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LU9DCE > ALERT 22.04.22 19:00z 503 Lines 23742 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 22-ABR.22
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Sent: 220422/1830Z 5992@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Fri, 22 Apr 2022
09:47:02 +0000 Fri, 22 Apr 2022 09:47:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 140 WW 140 SEVERE TSTM IA NE
220415Z - 221100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 140 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CDT Thu Apr
21 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Extreme southwest Iowa South central into east central Nebraska
* Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 1115 PM
until 600 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible
SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms, some with supercell structures, will
persist overnight with a primary threat for occasional large hail of
1.5 to 2 inches in diameter. The strongest storms may also produce
isolated damaging gusts up to 60 mph.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west of Grand
Island NE to 45 miles south southeast of Tekamah NE. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64
KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable
for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in
these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather
conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2
inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23025.
...Thompson
Read more
Fri, 22 Apr 2022 09:46:03 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 140 Status Reports WW 0140 Status
Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 140
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE SDA TO 10
SW OMA TO 5 NNE OLU TO 20 NNE OFK.
..JEWELL..04/22/22
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 140
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC085-155-221040-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARRISON POTTAWATTAMIE
NEC021-037-039-053-055-167-177-221040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BURT COLFAX CUMING DODGE
DOUGLAS STANTON WASHINGTON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Fri, 22 Apr 2022 09:46:03 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Fri Apr 22 09:47:03 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Apr 22
09:47:03 UTC 2022. Fri, 22 Apr 2022 09:46:05 +0000
SPC Apr 22, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM
CDT Fri Apr 22 2022
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of the Great
Plains into Upper Midwest Friday from late this afternoon through
tonight. Supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards,
including tornadoes and very large hail, are possible, particularly
from the Texas Panhandle into north-central Nebraska.
...Southern and Central High Plains...
A progressive upper-level trough will move quickly east-northeastward
across the Desert Southwest today, as a 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet
rounds the base of the trough. The exit region of the mid-level jet
will overspread the southern and central High Plains this afternoon,
increasing large-scale ascent and strengthening deep-layer shear. This
along with a moist and unstable airmass will make conditions favorable
for severe storms.
At the surface, a low will rapidly deepen across northeastern Colorado
today as strong moisture advection occurs to the east of a High Plains
dryline. Surface dewpoints will increase into the upper 50s to lower
60s F by mid afternoon from the Texas Panhandle northward across
western Kansas into west-central Nebraska. This will contribute to
moderate destabilization as surface temperatures warm during the day,
with MLCAPE reaching the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. The capping
inversion is forecast to weaken by late afternoon, which will allow
for rapid convective development along a narrow corridor from the
central Texas Panhandle north-northeastward across western Kansas into
central Nebraska. Thunderstorms will quickly grow upscale early this
evening, with multiple convective clusters persisting into the mid to
late evening.
In addition to the moderate instability, RAP forecast soundings along
the instability axis early this evening have gradually veering winds
with height in the low to mid-levels, with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to
45 knot range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to steadily increase as the
exit region of the mid-level jet overspreads the central Plains during
the evening. This along with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8.5
C/km range will be very favorable for supercells with large hail.
Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with
the more intense supercell updrafts, from west Texas into southwest
Kansas, where instability and lapse rates are forecast to be most
favorable. As the low-level jet strengthens during the early to mid
evening, 0-3 km storm relative helicity will become increasingly
favorable for tornadoes as well. Wind damage is also expected with the
stronger cells. The potential for wind damage and hail could persist
into the late evening, as the mid-level system moves out into the
central High Plains.
...Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest...
An upper-level trough will quickly move eastward through the Desert
Southwest today as a 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet moves through the
base of the trough. Moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear
will be in place by afternoon, making conditions favorable for
organized severe storms. At the surface, a low will rapidly deepen
across northeastern Colorado today, and move north-northeastward into
western Nebraska. A warm front extending eastward from the low will
advance northward across Nebraska this afternoon and into southern
South Dakota this evening. As low-level convergence increases near and
to the north of the surface low during the late afternoon, convection
will likely initiate and move north-northeastward across northwestern
Nebraska and southwestern South Dakota. Convective coverage is
expected to rapidly increase across the northern Plains during the
evening as the exit region of the mid-level jet moves into the area
from the southwest. The current thinking is that a line of strong to
severe storms will move eastward through western Nebraska and western
South Dakota during the evening, with supercells developing ahead of
the line further to the east.
NAM Forecast soundings at Valentine, Nebraska near the peak of
instability early this evening have a loaded gun profile with MLCAPE
in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range. This along with lapse rates
approaching 8.0 C/km in the 700 to 500 mb layer will be favorable for
supercells with large hail. In addition, hodographs are long and
looped with 0-3 km storm relative helicities near 400 m2/s2. This will
be favorable for tornadoes as well with the more dominant cells,
especially as the low-level jet ramps up quickly during the early
evening. Wind damage will also be possible. The threat should persist
through the evening and into the early overnight period as storms move
east-northeastward into the eastern Dakotas late in the period.
