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LU9DCE > ALERT 12.04.22 22:04z 422 Lines 21360 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 12-ABR.22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<N9PMO<VE3UIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 220412/1830Z 5601@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Tue, 12 Apr 2022
08:46:01 +0000 Tue, 12 Apr 2022 08:46:01 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue Apr 12 08:46:01 UTC 2022 No
watches are valid as of Tue Apr 12 08:46:01 UTC 2022. Tue, 12
Apr 2022 08:45:06 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Tue Apr 12 08:46:01 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Apr 12
08:46:01 UTC 2022. Tue, 12 Apr 2022 08:45:05 +0000
SPC Apr 12, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM
CDT Tue Apr 12 2022
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN
NE...MUCH OF IA...FAR SOUTHERN MN...NORTHEAST KS...NORTHWEST MO...AND
ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TX...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes should occur beginning late Tuesday
afternoon and continuing through Tuesday night across a broad portion
of the southern/central Plains into the Mississippi Valley. Some of
the tornadoes could be strong.
...Synopsis...
A deep mid/upper-level longwave trough is forecast to amplify over the
central/western CONUS today. A strong embedded shortwave trough over
the central/northern Rockies is forecast to intensify and move toward
the central/northern High Plains by this evening, as a separate
low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from TX toward the lower MS
Valley. A surface cyclone will move eastward from northeast CO through
NE into IA by this evening, as a warm front surges northward in
advance of the cyclone, and a cold front begins accelerating
southeastward across the central Plains in the wake of the cyclone.
A potentially volatile severe thunderstorm environment will develop
across a broad area of the central/southern Plains into the lower/mid
MS Valley by late afternoon. However, considerable uncertainty remains
regarding the coverage of storms across parts of the warm sector.
...Central Plains into parts of the Midwest...
Thunderstorm development is possible by late afternoon near the
surface low/triple point, and potentially in a zone between the warm
front and effective dryline, somewhere across eastern NE/western IA
into southern MN. Moisture return across the warm sector will be
relatively modest (generally upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints), but
will be sufficient for the development of moderate buoyancy due to the
presence of steep midlevel lapse rates and relatively cool
temperatures aloft. Wind profiles will be quite favorable for
supercells near the triple point and in the vicinity of the warm
front, with very strong deep-layer shear and enlarged low-level
hodographs. Any discrete supercells that develop within this regime
will be capable of all severe hazards, including the potential for
strong tornadoes and very large hail. Uncertainty remains regarding
the coverage of warm sector development, as well as the placement of
the surface low and warm front near and just after peak heating. An
upgrade may eventually be needed once there is greater confidence in
the placement of these features.
Later this evening, more widespread convection is expected along the
surging cold front, resulting in an increasing damaging wind threat
with time tonight. Some brief tornado threat may also be present with
any embedded circulations within the line of frontal convection,
though storms will eventually be undercut as the front surges into a
region of increasing MLCINH.
...South-central KS into western/central OK...
A very favorable supercell environment will develop along and ahead of
the dryline from central KS into western/central OK late this
afternoon. However, this region will be between the main midlevel
trough and surface low to the north, and the ejecting low-amplitude
shortwave trough to the south. While guidance generally removes all
MLCINH along the dryline, there is very little signal for initiation
in this region. An isolated supercell or two cannot be ruled out, but
confidence is too low to maintain a 30% hail risk. Please note that a
Slight Risk remains across this area, with conditional potential for
very large hail and a couple of tornadoes if storms can develop.
...Central/North TX into the lower MS Valley...
There is a greater signal for storm development during the afternoon
evening is this region compared to parts of OK/KS, likely due to the
influence of the ejecting low-amplitude trough. Storms may develop as
soon as mid afternoon near the dryline. Effective shear of 35-45 kt
will favor a few eastward-moving supercells and/or organized clusters
into late afternoon/early evening. Moderate-to-strong buoyancy and
steep midlevel lapse rates will support a threat of very large hail
and severe wind gusts with the strongest cells/clusters. Any
supercells that can persist into the richer low-level moisture east of
the dryline may also pose some tornado threat.
