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LU9DCE > ALERT 16.04.22 23:00z 289 Lines 12607 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5768_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 16-ABR.22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 220416/2031Z 5768@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Sat, 16 Apr 2022
09:48:01 +0000 Sat, 16 Apr 2022 09:48:01 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 134 WW 134 SEVERE TSTM AR OK
160655Z - 161500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 134 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 155 AM CDT Sat Apr 16
2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western and central Arkansas Eastern Oklahoma
* Effective this Saturday morning from 155 AM until 1000 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...A growing area of strong-severe thunderstorms, initially in
watch 132, will persist beyond that watch's expiration time, and
expand/shift into Arkansas as well. Additional thunderstorms should
form in both areas through at least midmorning. Large hail (some
potentially 2+ inches in diameter) will be the main threat. Some of
the storms may become surface-based in Arkansas, and a severe-gust
potential or conditional tornado threat may develop.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west southwest
of Muskogee OK to 5 miles north of Little Rock AR. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64
KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable
for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in
these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather
conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 132...WW 133...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3
inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29030.
...Edwards
Read more
Sat, 16 Apr 2022 06:56:02 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 134 Status Reports WW 0134 Status
Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0134 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
Sat, 16 Apr 2022 06:56:04 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sat Apr 16 09:48:03 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Apr 16
09:48:03 UTC 2022. Sat, 16 Apr 2022 09:47:04 +0000
SPC Apr 16, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM
CDT Sat Apr 16 2022
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong storms may pose a risk for severe wind and
hail Saturday from parts of the Arklatex and lower Mississippi Valley
into parts of the Southeast. An isolated severe storm or two is also
possible across the Texas Edwards Plateau and Hill Country vicinity.
...Arklatex/Lower MS Valley...
Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts broad upper anticyclone over
Mexico, extending into far west TX. Over the next 24 hours, very minor
disturbances will translate through this ridge, then dig southeast
toward the northeast Gulf Coast. A more significant short-wave trough
will eject into the central/southern High Plains by daybreak Sunday.
Net result will be negligible height changes much of the period. As a
result, surface front that currently drapes from IL-Ozarks-central OK
is expected to only sag slowly south across the lower MS Valley, aided
in part by convection that develops along/north of the boundary.
An expansive corridor of convection currently extends ahead of the
wind shift from northern MS/western TN into KY. This activity has
evolved into an MCS that should propagate southeast through sunrise,
likely establishing a northwest-southeast boundary that should serve
as a demarcation for robust convection Saturday. Low-level warm
advection appears to be supporting new convection across eastern OK at
0530z, and this activity may continue to evolve into the start of the
day1 period. Mean northwesterly flow should favor ongoing
convection/new development propagating southeast along the
aforementioned convective boundary across AR-MS. Latest model guidance
does not suggest particularly intense boundary-layer heating along the
boundary, but modest buoyancy and strong sfc-6km bulk shear favor
potential supercells along with multicell clusters. Wind gusts and
isolated large hail are the primary risks from the Arklatex into the
lower MS Valley.
...TX...
Surface front is forecast to surge a bit quicker/farther south across
TX than points east. By peak heating this wind shift should extend
from near Dallas, trailing just northwest of the Balcones Escarpment
to near the international border. In the absence of large-scale
support aloft, weak low-level convergence will likely limit convection
along this wind shift. Will maintain 5 percent severe probabilities
for wind/hail due to an outside chance for an isolated strong/severe
thunderstorm trailing along the front.
..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/16/2022
Read more
Sat, 16 Apr 2022 05:48:00 +0000
SPC Apr 16, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM
CDT Sat Apr 16 2022
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible across
the U.S. Monday through Monday night.
...Discussion...
