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LU9DCE > ALERT 17.04.22 19:00z 354 Lines 16830 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5804_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 17-ABR.22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<N9PMO<VE3UIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 220417/1831Z 5804@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Sun, 17 Apr 2022
08:55:02 +0000 Sun, 17 Apr 2022 08:55:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Sun Apr 17 08:55:02 UTC 2022 No
watches are valid as of Sun Apr 17 08:55:02 UTC 2022. Sun, 17
Apr 2022 08:54:06 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sun Apr 17 08:55:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Apr 17
08:55:02 UTC 2022. Sun, 17 Apr 2022 08:54:05 +0000
SPC Apr 17, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM
CDT Sun Apr 17 2022
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOUISIANA
VICINITY EASTWARD TO SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/severe storms, possibly evolving into an organized
cluster, may produce large hail and damaging wind gusts, and possibly
a tornado or two, across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley/central
Gulf Coast vicinity Sunday afternoon and evening.
...Synopsis...
As an upper low/trough gradually departs the Northeast, a
lower-amplitude short-wave trough is forecast cross the central U.S.
on Sunday. Meanwhile, weak ridging is forecast to gradually expand
across the West.
At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the
southeastern quarter of the country early, but will begin moving back
northward as a warm front during the day as a weak frontal low
develops over the Louisiana vicinity. This low will move eastward
across the central Gulf Coast States through the afternoon and
evening, in tandem with the advance of the aforementioned upper
short-wave trough, reaching the southern Appalachians region
overnight.
...Sabine River Valley eastward to the Southeast...
Elevated convection is forecast to be ongoing at the start of the
period -- particularly from Arkansas eastward to western Tennessee and
northern Mississippi -- within a zone of warm advection north of the
surface cold front. This convection will spread eastward into the
Southeast with time, though likely remaining slightly elevated north
of the eventually retreating front. Still, potential for hail
approaching severe levels, and a few strong wind gusts, may accompany
a few of the stronger storms.
Meanwhile, a weak frontal wave should evolve through midday over the
northwestern Louisiana vicinity. Diurnal heating of a moist (low 70s
dewpoints) warm-sector boundary layer, beneath steep mid-level lapse
rates being advected eastward atop the region, will yield 1500 to 2500
J/kg mixed-layer CAPE by early afternoon, from roughly the Sabine
River Valley eastward to the central Gulf Coast region. As
large-scale ascent gradually increases ahead of the approaching
short-wave trough, expect convective development to occur by early
afternoon -- initially near the evolving frontal wave. Given the
degree of CAPE expected, and flow gradually veering/increasing from
southwesterly at 10 to 15 kt in the boundary layer to around 50 kt at
mid levels resulting in shear favorable for updraft rotation, expect
at least a few supercells to evolve. Along with potential for
damaging winds locally, very large hail is expected, and possibly a
tornado or two through the afternoon.
With time, new updraft development is expected eastward along the
surface front. A few of the developing storms will likely become
supercells, with attendant/all-hazard severe risk. Meanwhile, the
Louisiana storms may gradually organize upscale into a cluster,
shifting east-southeastward with time, into the central Gulf Coast
region by the evening with some resulting increase in damaging wind
potential.
...Portions of southern Texas...
Several CAM runs continue to indicate isolated storm development along
the cold front trailing southwestward from the Louisiana surface wave
during the afternoon, as the cap is breached locally allowing updrafts
to utilize evolving/moderate instability. Development appears most
likely from southwest of the Hill Country, southwestward to the
mountains just to the Mexican side of the international border. With
mid-level west-northwesterlies in the 35 to 40 kt range supporting
organization/rotation, large hail will be possible. Isolated
development should continue through the afternoon, followed by a
gradual decrease into the evening and associated onset of diurnal
boundary-layer cooling.
..Goss/Weinman.. 04/17/2022
Read more
Sun, 17 Apr 2022 06:03:05 +0000
SPC Apr 17, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM
CDT Sat Apr 16 2022
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
Southeast Monday, perhaps accompanied by some risk for severe weather.
...Synopsis...
