhibition. Some of these thunderstorms may remain slightly
elevated based on NAM forecast soundings. Regardless, the steep lapse
rates aloft coupled with 30-40+ kt of deep-layer shear should foster
organized updrafts, with a supercell or two possible before storms
quickly grow upscale into one or more small bowing clusters. Isolated
large hail may occur with the initially discrete thunderstorms.
Damaging winds also appear possible if any of the clusters can remain
surface-based Sunday night.
Given the limited low-level moisture forecast and late timing of
convective development, have maintained low severe probabilities for
mainly hail/wind across parts of northeastern OK into MO where
convection appears most likely to develop. Farther south across the
southern Plains along the length of the dryline, convective initiation
appears much more uncertain/conditional owing to a lack of ascent
aloft and stronger cap.
..Gleason.. 04/09/2022
Read more
Sat, 09 Apr 2022 05:05:44 +0000
SPC Apr 9, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM
CDT Sat Apr 09 2022
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible Monday from
parts of north-central Texas to southern Missouri and vicinity. Large
to very large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes may
occur.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will dig southward over the western states on Monday
while gradually amplifying. A belt of enhanced west-southwesterly
mid-level flow should persist over much of the central Plains into the
Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, with somewhat weaker flow aloft present
with southward extent across the southern Plains. A cold front should
be draped across the mid MS Valley southwestward to a weak surface low
over OK/north TX Monday morning. A dryline should extend southward
from this low across the southern Plains.
...Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valleys...
Increasing low-level moisture characterized by low to mid 60s surface
dewpoints is forecast to continue streaming northward across
central/east TX to the east of the dryline through the day, and into
the ArkLaTex/Mid-South ahead of the cold front. Steep mid-level lapse
rates are expected to remain present over much of the warm sector,
which should contribute to the development of moderate to locally
strong instability across these regions by Monday afternoon.
The stronger mid-level flow over the northern/central CONUS may tend
to remain displaced slightly to the north of much of the warm sector.
Even so, there should be a belt of enhanced mid-level winds extending
from OK/TX to the Mid-South/lower OH Valley. Deep-layer shear should
gradually increase in magnitude with northward extent, with values
generally ranging from 30-45 kt. The strongest effective bulk shear
values will probably overlie the surface front across MO/AR into the
lower OH Valley by peak afternoon heating. This shear will likely act
to organize updrafts in any thunderstorms that can initiate along the
front and/or dryline.
The primary uncertainty regarding the severe threat on Monday is the
overall coverage of convection. Large-scale ascent aloft will remain
nebulous at best, with multiple weak mid-level disturbances possibly
moving northeastward over the warm sector through the period. The
strong EML should hinder convective initiation along the dryline
through much of the day, with the cold front perhaps providing a
better focus for low-level convergence. Still, most guidance attempts
to generate at least isolated thunderstorms along the dryline from
eastern OK/western AR into north-central/east TX late Monday
afternoon/early evening.
If convection forms, a mix of multicells and supercells appear
possible. Given the steep mid-level lapse rates and large buoyancy
that should be available, any discrete thunderstorms may be capable of
producing very large hail in addition to damaging winds. Low-level
flow should remain fairly muted through much of the day before
gradually strengthening Monday evening/night. If thunderstorms can
remain semi-discrete, then perhaps a couple of tornadoes could occur
as low-level shear increases in this time frame. A more
isolated/marginal severe threat may persist with eastward extent
across the ArkLaTex/Mid-South into the lower OH Valley Monday night,
with weaker instability present across these areas.
..Gleason.. 04/09/2022
Read more
Sat, 09 Apr 2022 07:17:10 +0000
SPC Apr 9, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400
AM CDT Sat Apr 09 2022
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A substantial, multi-day severe thunderstorm event will continue on
Day 4/Tuesday and Day 5/Wednesday across much of the central CONUS.
Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes should occur.