Models suggest that mid/upper flow will lose amplitude across the
Pacific coast through the Rockies during this period, while undergoing
considerable amplification downstream, east of the mid/upper
Mississippi Valley through the northern Atlantic Seaboard and adjacent
Atlantic. This is forecast to include the continuing evolution of a
rather significant upper trough digging southeast of the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes region into the Northeast. It appears that a
preceding perturbation in lower latitudes will undergo considerable
deformation while crossing the southern and middle Atlantic Coast
states, and offshore by early Monday evening. It is possible that the
lead impulse may be accompanied by another developing wave along a
frontal zone across Georgia into the Carolinas. However, stronger
surface cyclogenesis probably will not occur until Monday night,
offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast, in response to the approach of the
more significant upper trough.
...Southeast...
Remnant thunderstorm activity from Sunday night may be ongoing early
Monday across parts of Georgia into the Florida Panhandle. It might
not be entirely out of the question that pre-frontal destabilization
ahead of this convection through midday could support intensification,
along with some developing severe weather potential as activity
spreads into/across Georgia and South Carolina coastal areas.
However, the signal for this within the various model output remains
rather weak, and severe probabilities are being maintained at less
than 5 percent.
Otherwise, the sea breeze might become a focus for strong thunderstorm
development near the Florida Atlantic coast late Monday afternoon and
evening, mainly south of Vero Beach. It is possible that the
environment could support an isolated supercell or two, but due to the
limited and uncertain nature of this threat, severe probabilities are
also being maintained at less than 5 percent for this area as well.
..Kerr.. 04/16/2022
Read more
Sat, 16 Apr 2022 07:01:05 +0000
SPC Apr 16, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331
AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models indicate that mid/upper flow probably will become
more amplified across the southern mid-latitudes of North America late
next week into next weekend. It still appears that this will include
the development of large-scale troughing inland of the California
coast through the southern Great Basin and Rockies, with downstream
ridging becoming prominent east of the Mississippi Valley. However,
shorter wavelength developments are rather varied particularly toward
the latter couple days of this period.
Deepening lee surface troughing across the Great Plains into portions
of the Upper Midwest will provide a focus for low-level moisture
return. However, this may remain seasonably modest, as persistent
weak mid/upper troughing across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and
Caribbean, and surface ridging across the Southeast and much of the
Gulf of Mexico, preclude deep boundary-layer moistening.
While the general pattern does favor increasing convective potential
east of the southern Rockies through much of the Great Plains into
Upper Midwest, current model output suggests that any appreciable
severe weather potential may remain fairly isolated through this
period.
Read more
Sat, 16 Apr 2022 08:33:56 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158
AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO...
...Synopsis...
A midlevel trough and accompanying strong/deep west-southwesterly flow
will advance eastward across the Southwest today, while surface low
pressure develops across the Great Basin.
...Southwest into the Central and Southern Rockies...
Ahead of the approaching midlevel trough, deep boundary-layer mixing
will result in widespread minimum RH of 10-15 percent this afternoon.
At the same time, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds of 20-25 mph
(with higher gusts) will overspread modestly receptive fuels. The best
overlap of strong surface winds and critically low RH is expected over
parts of New Mexico into south-central Colorado, where Critical
highlights are in place. Very dry and breezy conditions are also
expected over Arizona, though fuels are not as receptive to
wildfire-spread at this time.
..Weinman.. 04/16/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Sat, 16 Apr 2022 06:59:27 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159
AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...Synopsis...
A belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the Rockies,
resulting in surface lee troughing and dry boundary-layer conditions
over the High Plains. Late in the period, a cold front will sweep
southward across the central High Plains, with breezy northerly
surface winds persisting in its wake.
...Central and Southern High Plains...
Downslope warming/drying accompanying the enhanced midlevel westerly
flow will result in 20-25 percent minimum RH over the central High
Plains, where strong west-northwesterly surface winds of 20-25 mph
will be possible. The combination of dry/windy conditions and
critically dry fuels will support high-end elevated conditions. If
guidance trends any lower with RH across this region, Critical
highlights could be needed. Farther south, a drier airmass
characterized by 10-15 percent minimum RH will develop. However,
current indications are that breezy surface winds of 15-20 mph will
generally be brief in duration.
..Weinman.. 04/16/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Sat, 16 Apr 2022 07:01:26 +0000
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