Within the mid-latitude westerlies, models continue to indicate that
large-scale mid-level troughing and downstream ridging will progress
eastward, across the Pacific coast and through the Great Plains
during this period. It appears that there may be some loss of
amplitude within this regime, while downstream flow becomes more
amplified east of the Mississippi Valley through the western Atlantic.
This is forecast to include the continuing evolution of a rather
significant negatively tilted trough, to the east of the ridging,
southeast of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region through the
upper Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic Coast by 12Z Tuesday.
A preceding perturbation in lower latitudes may undergo further
deformation while progressing across the southern/middle Atlantic
Coast states and offshore by Monday evening. However, it appears that
associated forcing may contribute to another developing surface wave
along a frontal zone across Georgia through the Carolinas. As forcing
for ascent associated with the amplifying upstream trough increases,
stronger cyclogenesis is forecast to proceed, from near southern Mid
Atlantic coastal areas northward toward Long Island and southern New
England late Monday through Monday night.
...Southeast...
Remnants of vigorous thunderstorm activity from late Sunday/Sunday
night may be ongoing at 12Z Monday across parts of southern Georgia
and northern Florida. Although large-scale forcing for ascent likely
will be in the process of weakening across this region, models suggest
that insolation may contribute to mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 1000
J/kg within the moist pre-frontal boundary-layer through early
afternoon. Embedded within modest southwesterly to westerly flow in
the 850-500 mb layer (30-40+ kt), there appears at least some
potential for a few storms to re-intensify while spreading into and
across northern Florida/Georgia and southern South Carolina coastal
areas, accompanied by a risk for locally strong gusts and hail.
Various model output also continues to indicate that the Atlantic
coast sea breeze may become a focus for isolated to widely scattered
strong thunderstorm development late Monday afternoon and evening,
mainly south of the Vero Beach vicinity. A seasonably moist
boundary-layer may support CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, in the
presence of generally weak deep-layer mean flow and shear. But
relatively cool mid-level temperatures may contribute to thermodynamic
profiles conducive to a risk for marginally severe hail and locally
strong wind gusts.
Farther north, severe weather potential across parts of eastern North
Carolina still appears largely conditional. However, it might not be
out of the question that a destabilizing and increasingly sheared warm
sector of a deepening surface low could spread inland of coastal areas
late Monday afternoon or evening, accompanied by some risk for
supercell development.
..Kerr.. 04/17/2022
Read more
Sun, 17 Apr 2022 06:04:48 +0000
SPC Apr 17, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM
CDT Sun Apr 17 2022
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk of severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible across
the U.S., Tuesday through Tuesday night.
...Discussion...
Models indicate that short waves within the main branch of westerlies
emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific will remain generally
progressive through this period. This includes one amplified
mid-level trough, which is forecast to migrate from the lower Great
Lakes/Mid Atlantic region northeastward toward the Canadian Maritimes
through Tuesday night. Forcing for ascent downstream of this feature
appears likely to support further deepening of a surface cyclone from
southeastern New England coastal areas into the lower St. Lawrence
Valley, with a trailing cold front advancing away from the Atlantic
Seaboard.
While the primary mid/upper perturbation slowly progresses out of the
Northeast, models indicate that mid/upper troughing will be maintained
or perhaps continue to dig in a separate branch, across the Bahamas
and Caribbean, with substantive lower/mid tropospheric cooling and
drying in its wake as far south as the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Upstream, a trailing short wave trough, migrating inland in advance of
a much more prominent digging trough across the eastern Pacific, is
forecast to progress into and across the northern Rockies by late
Tuesday night. Destabilization aided by insolation beneath its
mid-level cold pool (including 500 mb temps below -30C) may contribute
to convection capable of producing lightning across parts of the
Pacific Northwest into northern Rockies. Additionally, mid/upper
forcing for ascent is forecast to support surface cyclogenesis to the
lee of the Canadian Rockies, across southern portions of Alberta into
Saskatchewan. Models suggest that a lower amplitude mid-level wave to
the south may also support surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the
Front Range of the Rockies.
