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LU9DCE > ALERT 19.04.22 19:00z 410 Lines 19419 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 19-ABR.22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 220419/1830Z 5876@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Tue, 19 Apr 2022
08:59:01 +0000 Tue, 19 Apr 2022 08:59:01 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue Apr 19 08:59:01 UTC 2022 No
watches are valid as of Tue Apr 19 08:59:01 UTC 2022. Tue, 19
Apr 2022 08:58:05 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Tue Apr 19 08:59:01 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Apr 19
08:59:01 UTC 2022. Tue, 19 Apr 2022 08:58:04 +0000
SPC Apr 19, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM
CDT Tue Apr 19 2022
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered/elevated storms are likely to evolve this afternoon across
portions of the Texas Panhandle and South Plains. One or two of the
stronger storms could produce marginally severe hail.
...Synopsis...
As a negatively tilted mid-level trough crosses the Northeast/New
England during the period, the overall flow field across the remainder
of the U.S. will gradually deamplify. By the end of the period,
quasi-zonal flow field will have evolved across roughly the southern
half of the country.
At the surface, a cold front trailing from an occluding New England
low will already have shifted off the middle and southern Atlantic
coasts by the start of the period. In its wake, high pressure will
prevail across the remainder of the eastern half of the country.
In the West, a cold front will cross the Intermountain region, in
conjunction with an upper system moving across the Northwest.
Eventually, the front will overtake a High Plains lee trough, with the
conglomerate boundary to shift into the Great Plains region through
the end of the period.
...Texas Panhandle and South Plains...
As a subtle short-wave trough shifts out of New Mexico into the
southern High Plains region by early afternoon, elevated showers and
thunderstorms will gradually develop, aided by moderate CAPE above
roughly 700 mb. With amply strong cloud-layer shear, a few updrafts
may strengthen/organize sufficiently to permit a few instances of
severe-caliber hail across portions of the Texas Panhandle and South
Plains regions. Eventually, the convection should outrun the steeper
lapse-rate environment, resulting in diminished hail potential
eastward into Oklahoma/North Texas.
..Goss/Weinman.. 04/19/2022
Read more
Tue, 19 Apr 2022 05:42:02 +0000
SPC Apr 19, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2022
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS...SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEASTERN INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...
CORRECTED GRAPHIC ISSUE AND TYPO IN TEXT HEADER
...SUMMARY...
A few supercells are possible late Wednesday afternoon and evening,
near or east of the Interstate 35 corridor between Kansas City and the
Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. A few strong storms may also impact
areas west of the Oregon Cascades, accompanied by at least some risk
for severe weather.
...Synopsis...
Models indicate little change to the general large-scale pattern
impacting much of North America through this period. Short waves
within a primary belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude
Pacific appear likely to remain progressive, but this regime may take
on more a southwesterly component inland of the Pacific coast through
the northern Atlantic Seaboard, as a large and still amplifying trough
digs offshore of the Pacific coast.
Downstream of this feature, mid-level heights may begin to rise across
much of the western through eastern Gulf Coast states by Wednesday
night. However, the most prominent mid-level height rises are
forecast across and to the lee of the Canadian/U.S. Rockies. To the
east of the building ridging, a lower amplitude trough is forecast to
dig within an increasingly confluent regime east-southeast of the
central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity toward the upper Great Lakes.
This will occur fairly close behind a more prominent trough migrating
across and northeast of the Canadian Maritimes, accompanied by an
initially broad occluded surface cyclone.
In the wake of the lead impulse, potentially cold/dry surface ridging
is forecast to initially be entrenched across most areas east of the
Mississippi Valley at 12Z Wednesday. This ridging likely will build
through New England while being maintained across much of the Atlantic
Seaboard into the northeastern and central Gulf of Mexico through the
remainder of the period. At the same time, an initial cold front
associated with the upstream mid-level trough is forecast to advance
southeast of the northern/central Great Plains, while another front,
trailing the primary lingering surface cyclone migrating from southern
Saskatchewan into Ontario, advances south of the international border.
Ahead of the lead front, modest low-level moistening appears likely to
continue within southerly return flow around the southwestern
periphery of the Eastern ridging, from near the Mexican Gulf coast
northward through the southeastern Great Plains and middle Mississippi
Valley. This is expected to mostly occur beneath a plume of warm and
capping elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the southern
Rockies/Mexican Plateau vicinity. However, models continue to suggest
that this warm mid-level air become suppressed across parts of the
central Great Plains, before returning northward again in the wake of
the mid-level troughing passing to the north and northeast.
...I-35 corridor from Kansas City to Dallas-Fort Worth...