Further east across the ArkLaTex vicinity, scattered thunderstorm
development is possible during the afternoon/evening within a warm
advection regime. Uncertainty remains regarding the potential for
organized convection in this area, but instability and shear will
support some hail/wind risk with the strongest storms, and low-level
shear/helicity may be sufficient for a couple of tornadoes as well.
..Dean/Lyons.. 04/12/2022
Read more
Tue, 12 Apr 2022 06:04:23 +0000
SPC Apr 12, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM
CDT Tue Apr 12 2022
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely across a large portion of
the lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and
Southeast on Wednesday. Damaging winds, some of which could be
significant, several tornadoes (some strong), and large to very large
hail will likely occur.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough/low will continue to eject from the Plains across the
MS Valley and into the Midwest and Great Lakes region on Wednesday.
The southern portion of the trough will likely acquire a negative tilt
as it moves over the mid MS Valley and Midwest through the day. A
60-80+ kt mid-level jet will also overspread these regions, with a
broader area of enhanced mid-level winds encompassing much of the
surface warm sector. A surface low over the Upper Midwest Wednesday
morning is forecast to develop eastward over the Upper Great Lakes
through the day. An attendant cold front will sweep east-southeastward
over much of the Midwest, lower/mid MS Valley, and Southeast through
the period.
...Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Southeast...
Isolated to scattered convection will probably be ongoing Wednesday
morning along/ahead of the front across parts of the lower/mid MS
Valley. This morning activity will be aided by strong low-level warm
advection associated with a 40-50+ kt southwesterly low-level jet.
Any ongoing thunderstorms may continue to pose an isolated severe
threat given the strength of the low/mid-level flow and sufficient
instability to support surface-based thunderstorms. Additional
thunderstorms are expected to form along and ahead of the front by
late Wednesday morning into the early afternoon. The presence of at
least low to mid 60s surface dewpoints extending as far north as
IL/IN, coupled with filtered diurnal heating, will support the
development of generally 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Stronger
instability (MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/kg) may develop across parts of the
lower MS Valley Wednesday afternoon, as steeper mid-level lapse rates
should be present over this area.
Strong effective bulk shear of 45-55+ kt will likely exist owing to
the enhanced mid-level winds associated with the ejecting upper
trough. Low-level shear will also remain enhanced over much of the
warm sector as the low-level jet translates slowly eastward through
the period. Organized severe thunderstorms are expected given the
strong low-level and deep-layer shear. Convection will likely organize
into a bowing line along or just ahead of the cold front. Scattered
to numerous severe/damaging winds appear likely as this line develops
and subsequently matures over parts of the lower/mid MS Valley into
the lower OH Valley. Significant gusts of 75+ mph appear possible.
Pre-frontal supercells may also occur over this region, and several
tornadoes appear likely with either the leading supercells or with
embedded QLCS circulations. Large hail will also be a threat with any
thunderstorms that can remain at least somewhat discrete, and isolated
very large (2+ inch) hail appears possible centered over the lower MS
Valley and vicinity where steeper mid-level lapse rates should reside.
At least an isolated severe threat should persist with eastward extent
into the OH/TN Valleys and parts of the Southeast Wednesday
evening/night. However, low-level moisture and instability will be
more limited across these areas.
...New York/Pennsylvania...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Wednesday
afternoon as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves over NY/PA.
Although low-level moisture will remain fairly limited, sufficient
deep-layer shear should exist for modest updraft organization. A few
instances of hail and strong to damaging winds may occur as
thunderstorms spread eastward through the early evening.