...Day 4/Tuesday: Southern/Central Plains into the Mid Mississippi
Valley/Midwest... Medium-range guidance is coming into somewhat
better agreement regarding the eastward progression of an upper trough
across the western/central CONUS on Day 4/Tuesday. A deep surface
cyclone is forecast to eject eastward across the central Plains
through the day, reaching the vicinity of the Upper Midwest Tuesday
night. Low-level moisture will advect rapidly northward ahead of the
surface low and east of a dryline across parts of the southern/central
Plains into the mid MS Valley. Rather steep mid-level lapse rates are
expected to be present over much of the warm sector, which should aid
in the development of moderate to strong instability east of the
dryline by Tuesday afternoon.
As mid-level height falls and related ascent preceding the upper
trough overspread the southern/central Plains, convection will likely
initiate along the dryline from eastern KS to central TX. Even with
deep-layer shear forecast to remain fairly modest through the day, the
large reservoir of buoyancy will likely support robust severe
thunderstorms. Large to very large hail should occur with initially
discrete convection, and damaging winds will be a concern as
convection grows upscale Tuesday night. Greater tornado potential may
focus across the central Plains into parts of the Midwest/mid MS
Valley, where better low-level shear should be present owing to a
strengthening low-level jet. A 30% severe area has been included where
confidence is greatest in supercells occurring Tuesday
afternoon/evening.
...Day 5/Wednesday: Southern/Central Plains into the Mississippi
Valley/Midwest and Southeast... Convection still posing some severe
threat may be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of the lower MS
Valley and Mid-South in a strong low-level warm advection regime. As
the large-scale upper trough ejects eastward over the central CONUS,
low-level moisture should continue to stream northward across the
lower/mid MS Valley into parts of the Midwest. There are some
differences in model guidance regarding the evolution of this upper
trough on Day 5/Wednesday. Still, it appears likely that scattered to
numerous severe thunderstorms will develop across the broad warm
sector and to the east of a cold front/dryline through much of the
day. Strong deep-layer shear should combine with adequate instability
to support updraft organization.
All severe hazards appear possible with this convection, and any
supercells will pose a threat for tornadoes in addition to large hail
and damaging winds. Even with lingering uncertainty regarding the
possible effect of early-day convection and some model differences in
the placement of the upper trough and related surface features, enough
confidence exists to include a 30% severe area for parts of the
ArkLaTex into the lower MS Valley and Mid-South. This region appears
to have the best chance for substantial destabilization Wednesday
afternoon and discrete supercells. An isolated severe threat will
probably persist into Wednesday evening/night across parts of the
Midwest into the lower OH Valley and Southeast. Even though low-level
moisture and instability should gradually decrease with eastward
extent across these regions, both low-level and deep-layer shear will
likely remain strong. This may support a continued severe threat
through much of the overnight hours.
...Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday...
Predictability of the synoptic-scale upper pattern across the CONUS
quickly diminishes from Day 6/Thursday onward. Depending of the
evolution of the previously discussed upper trough, and upstream
developments over the western CONUS, it appears possible that some
severe threat could linger across parts of the south-central and
southeastern states through early next weekend. However, confidence is
far too low to include any 15% severe areas at this time.
Read more
Sat, 09 Apr 2022 09:03:10 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209
AM CDT Sat Apr 09 2022
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS....
...Synopsis...
In the mid levels, a large low/trough across the eastern CONUS will
continue to weaken as it shifts eastward toward the Atlantic Coast
today. In its wake, a second lower-amplitude trough and associated jet
across the Great Basin and western US will move eastward over the
Plains late today and tonight. Increasing ascent in the lee of the
Rockies will support robust surface cyclogenesis across the central
and southern High Plains. Southerly winds are forecast to increase
within the very dry airmass in place supporting increased fire weather
concerns.
...High Plains...
As the shortwave trough ejects east through the central Rockies and
onto the Plains later in the evening, lee troughing and cyclogenesis
will enhance southwesterly surface flow across the Southwest and High
Plains. Widespread downslope winds of 20-25 mph are expected from
central NM, eastward across OK/TX and into southeastern CO. Warm
temperatures and adiabatic drying will further desiccate an already
dry airmass supporting widespread single digit humidity values. In
addition to the favorable meteorological overlap, prevalent dry fuels
with substantial recent fire activity will be in place. Widespread
Critical fire weather conditions are expected through the day and into
this evening. Some threat for fire activity may linger overnight
across the northern TX/OK Panhandles given poor humidity recoveries
and the strengthening lee low across eastern CO.
