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LU9DCE > ALERT 14.04.22 19:50z 308 Lines 14683 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5672_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 14-ABR.22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<N9PMO<VE3UIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 220414/1830Z 5672@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Thu, 14 Apr 2022
08:57:02 +0000 Thu, 14 Apr 2022 08:57:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu Apr 14 08:57:02 UTC 2022 No
watches are valid as of Thu Apr 14 08:57:02 UTC 2022. Thu, 14
Apr 2022 08:56:06 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Thu Apr 14 08:57:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Apr 14
08:57:02 UTC 2022. Thu, 14 Apr 2022 08:56:05 +0000
SPC Apr 14, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM
CDT Thu Apr 14 2022
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
...SUMMARY...
A threat for scattered damaging thunderstorm winds is expected across
parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, mainly this afternoon and
early evening.
...Synopsis...
A large mid/upper-level low and associated surface cyclone will move
from the Upper Great Lakes region into Ontario today. An attendant
cold front will move through parts of the Southeast, Mid Atlantic, and
New England, with a weak frontal wave potentially developing across
southern New England during the late afternoon/evening.
...Mid Atlantic into southern New England...
Modest low-level moisture (dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low
60s F) will be in place ahead of the front today across the Mid
Atlantic into parts of New England. Relatively robust heating (70s to
low 80s F) will result in the development of weak to locally moderate
buoyancy, with MLCAPE expected to be in the 500-1000 J/kg range.
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the front by
mid-afternoon, with convection spreading into the I-95 corridor by
late afternoon or early evening. Relatively strong midlevel flow on
the periphery of the large mid/upper-level low will support effective
shear of 40+ kts, sufficient for some storm organization. Low-level
flow is expected to remain rather weak, but relatively steep low-level
lapse rates will support some damaging wind potential with the
strongest cells/clusters.
...GA into the Carolinas/southeast VA...
Weak-to-moderate buoyancy will also develop ahead of the front across
from GA into the Carolinas and southeast VA, though midlevel flow and
deep-layer shear will be weaker compared to areas further north. With
relatively limited large-scale ascent across the region, the timing
and coverage of thunderstorm development remain somewhat uncertain,
but at least isolated cells/clusters appear possible by late
afternoon. Convection may remain somewhat disorganized due to the
relatively weak deep-layer shear, but steep low-level lapse rates will
support some potential for damaging winds with the strongest storms.
Marginal hail also cannot be ruled out in areas where somewhat
stronger buoyancy can materialize.
..Dean/Lyons.. 04/14/2022
Read more
Thu, 14 Apr 2022 05:46:06 +0000
SPC Apr 14, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM
CDT Thu Apr 14 2022
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
MID-SOUTH...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday evening and
night from parts of central/eastern Oklahoma into the lower
Mississippi Valley and Mid-South. Large hail and damaging winds should
be the main threats if thunderstorms develop, but a tornado or two
also appears possible.
...Synopsis...
A deep upper low is forecast to remain centered over Ontario/Quebec on
Friday. A belt of around 50-60 kt mid-level westerly winds should
extend over much of the central CONUS to the south of the upper low.
Quasi-zonal flow aloft should persist over the southern Plains into
the lower MS Valley through the period. Multiple low-amplitude,
mid-level disturbances may move across these regions. Surface high
pressure will shift off the East Coast through the day, with a weak
surface low forecast to develop over the southern High Plains. A
dryline will extend southward from this low over central TX.
...Central/Eastern Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
Rich low-level moisture originating from the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico will likely return northward across east TX, eastern OK, and
the lower MS Valley to the east of the dryline through early Friday
evening. The presence of somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates and
diurnal heating of this moist airmass should encourage the development
of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late Friday afternoon. The
enhanced mid-level westerly flow mentioned previously should support
rather strong deep-layer shear, with 40-50+ kt of effective bulk shear
likely. This favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment will
conditionally support organized severe thunderstorms, including the
potential for supercells.
However, considerable uncertainty remains whether convection will
initiate along/east of the dryline in central/eastern OK or western AR
late Friday afternoon into the early evening and remain surface based.
Large-scale ascent aloft appears nebulous at best in this time frame.
Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms may form in this
region or along the developing warm front farther east Friday
evening/night in tandem with a 25-40 kt southwesterly low-level jet.
If thunderstorms can form, they would be capable of producing isolated
large hail and damaging winds as they move eastward towards the lower
MS Valley and Mid-South Friday night. A tornado or two also appears
possible mainly Friday evening if a supercell can form and remain
surface based. At this point, there is not enough confidence in
convection occurring to include greater severe probabilities.
..Gleason.. 04/14/2022
Read more
Thu, 14 Apr 2022 05:48:48 +0000
SPC Apr 14, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM
CDT Thu Apr 14 2022
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Saturday
across portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi
Valley and Southeast.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough/low should develop eastward across the OH Valley,
Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast on Saturday. A shortwave trough is
forecast to move quickly eastward from coastal central CA to the
southern/central High Plains through the period. Generally neutral
mid-level heights and quasi-zonal flow aloft should be present over
the southern Plains into the MS Valley and Southeast. A weak surface
low centered over north-central TX Saturday morning should gradually
weaken through the day as a front sags southward over OK/AR. A dryline
should extend southward from this low over central TX.