..Gleason.. 04/12/2022
Read more
Tue, 12 Apr 2022 06:06:17 +0000
SPC Apr 12, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM
CDT Tue Apr 12 2022
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
An isolated threat for strong/damaging thunderstorm winds may exist
across parts of the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
A deep upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes should
continue occluding as it moves slowly northeastward into Canada. The
primary surface low will remain over these regions as well, while a
secondary low should develop eastward over parts of the Northeast
through the day. A cold front will also move eastward over much of the
eastern states, but it should stall over the Southeast.
...Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England...
Adequate low-level moisture should be in place ahead of the cold front
for surface-based thunderstorms to develop by Thursday afternoon.
Diurnal heating coupled with the sufficiently moist low-level airmass
and somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates should be enough to
support weak instability. Convergence along the front itself appears
weak, as low-level winds are forecast to gradually veer to westerly
through the day. Still, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will
probably develop Thursday afternoon along much of the front extending
from parts of the central Gulf Coast northeastward into the Carolinas,
Mid-Atlantic, and perhaps southern New England. Mid-level winds will
be stronger with northward extent across the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support some
organization with these thunderstorms. Isolated strong to damaging
winds should be the main threat as convection spreads eastward and
eventually off the East Coast through Thursday evening.
..Gleason.. 04/12/2022
Read more
Tue, 12 Apr 2022 07:31:04 +0000
SPC Apr 12, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342
AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Gulf moisture should attempt to return northward across parts of the
southern Plains and Southeast beginning on Day 4/Friday and continuing
through the upcoming weekend. A dryline is forecast to set up over
parts of central TX each afternoon in this time frame. It remains
unclear how much, if any, convection will develop each day to the east
of the dryline, as mid-level flow should be fairly zonal. Still,
multiple lower-amplitude shortwave troughs may move over the
western/central CONUS and provide sufficient large-scale ascent to aid
convective initiation over parts of the southern Plains eastward into
the lower MS Valley from Day 4/Friday through at least Day 6/Sunday.
An isolated threat for organized severe thunderstorms could
materialize across portions of these regions on one or more days, but
confidence in the placement and overall coverage of convection remains
too low to delineate any 15% severe areas at this time. On Day
7/Monday, some severe risk may exist over parts of the Southeast as an
upper trough possibly amplifies over the MS/OH Valleys. However,
details remain very uncertain at this extended time frame.
Read more
Tue, 12 Apr 2022 08:45:04 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204
AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF WEST TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA INTO KANSAS....
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS....
...Synopsis...
A potent upper low observed by regional IR/WV imagery early this
morning is currently undergoing rapid deepening across the Central
Rockies. Forecast to rapidly eject eastward onto the Plains by early
afternoon, this trough and an accompanying 80-90 kt jet streak will
support further intensification of an already strong lee low and
surface wind field across the southern/central Plains. A dryline
trailing the low will bisect a broad warm sector as it mixes east
through the afternoon leaving very dry surface conditions in its wake.
A rare combination of exceptionally dry fuels and high-end
meteorological parameter space lends strong confidence in Extremely
Critical fire weather conditions and the possibility of a significant
wildfire event across the southern/central High Plains.
*An outbreak of dangerous wildfire conditions is likely across the
southern and central high Plains Today!*
...West Texas through western Oklahoma and into Kansas...
Latest NWP timing guidance has firmed up solutions on the ejection of
the primary upper trough and associated jet streak across the Plains.
The mid-level system, slightly slower than previous guidance, should
begin to move out over the southern and central High Plains by mid
morning. As strong ascent overspreads the High Plains, the lee low
should continue to deepen peaking below 990 mb across western NE
before quickly moving northeast into the upper Midwest by tonight.
With strong surface pressure falls and the emergence of the mid and
low-level jet, strong surface winds of 30-45 mph and 55+ mph gusts
should quickly develop in the southwest quadrant of the low coincident
with the low-level thermal ridge. Subsidence/mixing beneath the jet,
downslope trajectories and surface temperatures climbing into the 90s
F should rapidly decrease surface RH within the corridor of maximum
winds through the afternoon. By peak heating, surface RH in the mid
single digits will be possible within the broader area of RH less than
10% across the southern/central High Plains. Peak fire weather
conditions are expected from roughly 18-23z across a southwest to
northeast corridor from western TX through the Panhandles and western
OK into western/central KS where hi-res guidance shows Fosberg index
values over 90.
