| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 18.04.22 19:00z 378 Lines 18319 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5837_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 18-ABR.22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<N9PMO<VE3UIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 220418/1830Z 5837@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 - Eduardo A. Castillo
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Mon, 18 Apr 2022
08:58:01 +0000 Mon, 18 Apr 2022 08:58:01 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Apr 18 08:58:01 UTC 2022 No
watches are valid as of Mon Apr 18 08:58:01 UTC 2022. Mon, 18
Apr 2022 08:57:06 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Mon Apr 18 08:58:01 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Apr 18
08:58:01 UTC 2022. Mon, 18 Apr 2022 08:57:05 +0000
SPC Apr 18, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM
CDT Mon Apr 18 2022
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong thunderstorms are possible today across the
eastern Carolinas and also parts of southeastern Florida, perhaps
accompanied by some risk for severe weather.
...Synopsis...
An initially low-amplitude, negatively tilted upper trough will
continue moving across the central and southeastern U.S. today. While
the southern portion of the trough gradually shifts into the western
Atlantic, a closed low will gradually evolve farther north, with the
cyclone moving into the lower Great Lakes overnight. Meanwhile, a
second low will shift into/across the Pacific Northwest and adjacent
western Canada. In between, ridging will gradually advance eastward
across the Intermountain West and into the Plains.
At the surface, a western cold front will shift inland across the
Pacific Northwest and eventually reach the Great Basin, while a second
front crosses the Southeast through the day. As the front moves
offshore, a surface low is progged to deepen rapidly through the
second half of the period, shifting northward across the Mid-Atlantic
region and into the Hudson Valley vicinity by the end of the period.
...Coastal Carolinas...
Though the bulk of the stronger convection will likely remain offshore
over the Gulf Stream, a minimally unstable but kinematically favorable
environment is forecast across the coastal Carolinas during the day.
Southeasterly low-level flow ahead of the advancing cold front will
veer/increase with height, resulting in shear sufficient for both
mid-level and low-level updraft rotation. As such, will maintain MRGL
categorical severe risk over coastal North Carolina, and will expand
the area southward across coastal South Carolina, to cover a
low-probability risk for a strong wind gust or brief tornado. Any
such risk will end during the early evening as the cold front moves
offshore.
...Southeastern Florida...
As weak upper vort max shifts across central/southern Florida during
the afternoon, scattered storm development is expected -- particularly
near the east coast sea-breeze boundary. As the moist low-level
airmass diurnally heats in the vicinity of the boundary, CAPE values
in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range will support vigorous updrafts. While
modest shear in the 0-6km layer will limit severe potential, one or
two of the stronger storms may become briefly capable of producing
severe-caliber hail and/or wind gusts. Risk will diminish into the
evening as storms weaken/shift offshore.
..Goss/Weinman.. 04/18/2022
Read more
Mon, 18 Apr 2022 06:05:00 +0000
SPC Apr 18, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM
CDT Sun Apr 17 2022
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
WESTERN TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of southeastern New Mexico and
west Texas late Tuesday afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least
some risk for large hail and locally strong wind gusts.
...Synopsis...
Within the primary branch of westerlies emanating from the
mid-latitude Pacific, short waves are forecast to remain progressive
across the U.S. through this period, downstream of gradually
amplifying large-scale troughing over the eastern Pacific. The most
significant trough appears likely to slowly accelerate northeast of
the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley/Mid Atlantic region toward the
Canadian Maritimes. It appears that this will be accompanied by a
fairly deep, occluding surface cyclone migrating across southern New
England through the lower St. Lawrence Valley, with a trailing cold
front advancing offshore and away from the Atlantic Seaboard. Further
lower/mid tropospheric drying is expected as far south as southern
Florida and the Keys, and the northeastern through central Gulf of
Mexico, in the wake of lingering weak mid/upper troughing in a
separate branch of westerlies across the Bahamas and Caribbean.
The most prominent trailing trough is forecast to progress inland of
the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast, across and east of the
Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies by late Tuesday night. A lower
amplitude perturbation may accelerate eastward to its south, across
the Great Basin and southern Rockies. This likely will be accompanied
by deepening surface troughing through much of the Great Plains, with
developing cyclones east of the Canadian Rockies and to the lee of the
Front Range. As this occurs, and southerly low-level flow strengthens
to the east of the surface trough axis, low-level moisture currently
banked up against the Sierra Madre Oriental of Mexico will begin
advecting northward. This may include surface dew points increasing
through the lower/mid 60s across the lower Rio Grande Valley, Texas
Edwards Plateau and South Plains by late Tuesday night, with moisture
return elevated above a residual stable near-surface layer into areas
of the Great Plains to the north and east. However, this will also
largely coincide with the northeastward advection of a plume of warm
and capping elevated mixed-layer air.
