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LU9DCE > ALERT 13.04.19 07:33z 329 Lines 17957 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 13 04
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Sent: 190413/0701Z 21318@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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WW 49 TORNADO TX 130650Z - 131400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 49 NWS
Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest and south-central Texas
* Effective this Saturday morning from 150 AM until 900 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered
large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in
diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...A gradual increase in convection has been noted across
the area in an environment conditionally favorable for supercells
and tornado potential, along and south of a warm front. The threat
should increase through early/mid morning as lift and moisture
each strengthen.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
either side of a line from 60 miles northwest of Del Rio TX to 45
miles north northeast of Hondo TX. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 48...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24030.
...Edwards
WW 48 SEVERE TSTM TX 130630Z - 131400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 48 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 AM CDT Sat Apr
13 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West-central and
southwest Texas
* Effective this Saturday morning from 130 AM until 900 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated
very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should increase in coverage and intensity
across the area through the remainder of the pre-dawn hours, as
both moisture and lift strengthen near a surface low and north of
a warm front. Hail is the main threat, though sporadic damaging
gusts may penetrate to the surface.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles southwest
of Midland TX to 15 miles north of Brownwood TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
24030.
...Edwards
WW 0049 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0049 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0048 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0048 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
MD 0313 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0313 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019
Areas affected...Northern/northeastern Texas into northern/central
Louisiana and far southern Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 130652Z - 130845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Occasional, marginally severe hail is possible with
storms across the discussion area for the next several hours.
A WW is not anticipated due to the isolated nature of the threat.
DISCUSSION...Elevated convection - including isolated supercells -
continue within a warm-advection regime across the discussion area.
These storms are in an environment characterized by steep mid-level
lapse rates (7.5-8.5 deg C/km) as observed in RAP point forecast
soundings and 06Z upper air soundings from FWD and SHV, and strong
vertical shear in the cloud-bearing layer. This regime should
persist for the next several hours as warm-advection continues well
ahead of an approaching mid-level wave and surface low located
over New Mexico and Texas respectively. 1" to 1.5" hailstones
are possible with stronger storms - especially those that exhibit
mid-level rotation. Given the isolated and marginal nature of the
threat, a WW issuance is not anticipated, although convective trends
will continue to be monitored.
..Cook.. 04/13/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
LAT...LON 31749643 32239671 32819669 33229617 33309543 33249429
33189342 33049233 32889143 32429118 31709143 31309187 31269203
31019268 30849343 30909481 31149580 31749643
MD 0312 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS
OF WEST TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0312 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019
Areas affected...portions of west Texas and the Rio Grande Valley
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 130556Z - 130800Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Convection across western and southern portions of the
discussion area should continue to strengthen, with potential for all
modes of severe. A Tornado Watch is being considered for the area.
DISCUSSION...Convection continues to deepen across eastern
Pecos/Terrell counties and just south of the Rio Grande near
Del Rio. These storms were already demonstrating supercellular
characteristics, and these trends should continue given strongly
vertically veering wind profiles, strong low-level shear (30-40
kts), and moderate surface-based instability (mid-50s to low 60s F
dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates and cooling aloft).
Point forecast soundings indicate that any remaining cap across
western/southern portions of the discussion has been mostly removed,
and with continued low-level upslope against higher terrain in
northern Mexico and lift associated with the approaching mid-level
trough in New Mexico, convection should continue to expand over
time and possibly necessitate a tornado watch across portions of
the discussion area. If issued, this watch will extend north of
the current position of the warm front (subjectively analyzed from
near 6R6 to near JCT), with the expectation that this front should
slowly migrate northward over time.
Mid-level capping is a bit more pronounced in point forecast
soundings in the eastern half of the discussion area (nearer
San Antonio). A couple of factors suggest presence of a severe
threat in these areas beyond the next 1-2 hours or so, including:
1) continued cooling aloft with approach of a mid-level wave over
New Mexico and 2) convective organization, which may overcome
the cap especially in instances of strong updraft rotation and/or
upscale convective growth. A few of the operational CAMS indicate
this potential as well. This region will also be monitored for a
potential watch.
..Cook/Edwards.. 04/13/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 30380265 30740251 31060194 31080116 30859985 30359907
29699887 29229916 29059951 28940003 28930081 29160148 29450213
29870253 30070263 30380265
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248
AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...FAR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WEST-CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...
...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms capable of producing
tornadoes, wind damage and large hail, are expected across parts
of east Texas, Louisiana, southern Arkansas, Mississippi, western
Alabama and surrounding areas today and tonight.
...East Texas/Louisiana/Southern Arkansas/Mississippi/Western
Alabama... A vigorous upper-level trough will move across the
southern Plains today as a mid-level jet rounds the base of the
system. At the surface, a low will move into the Arklatex with
a moist airmass in place to the southeast of the low across east
Texas, Louisiana and western Mississippi. Surface dewpoints in the
moist sector should be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F by late
morning. Thunderstorms should be ongoing across north-central into
northeast Texas at the start of the period. This convection with a
hail threat, is likely to move into the Arklatex by midday. Further
south across southeast Texas into Louisiana, the airmass should
become moderately unstable and remain primarily undisturbed. In
response to the approach of the upper-level trough, a low-level jet
is forecast to move into far eastern Texas and western Louisiana
during the early afternoon. Thunderstorms should initiate to the
northwest of the low-level jet on the northern edge of the stronger
instability. Strong deep-layer shear profiles will favor supercell
development. Supercells will have a potential for large hail in
the early afternoon. The more dominant storms could produce 2-inch
diameter hailstones. As the upper-level trough approaches and the
exit region of a progressive mid-level jet moves into southeast
Texas during the early afternoon, surface-based thunderstorms should
rapidly initiate and move eastward into western Louisiana.