Some uncertainty exists in the eastern extent of Critical and
Extremely Critical conditions based on model differences with respect
to the dryline. While a tight gradient will exist, strong winds within
the surface pressure trough in the vicinity of the dryline will likely
support Elevated and Critical fire weather potential. Another concern
will be the presence of a fast moving cold front expected to travel
southeast across the Critical area near sunset. Strong winds along the
front as well as a prominent wind shift to the north/northwest may
impact fire direction and spread rates despite cooling temperatures
and slow rising RH.
...Central High Plains...
To the west of the main risk corridor, strong downslope winds are
expected in the wake of the aforementioned cold front. While
uncertainty remains high with respect to surface RH conditions behind
the cooler airmass across western NE and SD, at least a few hours of
very strong northwesterly winds may align with relatively dry surface
conditions amid dry fuels. The Elevated area was expanded westward to
account for at least some fire weather potential given the magnitude
of low-level flow near the strong surface low.
Across much of the southern/central Plains, fuels states are
exceptionally volatile. ERC values in the 90-95th percentile are
ubiquitous across the southern High Plains with lesser, but still very
dry conditions extending farther north into the central High Plains.
Severe drought, several antecedent days of Critical drying and
numerous reports of large fires over the preceding days shows fuel
beds are extremely receptive to fire starts and spreads. High
confidence exists in several hours of Extremely Critical fire weather
conditions developing beneath the low-level jet core and thermal ridge
axis from west TX, through the Panhandles, western OK, and into
western KS. The overlap of rare meteorological and fuel parameter
space matches well with several Great Plains wildfire outbreak analogs
giving further confidence in significant potential for a widespread
and high-end fire weather outbreak.
..Lyons.. 04/12/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Tue, 12 Apr 2022 07:06:26 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206
AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
As the powerful mid-level cyclone shifts northeastward through Day
1/Tuesday, mid-level flow will turn northwesterly and accelerate over
the Southwest and Southern High Plains. Despite cooling temperatures,
very strong wind fields and very low humidity are expected to develop
support a second day of widespread Critical fire weather conditions
within receptive fuels.
...Central/Southern High Plains...
With the mid-level jet turning more westerly with time behind the
departing upper low across the Midwest, strong west/northwesterly flow
will continue to overspread the southern Rockies and High Plains.
Strong downslope winds are expected from eastern NM into the western
TX Panhandle Wednesday afternoon and evening. With strong subsidence
and downsloping, extremely dry surface conditions appear likely to
develop with model soundings showing mean mixed-layer RH values as low
as 2-3%. Extremely dry fuels remain in place supporting high
confidence in dangerous fire weather conditions.
Lesser confidence exists in the potential for sustained Extremely
Critical conditions across portions of eastern NM and the southwestern
TX Panhandle. The primary concerns revolve around duration of the
stronger winds as a cooler boundary-layer and cold front may limit any
Extremely Critical Conditions. Offset from the brunt of diurnal
heating, overlap appears to be small casting significant uncertainty.
However, fuel states remain exceptionally favorable for fire
spreads/starts supporting at least the potential for an upgrade to
Extremely critical in subsequent outlooks.
...Central High Plains...
In the wake of the earlier cold front, dry and windy conditions should
develop for a few hours across the central High Plains and lee of the
Rockies. The potential for light precipitation from Day 1 is not
expected to hamper extremely dry fuels in place across the region.
While surface temperatures should be cool in the post-frontal airmass,
low relative humidity and gusty winds should support Elevated fire
weather potential for a few hours before the arrival of cooler
temperatures and higher humidity overnight.
..Lyons.. 04/12/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Tue, 12 Apr 2022 07:07:30 +0000
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