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LU9DCE > ALERT 11.04.22 19:00z 440 Lines 22312 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 11-ABR.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Mon, 11 Apr 2022
09:02:02 +0000 Mon, 11 Apr 2022 09:02:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Apr 11 09:02:02 UTC 2022 No
watches are valid as of Mon Apr 11 09:02:02 UTC 2022. Mon, 11
Apr 2022 09:01:05 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Mon Apr 11 09:02:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Apr 11
09:02:02 UTC 2022. Mon, 11 Apr 2022 09:01:04 +0000
SPC Apr 11, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM
CDT Mon Apr 11 2022
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Monday into
Monday night from parts of northeast Texas to the Mid-South and
vicinity, with the greatest threat expected over parts of Arkansas.
Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all
appear possible.
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the upper
Great Lakes region into eastern Canada today, as a longwave trough
begins to deepen over the western CONUS. At the surface, a weak cold
front is forecast to move slowly southward from the Ozark Plateau into
portions of the Midwest, while the western portion of the front will
stall out and begin lifting northward late tonight across the southern
Plains in response to a deepening cyclone near the CO Front Range.
...Arkansas and adjacent portions of northeast TX/southeast OK...Mid
South...and OH Valley... Convection will likely be ongoing at the
start of the period across parts of northern AR and southern MO,
mainly along and north of a convectively reinforced surface boundary.
MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and effective shear of 40+ kt will support a
threat of isolated hail and strong wind gusts with any elevated
clusters through the morning. One or more clusters may move into
portions of western TN and lower OH Valley through the day with a
continued threat of isolated wind/hail.
The outflow boundary will likely become nearly stationary by late
afternoon somewhere from eastern OK into central/northern AR. The
coverage and timing of any redevelopment near the outflow boundary
remains somewhat uncertain at this time, due to generally subtle
large-scale ascent across the region. However, the environment will
become conditionally favorable for supercells, as moderate to locally
strong instability develops with diurnal heating and effective shear
remains in the 40-50 kt range. It appears plausible that a few
supercells will develop by late afternoon/early evening within a
modest warm-advection regime across western into northern AR, and
potentially into far southeast OK/northeast TX. Locally backed flow
near the surface boundary will support a tornado threat, in addition
to the risk of hail (potentially significant) and locally damaging
wind gusts.
...Parts of central/north TX...
A conditionally favorable environment for supercells will be in place
along and east of a dryline into parts of central and north TX this
afternoon/evening. The potential for initiation remains highly
uncertain, however, with large-scale ascent expected to be negligible
across the region. Should initiation occur, a conditional risk of very
large hail and locally severe wind gusts will be present with any
sustained supercell.
..Dean/Lyons.. 04/11/2022
Read more
Mon, 11 Apr 2022 06:04:08 +0000
SPC Apr 11, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM
CDT Mon Apr 11 2022
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes should occur beginning late Tuesday
afternoon and continuing through Tuesday night across a broad portion
of the southern/central Plains into the Mississippi Valley. Some of
the tornadoes could be strong.
...Synopsis...
An amplified upper trough over the western CONUS will advance
east-northeastward on Tuesday, reaching the northern/central High
Plains by late Tuesday night. A low-amplitude, southern-stream
shortwave trough initially over northeast Mexico and the lower Rio
Grande Valley will move northeastward across the TX Coastal Plain
through Tuesday afternoon, and it should eventually reach the lower MS
Valley Tuesday night.
A deep surface low centered over northeastern CO and the western NE
Panhandle Tuesday morning is forecast to develop generally eastward
across NE through the day. This low should then further develop
east-northeastward across parts of the Upper Midwest Tuesday night. A
dryline extending southward from this low across much of the
central/southern Plains will sharpen through late Tuesday afternoon.
A cold front attendant to the low is expected to sweep
east-southeastward over much of the northern/central Plains and parts
of the mid MO Valley Tuesday evening/night. A strong cap associated
with an EML is expected to inhibit convective initiation along the
dryline through much of the day.
...Southern/Central Plains Tuesday Afternoon/Evening...