...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
Aided by modest low-level warm advection, mainly elevated
thunderstorms may be ongoing Saturday morning from parts of eastern OK
into the Southeast. This activity may pose an isolated threat for some
hail. Rich low-level moisture will likely be present to the east of
the dryline and south of the front. Diurnal heating and modestly steep
mid-level lapse rates should foster weak to moderate instability
across parts of central/east TX into the Arklamiss region and perhaps
southern AL. Although these areas should remain to the south of
stronger mid-level flow, there should be enough veering/strengthening
of the wind profile with height to support moderate deep-layer shear
and updraft organization.
The morning activity could strengthen and pose an isolated threat for
large hail and damaging winds through Saturday afternoon as it spreads
southward across the lower MS Valley and parts of the central Gulf
Coast. Additional convective development appears possible along the
dryline late Saturday afternoon. The best chance for initiation may be
along/near the front/dryline intersection, which should be located in
the vicinity of north-central TX. If thunderstorms can form in this
region, they would also be capable of producing isolated large hail
and severe/damaging winds. Have opted to include low severe
probabilities for now, as confidence in overall storm coverage remains
fairly low owing to a lack of large-scale ascent aloft.
..Gleason.. 04/14/2022
Read more
Thu, 14 Apr 2022 07:32:08 +0000
SPC Apr 14, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354
AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance remains in reasonably good agreement that a
shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains into the lower
MS Valley and Southeast on Day 4/Sunday. Thunderstorms may form to the
south of a front and east of a dryline across parts of these areas
mainly Sunday afternoon and evening. There are some indications that
the enhanced mid-level flow accompanying the shortwave trough and
related deep-layer shear will be adequate for organized thunderstorms
across the warm sector. Instability should be capable of supporting
surface-based convection as well. Confidence in the placement and
overall coverage of thunderstorms remains too low to include a 15%
severe area at this time. However, at least low severe probabilities
will likely be needed if current model trends continue.
Depending on the progression of the upper trough, an isolated severe
threat may persist across some portion of the Southeast on Day
5/Monday. Low-level moisture may attempt to return northward over the
southern/central Plains and lower/mid MS Valley in the early to middle
part of next week. However, it remains unclear whether any meaningful
severe threat will develop across these regions, as multiple upper
troughs may tend to remain displaced to the north of the surface warm
sector from Day 6/Tuesday onward.
Read more
Thu, 14 Apr 2022 08:56:57 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154
AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...Synopsis...
Largely zonal flow will continue across the western CONUS in the wake
of a de-amplifying mid-level low across the eastern US. Lee troughing
will gradually strengthen surface winds supporting downslope flow from
the central High Plains to southern NM. Dry surface conditions and
gusty winds will support Elevated fire weather concerns for a few
hours this afternoon.
...Southern High Plains...
Within the modified post-frontal airmass across the central US,
westerly flow will dominate the atmosphere in the absence of stronger
mid-level perturbations. Subtle lee troughing should develop by mid
morning, enhancing downslope flow across the southern/central Plains.
Very dry surface conditions are again expected with RH values in the
low single digits possible. Wind fields will be relatively modest
(less than 20 mph) owing to relatively poor phasing of stronger flow
aloft and the lack of stronger surface troughing. However, the
extremely dry conditions and very dry fuels will likely still support
widespread Elevated and near-Critical conditions from eastern NM into
portions of west TX.
Farther north across the central High Plains, low-level wind fields
will be somewhat stronger beneath the zonal flow aloft. Winds of 15-25
mph may support brief Critical conditions within 15-20% RH and dry
fuels. However, confidence in sustained Critical conditions is lower
within the cooler airmass where a limited duration of Critical wind/RH
conditions are expected.
..Lyons.. 04/14/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Thu, 14 Apr 2022 06:57:26 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155
AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...Synopsis...
Zonal flow across the southwestern and central US will persist, but
weaken Friday as mid-level heights rise ahead of a subtle mid-level
ridge. A weak lee low over the TX Panhandle will bolster low-level
southwesterly flow across portions of the southern High Plains ahead
of a cold front sliding south through Kansas. The dry and breezy
conditions will support a few hours of Elevated fire weather potential
across the southern High Plains Friday.
...Central and Southern High Plains...
Dry and breezy conditions should continue Friday with westerly
downslope flow across portions of eastern NM and west TX. Surface
winds are again expected to be relatively modest as flow aloft weakens
in response to the subtle sub-tropical ridge. Somewhat stronger winds
(15-20 mph) may develop within proximity to the weak lee cyclone over
the western TX Panhandle, but with relatively limited duration.
Warming surface temperatures and continued downsloping will however
support an extremely dry airmass with low single digit RH values like
across much of the southern High Plains. Given the crisis state of
fuels across much of the region, Elevated to locally Critical
conditions are expected for a few hours despite the weak winds. The
highest confidence in near-Critical conditions is expected across
parts of eastern NM where winds maybe somewhat stronger (15-20+ mph)
supporting a locally greater fire weather threat.
..Lyons.. 04/14/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Thu, 14 Apr 2022 06:58:13 +0000
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