Precipitation associated with convection and embedded thunderstorms,
driven by elevated moisture return within an eastward spreading
lower/mid tropospheric warm advection regime, may reinforce
cool/stable boundary-layer conditions across much of the Mississippi
Valley, in advance of the lead surface cold front. However, on the
western periphery of this air mass, beneath the plume of initially
capping elevated mixed-layer air, models continue to indicate that a
corridor of stronger pre-frontal heating may contribute to a narrow
zone of boundary-layer destabilization. Aided by surface dew point
increases through the lower/mid 60s F, mixed-layer CAPE on the order
of 1000-2000 J/kg appears possible, in the presence of at least
moderately strong deep-layer shear. Located near/southeast of the
I-35 corridor by peak late afternoon heating, this may provide support
for the development of a few supercells.
A clustering of storms may eventually evolve near the intersection of
the cold front/dryline and remnant differential heating zone by
Wednesday evening, probably somewhere across northeastern Oklahoma,
before tending to shift north-northeastward as mid-level heights tend
to rise across the southern Great Plains Wednesday night.
...Pacific Northwest...
It still appears that at least a narrow warm sector, of a broad and
deep occluded cyclone centered over the northeastern Pacific, may
spread inland to the west of the Oregon Cascades early Wednesday.
This is when wind profiles including large clockwise-curved low-level
hodographs and strong deep-layer shear will be most conducive to
low-topped supercells with the potential to produce a tornado.
However, latest model output appears more unclear concerning potential
for even weak boundary-layer CAPE within this regime. It seems more
probable that appreciable boundary-layer destabilization might await
the inland advance of the post-frontal mid-level cold pool later
Wednesday. However, deep-layer shear may remain strong, and the
thermodynamic profiles may still become conducive to small to
marginally severe hail and gusty winds in widely scattered to
scattered thunderstorm activity.
..Kerr.. 04/19/2022
Read more
Tue, 19 Apr 2022 07:30:46 +0000
SPC Apr 19, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM
CDT Tue Apr 19 2022
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated supercell development is possible across parts of
northwestern Oklahoma into south central Kansas late Thursday
afternoon and evening, with additional strong thunderstorms posing at
least some risk for severe hail northeastward into parts of the lower
Missouri Valley overnight.
...Synopsis...
Latest model output indicates that the large-scale mid/upper
troughing, evolving within the mid-latitude westerlies in prior days
over the eastern Pacific, will begin to progress inland of the Pacific
coast during this period. One significant embedded short trough is
generally forecast to pivot within the base of the larger scale
troughing, across the southern California coast into the lower
Colorado Valley by late Thursday night.
Downstream, a mid-level high may attempt to evolve across the eastern
Gulf States vicinity, with broad mid-level ridging building along an
axis to its northwest, from the lower Mississippi Valley toward
eastern portions of the Canadian Prairies. Mid-level troughing to the
east of the ridge is forecast to dig through the upper Great Lakes
region, before turning eastward toward Quebec and the Northeast.
In response to the progression of the eastern short wave trough, a
couple of cold fronts may begin to consolidate, with the southern/lead
boundary advancing across the northern Mid Atlantic coast by 12Z
Friday, while its western flank shifts back northward through the
central Great Plains/middle Mississippi Valley vicinity.
Surface ridging, with potentially cool/dry air, will remain an
influence across much of the Southeast and northeastern into central
Gulf of Mexico. However, southerly return flow around its
southwestern periphery may continue to gradually moisten from parts of
the western Gulf into Sierra Madre Oriental northward toward the
higher southern into central Great Plains and mid/lower Missouri
Valley.
...Central Great Plains and adjacent Missouri Valley vicinity...
The dryline across the higher plains of west Texas into western
Oklahoma and southwest Kansas could become a focus for moderate
boundary-layer destabilization late Thursday afternoon. However, with
the dryline likely to be in the process of retreating to deepening lee
surface troughing, sustained vigorous thunderstorm development seems
unlikely, particularly beneath strengthening mid-level inhibition.
One plausible exception may be where low-level convergence becomes
enhanced near the intersection of the dryline and developing surface
warm frontal zone across northwestern Oklahoma or adjacent southern
Kansas. This may be aided by a strengthening southerly low-level jet
by early Thursday evening, which will contribute to an environment
increasingly conducive for the evolution of supercells.
If one or two storms are able to initiate and be maintained, they may
pose a risk for producing large hail and perhaps tornadoes. Aided by
forcing near the strengthening low-level jet axis, this activity may
persist into the evening, shifting north of the warm front. As this
occurs, large hail will become the primary hazard as storms spread
north-northeastward toward the lower Missouri Valley and perhaps
increase in coverage through around 05-07Z Thursday night.