Further east across the Upper Midwest, an isolated severe threat could
develop during the evening along the warm front. However, weak
instability should limit severe threat coverage. Hail and strong gusty
winds will be the primary threats.
..Broyles/Jirak.. 04/22/2022
Read more
Fri, 22 Apr 2022 06:01:05 +0000
SPC Apr 22, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM
CDT Fri Apr 22 2022
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
MINNESOTA...FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN...IOWA...FAR SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday through Saturday night in a
corridor from parts of the Upper Midwest into the southern Great
Plains. This may include a risk for tornadoes, strong wind gusts and
hail.
...Synopsis...
A compact upper low will deepen as it shifts east/northeast from the
northern High Plains toward the Upper Midwest on Saturday. The
near-neutral tilt to the accompanied shortwave trough will result in
fairly meridional from about 700 mb upward from the Missouri Valley to
the Upper MS Valley. As the low ejects northeast, the southern
portions of the larger-scale upper trough across the west will shift
eastward more slowly. The bifurcated structure of this system will
result in stronger ascent remaining across northern portions of the
outlook area from the Missouri Valley north/northeastward.
Nevertheless, strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the
southern/central Plains and at least isolated organized convection is
expected from OK north/northeast into Minnesota.
At the surface, an intense low is forecast to develop northeast from
western/central SD toward northwest MN. By early afternoon, a cold
front is forecast to overtake northern portions of a dryline, and
extend from the low southward into eastern NE then southwest across
northern KS into eastern CO. The remainder of the dryline will extend
from eastern KS into west-central OK and then southwest toward the TX
Big Bend vicinity. With time into the evening/overnight hours the cold
front will overtake the dryline in eastern KS/OK. Ahead of these
features, surface dewpoints will range from around 58-64 F beneath
modest midlevel lapse rates. Cloud cover and areas of morning
showers/thunderstorms, in conjunction with somewhat muted midlevel
lapse rates will limit stronger destabilization, especially across
northern portions of the outlook area.
...Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest...
Strong ascent will overspread the region by late morning/early
afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in
the vicinity of the surface low/triple point from the far eastern
Dakotas into MN by midday, and eventually further south along the
eastward-advancing cold front into IA through the afternoon. While
strong effective shear will be in place across the region, aiding in
organized storms, instability will remain modest, around 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE. Enlarged low-level hodographs, becoming elongated above 3 km
may initially support semi-discrete supercells capable of all severe
hazards. However, linear forcing mechanisms and fast storm motion
toward the north/northeast (resulting in storm interactions) will
likely lead to development of line segments. If discrete cells
develop, all severe hazards will be possible, but an increase in
damaging wind and mesovortex tornadoes will ensue as linear storm mode
become dominant. Convection will spread east/northeast through the
evening before encountering increasing inhibition and poorer
moisture/instability with eastward extent toward the MS River.
...KS/OK Vicinity...
Uncertainty remains somewhat higher with southward extent as stronger
ascent will be focused to the north and at least weak capping between
850-700 mb will exist. This midlevel warm layer may suppress discrete
convection through peak heating. Nevertheless, somewhat better
boundary-layer moisture and lapse rates will exist across the region,
resulting in 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 45+ kt effective shear
magnitudes. Large, favorably curved low-level hodographs, becoming
elongated in the midlevels will be present, supporting rotating
storms. As the cold front surges southeast and a southwesterly
low-level jet increases, any lingering inhibition should be overcome
and isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected by evening.
If storms can develop along the dryline during the late afternoon
before the cold surges southeast, supercells capable of all severe
hazards will be possible from parts of southwest into north-central OK
and eastern KS. However, this threat remains conditional and
uncertain. In the absence of stronger ascent, it appears more likely
that convection will wait to develop until the cold front overtakes
the dryline during the evening. Convection should quickly become
linear in this scenario with damaging gusts and mesovortex tornadoes
possible.
...Central/Southwest TX Vicinity...
A conditional threat for isolated, elevated and/or high-based
(depending on timing), supercells will exist during the
evening/overnight along the dryline. If storms develop, effective
shear magnitudes around 45 kt and vertically veering wind profiles
will support supercells amid 1000-2000 J/kg. Isolated strong gusts and
hail will be possible with any cells that develop near the dryline.
..Leitman.. 04/22/2022
Read more
Fri, 22 Apr 2022 06:03:48 +0000
SPC Apr 22, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM
CDT Fri Apr 22 2022
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOWER
MICHIGAN...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of
the southern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley and Lower
Michigan on Sunday.
...Middle Mississippi Valley to Great Lakes Vicinity...
The compact upper low over the Upper Midwest Sunday morning will
gradually weaken as it shifts east/northeast into Ontario. Meanwhile,
a positive-tilt upper trough will pivot east from the Four
Corners/Southwestern Deserts to the central/southern High Plains.