As the upper trough approaches and the surface low develops eastward,
a pronounced low-level mass response will usher rapid low-level
moisture return northward across the southern/central Plains and
lower/mid MS Valley and Midwest. Most guidance indicates that at least
low to mid 60s surface dewpoints will be in place to the east of the
dryline across these region by late Tuesday afternoon. Diurnal heating
of this moist airmass along with the presence of very steep mid-level
lapse rates associated with the EML will likely foster moderate to
strong instability along/east of the dryline extending from parts of
central TX to east-central KS. MLCAPE of 2500-4000+ J/kg appears
probable by peak afternoon heating. Mid-level southwesterly winds are
expected to gradually increase during the day, and around 35-50 kt of
deep-layer shear should be present along much of the dryline by late
Tuesday afternoon. This should be sufficient for organized storms,
including supercells.
The primary uncertainty remains how many thunderstorms will initiate
along the length of the dryline late Tuesday afternoon into the early
evening, as mid-level height falls/ascent preceding the upper trough
will remain fairly modest. Lingering convective inhibition may also
hinder coverage to some extent. Even with these uncertainties, it
appears probable that isolated to scattered thunderstorms will form
along the dryline from parts of central TX northward into
central/eastern KS. Any thunderstorms that can develop in this very
favorable thermodynamic environment will likely become severe quickly.
Given the large reservoir of buoyancy available, supercells will pose
a threat for very large hail (2+ inches), along with damaging winds as
they develop eastward through the evening. A southerly low-level jet
will rapidly strengthen Tuesday evening across this region, and a
corresponding increase in low-level shear is anticipated. Any
supercells that persist will be capable of producing tornadoes. With
the strength of the low-level shear that is forecast, a strong tornado
appears possible.
...Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley Tuesday
Evening/Night... Low-level moisture will return northward ahead of
the surface low and east of the dryline across eastern KS into far
eastern NE and much of IA/MO by Tuesday evening. Surface dewpoints may
only reach into the upper 50s to low 60s with northward extent into
IA. Even with this slightly more limited moisture, stronger
ascent/low-level convergence ahead of the surface low will likely aid
thunderstorm development by Tuesday evening. Confidence is greater in
convection forming over parts of eastern NE into IA in this time
frame.
A south-southwesterly low-level jet will rapidly strengthen to 50-60+
kt around 00-03Z. Both low-level and deep-layer shear appear very
supportive of supercells. Any thunderstorms that can remain discrete
will pose a threat for very large hail and tornadoes. Effective SRH
potentially exceeding 400 m2/s2 across IA Tuesday evening and the
strength of the low-level jet suggest a threat for a couple of strong
tornadoes. Have expanded the Enhanced Risk northward into more of IA
to account for this strong tornado potential. Greater tornado
probabilities may be needed across this area if confidence increases
that multiple supercells will develop. Otherwise, a line of forced
convection should develop along the cold front Tuesday night and pose
a threat for severe/damaging winds and tornadoes as it moves
southeastward across eastern KS and MO into early Wednesday morning.
Isolated large hail may also occur north of the warm front across
parts of the Upper Midwest.
...Texas Coastal Plain into the Lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday
Afternoon/Evening... As the southern-stream shortwave trough moves
over the TX Coastal Plain Tuesday, thunderstorms should develop across
parts of the upper TX Coast/east TX into LA. Diurnal heating of a
moist low-level airmass will contribute to the development of MLCAPE
generally ranging from 1000-2000 J/kg Tuesday afternoon. Enhanced
mid-level southwesterly winds around 40-50 kt will likely support
updraft organization, and a mix of multicells and supercells may
develop. These thunderstorms will pose a threat for large hail,
damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes as they spread
east-northeastward Tuesday afternoon/evening.
...ArkLaTex into the Ozarks and Mid-South Tuesday Night...
Depending on the evolution of thunderstorms across the southern
Plains, an isolated severe threat may persist Tuesday night over parts
of the ArkLaTex, Ozarks, and perhaps the Mid-South. A 50+ kt
south-southwesterly low-level jet is expected to overspread these
regions in this time frame, and rich low-level moisture should support
enough instability to maintain surface-based thunderstorms. Any
convection that can persist or form in this regime would pose a threat
for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail, as low-level and
deep-layer shear appear more than sufficient for supercells.