Strengthening southerly low-level flow, to the east of deepening lee
surface troughing across much of the higher plains, may contribute to
an influx of low-level Gulf moisture currently banked up to the Sierra
Madre Oriental of Mexico. However, this likely will occur beneath a
plume of east-northeastward advecting, warm and increasingly capping
elevated mixed-layer air. While this will tend to inhibit an
appreciable risk for boundary-layer based storms through this period,
moisture return and lift based within lower/mid tropospheric warm
advection may support scattered weak thunderstorm activity near the
eastern and northern periphery of this plume.
..Kerr.. 04/17/2022
Read more
Sun, 17 Apr 2022 07:20:01 +0000
SPC Apr 17, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352
AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model output continues to generally indicate increasing
convective potential across the Great Plains into portions of the
Mississippi Valley as early as mid week. However, any appreciable
severe weather threat still seems likely to remain rather isolated
into at least the latter portion of the coming work week or next
weekend, as large-scale mid-level troughing digs into and through the
southern mid-latitudes of the western United States. This may provide
support for strong surface cyclogenesis across the central Great
Plains into Upper Midwest, which could contribute to the evolution of
an environment increasingly conducive to widespread organized severe
thunderstorm development.
There are still lingering indications that Gulf moisture return to the
warm sector may be less than optimal. Perhaps more significantly,
models remain quite varied concerning embedded shorter wavelength
developments. Latest model runs, in general, are more progressive
with the larger-scale mid-level troughing than 24 hours ago, but the
ECMWF and ECENS remain substantively slower than the GFS/GEFS. For
example, while guidance seems to point at next Saturday as the period
with most widespread severe weather potential, the ECMWF/ECENS
suggests that this may largely occur across the central Great Plains,
while the GFS/GEFS indicate that this may be focused across the middle
Mississippi Valley. Given these uncertainties (not to mention the
days 6-8 time frame), severe thunderstorm probabilities at any one
location still appear less than 15 percent at this time.
Read more
Sun, 17 Apr 2022 08:54:57 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159
AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN CO AND NM...
...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude midlevel trough and accompanying strong
west-northwesterly flow will overspread the northern and central
Rockies, resulting in a deepening lee trough over the High Plains. At
the surface, low pressure will lift northeastward from western SD into
the Upper MS Valley, while an attendant cold front sweeps southward
across the central and southern High Plains.
...Central High Plains and southward along the lee of the Rockies in
CO and NM... As the core of the strong/deep west-northwesterly flow
impinges on the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains, diurnal
heating will allow for the strong flow aloft to mix down to the
surface. 20-30 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with
higher gusts) are expected from eastern WY into western NE and
northeastern CO behind the southward-advancing cold front. Here, a
relatively cool airmass could limit RH reductions to an extent,
however, the strong/gusty surface winds and very dry fuels will still
result in critical fire-weather conditions. Along the lee of the
Rockies from central CO into NM, downslope flow amid a warmer/drier
antecedent airmass will favor 10-15 percent minimum RH with 20-25 mph
sustained west-northwesterly surface winds.
...Mid-Atlantic...
A dry post-frontal airmass will be in place across much of the
Mid-Atlantic (minimum RH of 20-30 percent), however, generally light
surface winds are expected where the lowest RH will develop.
..Weinman.. 04/17/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Sun, 17 Apr 2022 07:01:26 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159
AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...Synopsis...
A large-scale ridge will build over the western CONUS, while modest
westerly midlevel flow persists over the Southwest. Farther east, a
strong midlevel trough will track eastward across the Middle MS
Valley, while breezy northwesterly surface winds develop across the
Middle MO Valley in its wake.
...Southwest into south-central CO...
Modest downslope flow will result in widespread 5-15 percent RH during
the afternoon, where sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will
approach 15 mph. The lack of a tighter surface pressure gradient and
modest midlevel flow should mitigate a higher-end fire-weather threat,
though elevated conditions are still expected.
...Middle MO Valley...
Sustained northwesterly surface winds near 15-25 mph will develop amid
20-25 percent RH during peak heating. While these conditions will be
near-critical, light rainfall across the region casts uncertainty on
the overall fire-weather threat. With that said, the dry/breezy
conditions combined with dry fuels should support at least elevated
conditions.
..Weinman.. 04/17/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Sun, 17 Apr 2022 07:02:13 +0000
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