RAP forecast soundings across the moist sector at 21Z from Monroe,
LA southward to Alexandria, LA show MLCAPE values in the 2000 to 2500
J/kg range. Deep-layer shear is forecast to steadily increase due
the approach of the mid-level jet with forecast soundings showing 0-6
km shear of 50 to 60 kt by late afternoon. This combined with strong
low-level shear will be favorable for supercells and tornadoes across
the moderate risk area. 0-3 km storm-relative helicities are forecast
to be in the 350 to 450 m2/s2 range supporting strong tornadoes with
the more dominant supercells near the axis of the low-level jet. A
potential for long-track tornadoes will be possible and a regional
outbreak of tornadoes could occur across parts of the moderate risk
area. By early evening, the cluster of severe storms is forecast
to move into southwestern and central Mississippi where a potential
for strong tornadoes will continue. However, the wind-damage threat
may become the more dominant hazard as the convection moves further
to the east where instability is forecast to be weaker.
...Northern South Carolina/Central and Eastern North Carolina/Far
Southeast Virginia... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place
across the East Coast today. At the surface, a moist airmass will
exist across the Atlantic Coastal plains where dewpoints should be
in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. As surface temperatures warm
across the moist airmass, pockets of moderate instability may
develop from northern South Carolina northeastward into eastern
North Carolina. Thunderstorms are forecast to initiate in the
foothills of the Appalachians and move eastward into the stronger
instability during the afternoon. SBCAPE values around 1000 J/kg
evident on RAP forecast soundings, along with 30 to 40 kt of 0-6
km shear should be enough for a marginal severe threat. Strong wind
gusts and hail will the primary threats.
..Broyles/Bentley.. 04/13/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259
AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms are anticipated Sunday --
centered over the mid and upper Ohio Valley, and southward across
the central and southern Appalachians region.
...Synopsis... A sharp upper trough just west of the Mississippi
Valley at the start of the period is forecast to advance steadily
eastward across the eastern third of the U.S. Sunday, reaching the
lower Great Lakes and central/southern Appalachians through the
latter stages of the period.
In conjunction with this system, a surface low expected to reside
over the Tennessee Valley vicinity early Sunday is progged to
deepen as it shifts northeastward across eastern New York through
Monday morning. Trailing southward, a well-defined cold front will
progress steadily eastward across the Mid South/Southeast, reaching
the Appalachian Crest near sunset. Continued eastward progression
of the front overnight will allow the front to reach/clear the
Atlantic Coast through the end of the period. Given the strong wind
field accompanying this system and an amply unstable environment
expected ahead of the front, widespread/substantial severe weather
risk remains evident either side of the Appalachians.
...Mid and upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians, southward
into the Southeast... A semi-continuous, roughly north-south
band of thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing at the start of
the period, extending from southeastern Indiana/southwestern Ohio
southward to the Alabama/western Florida Panhandle coasts; while
this will likely be a period of relative minimum in severe risk,
local risk for damaging winds/hail, and possibly a tornado or two,
will likely be ongoing.
As the airmass ahead of this initial band destabilizes into the
afternoon, storms are expected to reintensify. Damaging winds
and some tornado risk may spread across the middle and into
the upper Ohio Valley through the afternoon with this band of
storms. Meanwhile near and east of the southern Appalachians,
reintensification of convection in this band may become more
cellular in organization. Given favorably strong flow through the
lower and middle troposphere contributing to strong shear, this
more cellular storm mode would support risk for a few tornadoes,
along with locally damaging winds and some hail.
In the wake of this initial band of storms, modest destabilization
is expected, likely leading to development of a second band of
storms nearer the surface cold front. As this band of storms
crosses the middle Ohio Valley/Mid South region, severe risk is
anticipated, with damaging winds and tornadoes both possible given
the very strong shear residing atop the pre-frontal boundary layer.
Risk in any area will be somewhat storm-mode dependent, with a mix
of cellular and banded structures possible within the north-south
zone ahead of the front.
During the evening, as the front progresses, the convection --
and accompanying severe risk -- will spread east of the mountains,
bringing a potential second round of severe weather to some areas.
While risk should decrease across NY/PA overnight, some threat will
likely linger through the end of the period from VA southward into
the Carolinas.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind:
30% - Enhanced Hail: 30% - Enhanced
..Goss.. 04/13/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will be moving across the Southern
Plains on Saturday. On the southern periphery of this trough, a
strong jet streak will be moving across far south Texas. During the
afternoon on Saturday, deep mixing will enable some of these strong
winds aloft to reach the surface. Sustained winds are expected to
peak between 25 and 30 mph with surface relative humidity between
13 and 20 percent. Conditions will likely support some locally
critical conditions, but the small area of concern and marginal
fuels preclude the addition of a critical area.
..Bentley.. 04/13/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...Synopsis... On Sunday, mostly zonal mid-level flow will persist
across much of the western CONUS. A weak mid-level shortwave trough
may lead to some lee troughing in eastern Colorado throughout the
day. The tightening pressure gradient from this lee troughing,
combined with downward transport of mid-level winds due to deep
mixing, is expected to strengthen surface winds across central
Arizona and New Mexico during the afternoon. Elevated conditions
are expected in a corridor from far southern Nevada eastward into
east central New Mexico
..Bentley.. 04/13/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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F.S. Fitzgerald to Hemingway:
"Ernest, the rich are different from us."
Hemingway:
"Yes. They have more money."
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