...Great Plains...
At least low probabilities for thunderstorms appear likely to develop
across a rather broad area east of the Rockies Tuesday through Tuesday
night. It appears that this will mostly be associated with moisture
return and large-scale ascent in advance of, and above, the
northeastward advecting elevated mixed-layer air.
Shear, and instability due to steep lapse rates, within this layer
might become sufficient for some hail in widely scattered stronger
storms, but this is expected to remain generally below severe limits.
Additional widely scattered to scattered high-based thunderstorm
development is expected late Tuesday afternoon and evening along the
sharpening dryline across the high plains, from near the mountains of
southwest Texas into the Black Hills vicinity. Where boundary-layer
moistening may support modest mixed-layer CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, from
parts of the Pecos Valley northward through the eastern New
Mexico/west Texas border vicinity, it appears that strong deep-layer
shear could become supportive of a couple of supercells.
...Pacific Northwest into northern Rockies...
Beneath cold mid-level air (including 500 mb temps below -30C)
associated with the inland migrating short wave trough, insolation may
contribute to weak destabilization supportive of low topped convection
capable of producing lightning Tuesday. Stronger cells probably will
remain well below severe limits, but may be accompanied by graupel and
gusty winds.
..Kerr.. 04/18/2022
Read more
Mon, 18 Apr 2022 06:06:44 +0000
SPC Apr 18, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM
CDT Mon Apr 18 2022
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS...SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA....NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...AS WELL AS PARTS OF WESTERN OREGON...
...SUMMARY...
A couple of supercells are possible late Wednesday afternoon and
evening, near or east of the Interstate 35 corridor between Kansas
City and the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. A few storms may also
impact areas west of the Oregon Cascades, accompanied by at least some
risk for severe weather.
...Synopsis...
Models indicate little change to the general large-scale pattern
impacting North America through this period, with short waves
remaining progressive within the main belt of westerlies emanating
from the mid-latitude Pacific. This includes one major, and still
amplifying, large-scale trough across the eastern Pacific, which
appears likely to begin advancing inland across the Pacific coast.
Downstream, a significant lead short wave trough is forecast to
migrate across and northeast of the Canadian Maritimes, accompanied by
a relatively deep, occluded surface cyclone. In its wake, cold/dry
surface ridging will maintain considerable influence across much of
the Atlantic seaboard through the northeastern and central Gulf of
Mexico.
The most prominent trailing perturbation across interior North America
is likely to dig within an increasing confluent regime east-southeast
of the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity toward the upper Great
Lakes. Models indicate little further deepening of the primary
associated surface cyclone, and it may tend to weaken while migrating
from southern Saskatchewan into Ontario. A trailing cold front
appears likely to advance southward through the Upper Midwest and
northern Great Plains by late Wednesday night, preceded by a surge of
cooler air east-southeast of the northern and central Great Plains
into the lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Ozark Plateau.
Modest pre-frontal low-level moistening may continue from near the
Mexican Gulf coast northward through the southeastern Great Plains and
middle Mississippi Valley, mostly beneath a plume of warm and capping
elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the southern Rockies/Mexican
Plateau vicinity. This warm mid-level air might become suppressed
across parts of the central Great Plains, before returning
northeastward again in the wake of the short wave trough passing to
the north.
...I-35 corridor from Kansas City to Dallas-Fort Worth...
In the wake of fairly widespread convection and embedded thunderstorms
driven by elevated moisture return within a lower/mid tropospheric
warm advection regime, models indicate that a narrow corridor of
modest boundary-layer based instability may develop along the trailing
cold front and dryline by late Wednesday afternoon. Mid/upper support
for convective initiation remains unclear, and guidance generally
suggests that renewed thunderstorm development might be widely
scattered to isolated. However, although strong low-level wind fields
may be in the process of shifting east of the region, the environment
probably will be conducive to supercells in the presence of strong
deep-layer shear, accompanied by at least the potential to produce
large hail and locally strong wind gusts.
The cold front/dryline intersection would seem one possible focus for
convective initiation, but considerable spread exists within model
output on where this will end up. And the influence of possible
lingering outflow from the preceding elevated convection is an added
uncertainty. Once these are cleared up, it possible severe
thunderstorm probabilities could still be increased for this period.
...Pacific Northwest...