..Gleason.. 04/11/2022
Read more
Mon, 11 Apr 2022 06:05:53 +0000
SPC Apr 11, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM
CDT Mon Apr 11 2022
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely across a
large portion of the lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest,
Ohio Valley, and Southeast on Wednesday. Large to very large hail,
damaging winds and tornadoes will all be possible. Strong tornadoes
may occur.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough/low will continue to eject eastward from the Plains
across much of the MS Valley, Midwest and Great Lakes regions on
Wednesday. A surface low is likewise expected to advance generally
eastward across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes through the period. A
trailing cold front will sweep eastward Wednesday across much of the
MS/OH Valleys and Southeast as well.
...Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Southeast...
A substantial severe threat is evident for a large part of these
regions ahead of the cold front. Pronounced large-scale ascent
associated with the negatively tilted upper trough will likely
overspread the warm sector through the day. 60s surface dewpoints will
be present ahead of the front, with greater low-level moisture likely
in place from the lower OH Valley/Mid-South into the lower MS Valley
and Southeast. Diurnal heating of this airmass and the continued
presence of steepened lapse rates aloft should allow for moderate to
strong instability to develop by Wednesday afternoon. Deep-layer
shear generally in excess of 45-50 kt will support organized severe
thunderstorms, and low-level shear is also forecast to be quite
strong. Pre-frontal convection appears possible across parts of the
Mid-South and lower MS Valley vicinity through the day. If this
occurs, then supercells posing a threat for all severe hazards,
including strong tornadoes, would be likely. Linear convection is also
expected to develop along much of the length of the front, and this
activity will pose a threat for both damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes
as it spreads eastward Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Have opted to include a broad Enhanced Risk to account for numerous to
potentially widespread damaging winds, and several tornadoes. The main
uncertainty precluding greater severe probabilities at this time is
the possible effect of early-day convection across the lower MS
Valley/Mid-South on prospects for substantial destabilization later in
the afternoon. Given the strong flow and sufficient instability
forecast, at least an isolated severe threat should continue with
eastward extent across the OH Valley, TN Valley, and Southeast
Wednesday night.
..Gleason.. 04/11/2022
Read more
Mon, 11 Apr 2022 07:37:02 +0000
SPC Apr 11, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346
AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A deep upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest should be in an occluding
phase on Day 4/Thursday as it moves slowly eastward across the Great
Lakes and adjacent portions of Canada. A cold front should continue
moving quickly eastward across much of the eastern CONUS on Thursday.
Low-level moisture ahead of the front will probably be sufficient for
thunderstorms, but instability is forecast to remain fairly weak.
While a threat for strong to damaging winds may exist from parts of
the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, the overall severe
risk currently appears marginal/isolated.
The upper low over the Great Lakes should slowly meander eastward
across Canada from Day 5/Friday into the upcoming weekend. Low-level
moisture will attempt to return northward across parts of the
Southeast and southern Plains in this time frame. Another upper trough
may move over parts of the western/central states from Day 6/Saturday
into Day 7/Sunday. An organized severe risk may develop across parts
of the southern Plains into the lower/mid MS Valley in this time
frame. However, too much uncertainty currently exists in the timing of
the upper trough and placement of related surface features to include
any 15% severe areas at this time.
Read more
Mon, 11 Apr 2022 08:48:58 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153
AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS....
...Synopsis...
An initial low-amplitude shortwave trough within westerly flow over
Coastal California will begin to rapidly deepen this morning ahead of
a potent 90 kt upstream jet streak. As heights aloft fall in response
to strong DCVA, a surface low will quickly deepen over the Great Basin
and western slopes of the central Rockies before it shifts eastward
onto the Plains late tonight. Breezy surface flow over the Southwest
and southern/central High Plains will overlap with a very dry airmass
and supportive fuels. Critical fire weather potential appears likely.
...Southern High Plains...