With increased forcing aloft ahead of a cold front associated with the
approaching shortwave trough, isolated thunderstorms may develop
across parts of the central Rockies this afternoon and evening. Area
averaged model soundings show deep and well-mixed boundary layers with
PWATS generally less than 0.4 inches. The deep inverted-v structure
and dry lower atmosphere may support a few dry thunderstorms across
northern CO and central/eastern WY. Storm coverage remains highly
uncertain given the meager moisture and buoyancy available. High
elevation fuels also remain somewhat unreceptive to starts given the
early occurrence compared to climatology. While no DryT area will be
added, some risk for a few dry strikes is possible within dry fuels at
lower elevations.
...Florida...
Lingering northwesterly flow behind a cold front and the upper
low/trough will support a few hours of gusty surface winds (10-15 mph)
across the southern Florida Peninsula. Despite recent rainfall, local
fuels remain dry, (ERCs 95th+ percentile) and diurnal RH minimums are
forecast to fall below 35%. The combination of dry and breezy
conditions within receptive fuels will support Elevated fire weather
Conditions.
...Northern California...
As the shortwave trough over the Great Basin shifts eastward,
mid-level flow will gradually become northwesterly ahead of an
upstream jet streak over the Pacific. The increasing northern
component in combination with a strong northerly pressure gradient at
the surface will support strong winds (15-25 mph) across the
Sacramento Valley. Downsloping within the post-frontal airmass will
support surface RH below 20% in combination with the strong surface
winds. While fuels are not overly dry, a few hours of elevated to near
Critical fire weather conditions appear likely.
..Lyons.. 04/09/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Sat, 09 Apr 2022 07:10:26 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211
AM CDT Sat Apr 09 2022
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS....
...Synopsis...
A low amplitude shortwave trough within broad southwesterly flow is
forecast to eject eastward across the central Plains through Sunday.
Behind the trough, strengthening mid-level winds will overspread much
of the Southwest and southern Plains. Enhanced by the flow aloft and a
strong surface low across eastern KS, low-level winds will become
quite strong within a very warm and dry airmass. Volatile fuels and
the dry/breezy conditions will support high-end Critical fire weather
conditions across parts of the southern Plains Sunday.
...Southern Plains...
As the main shortwave trough shifts farther east into the Plains
Sunday, mid-level flow will gradually veer to westerly ahead of an
increasingly strong Pacific jet. As the strong flow aloft overspreads
the Southwest and southern Plains Sunday morning, west-southwesterly
surface winds should rapidly increase. Model soundings show deep
vertical mixing within an extremely dry air mass near a pronounced
low-level thermal ridge. Afternoon RH values of 5-10% are excepted to
be widespread across portions of NM west TX and far western OK. Within
this corridor, surface winds of 20-30 mph are expected. Gusts of 35-40
mph also appear possible given the deep vertical mixing and increasing
flow aloft. With fuels in the 90th+ percentile common across the
Plains, widespread high-end critical fire weather conditions are
expected much of Sunday. A few hours of locally extremely critical
conditions may develop across eastern NM where locally stronger winds
appear more likely. Fire concerns may linger after sunset as strong
surface winds remain in place beneath the low-level jet and humidity
recoveries remain poor.
...Central Plains....
Downslope winds in the wake of the departing trough and strengthening
westerly flow are expected to spill out of the central Rockies and
onto the Plains. West to east surface pressure gradients will support
dry downslope flow and low RH despite falling temperatures. Dry fuels
suggest a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions are possible
across the central High Plains Sunday.
...Northern California...
As flow aloft behind the shortwave trough farther east begins to
weaken, a second deeper trough will begin to emerge across the eastern
Pacific. Ahead of this feature, stronger northwesterly flow aloft will
nose inland across the Sacramento Valley supporting gusty
northwesterly winds for a few hours Sunday. Rain chances will begin to
increase late Sunday as the approaching trough deepens and onshore
flow strengthens. Prior to that, a few hours of locally Elevated fire
conditions may develop within dry fuels across portions of northern
California.
..Lyons.. 04/09/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Sat, 09 Apr 2022 07:12:25 +0000
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