Models suggest that the weakly unstable warm sector, of a broad and
deep occluded surface cyclone centered over the northeastern Pacific,
may spread inland to the west of the Oregon Cascades during the day
Wednesday. It appears that this will coincide with mid-level cooling
and lift within the exit region of 90+ kt 500 mb jet nosing onshore,
and enlarging, clockwise curved low-level hodographs near a 40-50+ kt
southerly 850 mb jet. And it might not be out of the question that
the environment could become conducive to low-topped supercells with
the potential to produce a tornado, locally strong wind gusts and/or
small hail.
..Kerr.. 04/18/2022
Read more
Mon, 18 Apr 2022 07:26:00 +0000
SPC Apr 18, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354
AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2022
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models continue to indicate that a major mid/upper trough
evolving within the westerlies over the eastern mid-latitude Pacific
will develop inland of the Pacific coast through much of the interior
of North America late this week through early next week. Latest model
runs appear even more progressive than those of 24 hours ago, but the
ECMWF and ECENS continue to lag the GFS/GEFS and embedded shorter
wavelength developments remain quite varied. Boundary-layer moisture
return off the Gulf of Mexico may never become particularly broad and
deep, but steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates could compensate
across the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley.
There does appear to be at least a growing consensus that one emerging
short wave impulse will contribute to strong surface cyclogenesis from
the lee of the Front Range northeastward toward the eastern Dakotas
Friday through Friday night. It appears that this may be accompanied
by intensifying southwesterly mid/upper flow, and the evolution of
large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs within a destabilizing
warm sector. This could support a clustering of supercell development
along a warm frontal zone near/north of the mid Missouri Valley, as
well as southward along a sharpening dryline through the central Great
Plains by early Friday evening.
Subsequent developments remain more unclear, but the evolution of an
upscale growing and organizing convective system might not be out of
the question northeast of the mid Missouri Valley toward the Upper
Midwest later Friday night. The impacts of this activity and
associated outflow on renewed convective development Saturday only
adds to the uncertainties concerning further severe weather potential
next weekend.
Read more
Mon, 18 Apr 2022 08:57:54 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159
AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2022
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...Synopsis...
A large-scale ridge will be situated over the western CONUS, while a
midlevel trough moves eastward across the Upper MS Valley and Great
Lakes region. At the surface, high pressure will encompass most of the
Great Plains, with a tight surface pressure gradient along its eastern
and western peripheries.
...Southwest into the south-central Rockies and High Plains...
Over the Southwest, diurnal heating/mixing will yield 5-15 percent RH
by the afternoon. At the same time, enhanced midlevel flow will mix
down to the surface, resulting in 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface
winds. For the south-central Rockies and adjacent High Plains,
downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will allow for 15-20
percent RH by peak heating. Here, sustained southerly surface winds of
15-20 mph will develop in response to the tightening surface pressure
gradient. These meteorological conditions combined with modestly
receptive fuels will support elevated to spotty critical conditions.
...Middle MO Valley...
Deep/strong northwesterly flow on the backside of the
eastward-advancing midlevel trough will overspread the MO Valley --
where a tight surface pressure gradient will be in place. This will
result in 15-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 25-30
percent RH. While the marginal RH reductions cast uncertainty on the
overall fire-weather risk, the strong/gusty winds atop very dry fuels
(ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile) should generally compensate for
this.
..Weinman.. 04/18/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Mon, 18 Apr 2022 07:00:26 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202
AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2022
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF FAR EASTERN ARIZONA...NEW
MEXICO...AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...
...Synopsis...
Enhanced midlevel westerly flow will impinge on the central and
southern Rockies on Tuesday, resulting in a deepening lee trough over
the High Plains.
...Southwest into the south-central Rockies and High Plains...
Downslope warming/drying combined with diurnal heating will result in
widespread 10-15 percent RH across the Southwest into the
south-central Rockies and High Plains. Here, a tight surface pressure
gradient along the southern periphery of the lee troughing will favor
widespread 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds. These
conditions, combined with increasingly dry fuels, will support
enhanced fire-weather conditions. While critical meteorological
conditions will be possible into Arizona, fuels are generally not as
receptive to wildfire spread.
...Southern Florida...
Diurnal heating of a dry post-frontal airmass could result in minimum
RH of 20-30 percent over inland areas. However, recent rainfall and
generally light surface winds should mitigate the fire-weather threat.
..Weinman.. 04/18/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Mon, 18 Apr 2022 07:03:27 +0000
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
FREEBSD - BBS - PACKET
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