Intensifying mid-level westerlies will gradually become more
southwesterly with time this morning as the upstream shortwave trough
deepens. Regional model soundings show deep inverted-v profiles owing
to strong diurnal mixing intersecting with 40 kt 500 mb flow. As the
boundary layer deepens through the day, surface winds will increase in
response to downward momentum transport from aloft. At the same time,
the westerly flow will enhance lee troughing bolstering west to east
surface pressure gradients through the afternoon. Hi-res guidance and
model soundings show high-confidence in sustained boundary-layer winds
of 20-30 mph with the potential for higher gusts, especially with
western extent. With a strong westerly component, downsloping
trajectories will support widespread RH below 15%. Fuels remain very
receptive to fire spread suggesting high confidence in Critical fire
weather conditions this afternoon. Some threat may linger overnight as
the main trough and jet eject eastward onto the Plains. Poor overnight
recoveries are expected, and while winds will likely slacken after
dark, areas in proximity to the higher terrain may retain near
critical winds overnight.
...Central High Plains...
Unlike areas farther south, low-level surface flow across the central
Plains will be dominated by tightening surface pressure gradients
ahead of the western surface low. Regardless, gusty southeasterly
surface winds are likely to develop by mid-morning in response to the
approaching low. Ahead of the surging Gulf moisture, dry surface
conditions with RH of 15-20% should be more than sufficient for
widespread Elevated and Critical fire weather conditions as far north
as NE. Surface RH may begin to increase through the afternoon and in
the evening on the eastern fringes of the Elevated and Critical areas
as moisture advection increases east of the fast moving low. However,
low-level flow is forecast to remain quite strong suggesting some fire
weather potential may linger overnight given the exceptionally dry
nature of area fuels.
..Lyons.. 04/11/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Mon, 11 Apr 2022 06:55:26 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159
AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS....
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
A potent shortwave trough and 80-90 kt mid-level jet streak will
quickly eject eastward out of the Rockies and over the Plains Tuesday.
As the trough takes on a prominent negative tilt, a sub-990 mb lee low
will move quickly northeast across the central Plains toward the upper
Midwest. Trailing the low, a sharp dryline will bisect the warm sector
with hot and dry surface conditions expected to its west. Within this
zone, the overlap of strong unidirectional flow through out the column
will support widespread sustained winds of 30-40 mph and frequent
gusts to 50+ mph. Ongoing extreme drought and exceptionally dry fuels
will support Extremely Critical fire weather conditions and the
potential for a dangerous fire weather outbreak.
...A significant fire weather outbreak is possible across the
southern and central High Plains Tuesday....
...Southern/Central High Plains...
As the upper trough ejects eastward over the central and northern
Plains Tuesday, very strong mid-level flow (80-90 kt) will overspread
an increasing warm and dry boundary layer west of the dryline across
the southern and central High Plains. Strong daytime heating and
subsidence beneath the ribbon of strong momentum aloft will aid in the
development of a prominent low-level thermal ridge with temperatures
reaching the low to mid 90s F from central KS southwestward across
western OK/TX. Coincident with the thermal ridge, deep vertical mixing
and the hot temperatures will support very dry surface conditions with
widespread surface RH below 10%. An overlapping southwesterly
low-level jet of 40-60 kts will bolster flow already enhanced by the
strong surface pressure trough/dryline across western KS, TX and OK.
Widespread sustained surface winds of 30-40 mph are expected with
frequent gusts to 50-60 mph possible.
Conditions farther north into the central Plains may take somewhat
longer to develop Tuesday morning owing to lingering mid-level cloud
cover and a more diffuse moisture gradient. Closer to the surface low,
low-level mass response should be quite strong supporting widespread
winds of 25-40 mph within the drying airmass. Fuels are less volatile
with northern extent, but remain overall favorable for large fire
development/spread. High-end critical conditions appear likely into
eastern Nebraska with Elevated conditions possible farther west where
humidity is forecast to be higher.
Fuels across the Plains remain highly receptive to fire starts/spread
owing to severe drought and several preceding days of Critically dry
and windy conditions. ERC values in the 90-95th percentile are
ubiquitous across the southern High Plains setting the stage for
exceptionally volatile fire weather conditions. High confidence exists
in several hours of Extremely Critical fire weather conditions
developing beneath the 850-700 mb jet core from west TX, through the
Panhandles, western OK, and into western KS where high-end parameter
space for both meteorological conditions and fuel states exists.
..Lyons.. 04/11/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Mon, 11 Apr 2022 07:01:27 +0000
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