..Kerr.. 04/19/2022
Read more
Tue, 19 Apr 2022 07:24:08 +0000
SPC Apr 19, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356
AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2022
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models continue to indicate that large-scale mid/upper
troughing within the mid-latitude westerlies, with perhaps at least a
couple of significant embedded short wave perturbations, will continue
inland of the Pacific coast through much of central and eastern North
America by early next week. It appears increasingly probable that one
vigorous lead short wave trough will accelerate northeastward out of
the Southwest on Friday, and support strong surface cyclogenesis from
the lee of the Front Range through the eastern Dakotas by 12Z
Saturday. The cyclone may then occlude and slowly migrate north of
the international border into the southern Manitoba/Ontario border
vicinity by early Sunday.
Coinciding with and preceding this development, a lower/mid
tropospheric high may become increasingly prominent across much of the
Southeast. It appears that this will include the westward development
of initially cool/dry surface ridging toward the northwestern Gulf
coast. Various model output remains suggestive that this may
interfere with moisture return off the Gulf of Mexico, and moistening
within the warm sector of the deepening cyclone may only become
seasonably modest.
However, lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates across the Great Plains
will initially be quite steep, and this probably will compensate,
contributing to a favorable environment for the development severe
thunderstorms in the presence of strong shear. Highest severe
probabilities late Friday afternoon probably will become focused along
the sharpening dryline across the higher plains, then perhaps near the
warm front across the mid Missouri Valley Friday evening,
Increasingly widespread convection Friday night probably will tend to
stabilize lapse rates. This, coupled with the uncertain influence of
associated surface outflow, leaves severe weather potential more
uncertain for Saturday, though low-level wind fields along/ahead of
the eastward advancing front will be strong along a corridor from
eastern Kansas through eastern Minnesota near/shortly after potential
peak daytime heating.
Read more
Tue, 19 Apr 2022 08:58:56 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200
AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2022
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN WYOMING INTO FAR WESTERN
NEBRASKA...
...Synopsis...
A broad large-scale trough and enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will
overspread the western CONUS, favoring surface lee troughing over the
northern and central High Plains. Farther east, a dry post-frontal
airmass will be in place across the Southeast and Florida Peninsula.
...Southwest into the southern High Plains...
As the enhanced deep-layer westerly flow overspreads the Southwest and
southern High Plains, efficient diurnal heating/mixing of a dry
antecedent airmass will result in widespread 10-15 percent minimum RH.
These dry boundary-layer conditions, combined with sustained westerly
surface winds of 20-30 mph atop dry/receptive fuels will support
critical fire-weather conditions.
...Eastern Wyoming into far western Nebraska...
Downslope warming/drying combined with diurnal heating will yield 15
percent RH during the afternoon. At the same time, the tight surface
pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening lee trough will favor
20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds. Therefore, Critical
highlights are in place where dry fuels exist.
...Florida Peninsula...
A dry post-frontal airmass will encompass the Florida Peninsula, where
diurnal heating will result in 25-35 percent minimum RH over the
central and western portions of the peninsula. Northerly surface winds
near 10 mph are expected to overlap the critically low RH for a few
hours, warranting Elevated highlights.
...Northern Montana...
Sustained westerly surface winds near 30 mph (with higher gusts) are
expected in the lee of the higher terrain across northern Montana.
While strong downslope flow could contribute to 25 percent RH amid the
strong/gusty winds, generally unreceptive fuels should mitigate the
fire-weather risk.
..Weinman.. 04/19/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Tue, 19 Apr 2022 07:01:25 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200
AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2022
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA...
...Synopsis...
A belt of strong westerly midlevel flow will cross the northern and
central Rockies, maintaining broad surface lee troughing over the High
Plains. Farther east, a dry continental airmass will remain in place
over the southeastern CONUS.
...Southwest into the southern High Plains...
Diurnal heating/mixing of a dry airmass will result in widespread
10-15 percent minimum RH, where 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface
winds are expected. These meteorological conditions, combined with
increasingly dry fuels, will yield critical fire-weather conditions
primarily over New Mexico.
...Eastern Wyoming into western Nebraska...
Strong downslope flow combined with diurnal heating will favor 15-20
percent RH in the lee of the Rockies over eastern Wyoming into western
Nebraska. At the same time, sustained westerly surface winds of 25+
mph will overspread highly receptive fuels. Therefore, Critical
highlights are in place where the best overlap of the strong surface
winds and dry boundary-layer conditions are expected.
...Eastern Montana...
Strong west-northwesterly surface winds of 25-35 mph (with higher
gusts) will develop across parts of eastern Montana, where downsloping
could yield 25-35 percent minimum RH. While the latest guidance
suggests that fuels are not receptive to wildfire spread, trends will
need to be monitored.
...Florida Peninsula...
Breezy easterly surface winds near 15 mph are expected across the
Florida Peninsula. While uncertain, diurnal heating/mixing over the
western portions of the peninsula could result in a small corridor of
35 percent minimum RH. Confidence in the overlap of the breezy surface
winds and low RH is too low to introduce highlights at this time,
though trends will be monitored.
..Weinman.. 04/19/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Tue, 19 Apr 2022 07:02:13 +0000
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