Height falls will remain weak to neutral from the southern Plains into
the Midwest, but enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will remain
over the regions. An occluding surface low will weaken as it shifts
northeast in tandem with the mid/upper level low/trough from the Upper
Midwest to near James Bay by Monday morning. A cold front is forecast
to extend from eastern WI into central MO/OK and western TX. Showers
and thunderstorms likely will be ongoing near/ahead of the front
across WI into MO and eastern OK, and perhaps central TX. This
activity, along with cloud cover and generally weak midlevel lapse
rates will limit destabilization ahead of the front, especially across
the Middle Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes vicinity. Nevertheless,
strong vertical shear and at least a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE may
support sporadic strong gusts. Furthermore, forecast soundings show
favorably curved low-level hodographs, which could support a tornado
or two with linear convective modes across parts of IL into Lower MI
if the low levels can destabilize sufficiently.
...TX/OK/AR...
Low-level south/southeasterly flow across TX into southeast OK/AR will
maintain northward transport of higher-quality Gulf moisture ahead of
the surface cold front. Surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s F are
likely beneath modest midlevel lapse rates. Pockets of stronger
heating should allow for great destabilization compared to further
north/northeast, though morning convection, along with a midlevel warm
layer are resulting in quite a bit of uncertainty in severe potential.
Furthermore, weak surface cyclogenesis, in conjunction with neutral to
modest height falls and nebulous large-scale ascent will keep severe
potential focused near the southward-sagging cold front. As a result,
it is unclear how much open warm sector convection may develop, and
any storms that form could remain near the boundary with storm motion
toward the cool side of the front. If warm sector storms develop,
supercells capable of all severe hazards will be possible, but
uncertainty is too great for more than unconditional Marginal
risk-level probabilities at this time.
..Leitman.. 04/22/2022
Read more
Fri, 22 Apr 2022 07:31:01 +0000
SPC Apr 22, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345
AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A weak upper trough will migrate across the central and eastern U.S.
Days 4-5/Mon-Tue. A surface cold front will shift south across Texas
and across the southern/eastern states during this time. Some marginal
severe threat could develop across parts of southern TX on Day 4/Mon,
but potential appears too low for 15% severe probabilities at this
time. Medium range guidance is consistent in the cold front not
developing too far south into the Gulf, allowing for a higher-quality
moisture reservoir to remain in place just offshore.
Meanwhile, an upper ridge will develop over the Plains on Day 5/Tue
and persist through at least Day 7/Thu, when a large-scale upper
trough will move inland across the western U.S. Lee troughing along
the High Plains mid to late week will allow southerly low-level flow
to begin northward moisture transport across the Plains to the east of
a dryline. Some conditional severe potential could develop over
KS/OK/TX along the dryline by Day 7/Thu, but timing of deeper
boundary-layer moisture, weak forcing and likely capping concerns will
preclude severe probabilities at this time. Deterministic and ensemble
guidance suggest severe potential also could develop across parts of
the southern/central Plains on Day 8/Fri as the western trough
generally begins to pivot eastward, resulting in potentially stronger
lee cyclogenesis across the High Plains. Details and timing vary among
the array of available guidance and confidence is too low to introduce
probabilities at this time, though trends will be monitored over the
coming days and probabilities may become necessary for the
Thursday/Friday time frame.
Read more
Fri, 22 Apr 2022 08:47:58 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202
AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO EASTERN COLORADO...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
***DANGEROUS FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO EASTERN COLORADO***
A highly amplified large-scale trough and accompanying intense
deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern
Rockies and adjacent High Plains by peak heating. As a result, strong
cyclogenesis will occur over far northeastern Colorado during the
afternoon, with a sharpening dryline extending southward along the
Kansas/Colorado border and the Texas/New Mexico border. The
combination of a strong surface pressure gradient, hot/dry conditions
behind the dryline, and strong south-southwesterly flow aloft will
result in extremely critical fire-weather conditions from east-central
New Mexico into eastern Colorado today.
...East-central New Mexico into eastern Colorado...
As temperatures climb into the upper 70s to middle 80s behind the
sharpening dryline, deep boundary-layer mixing into very dry air aloft
will result in widespread 5-15 percent minimum RH. At the same time,
30-40 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds (with widespread
gusts of 50-60 mph) will overspread critically dry fuels (ERCs above
the 90th+ percentile). The volatile combination of very strong/gusty
winds, anomalously warm/dry conditions, and near-record dry fuels will
encourage extreme fire-weather conditions.
...Remainder of the central and southern High Plains...
The eastern extent of critical fire-weather conditions will be
demarcated by the placement of the dryline. Strong 30+ mph sustained
southerly surface winds (with higher gusts) concurrent with afternoon
RH values below 20% will extend into southern New Mexico, West Texas,
the western Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, western Kansas, and western
Nebraska -- where fuels remain critically dry.
...Dry Thunderstorm Potential...
Another point of concern will be isolated dry thunderstorm development
immediately along and ahead of the dryline this afternoon, which is
expected to take place along the axis of the driest fuels. Any
cloud-to-ground lightning flashes that can occur in proximity to the
Colorado/Kansas and New Mexico/Texas border area will do so over very
receptive fuels, and likely with little wetting rainfall at the early
stages of thunderstorm evolution.
..Jirak.. 04/22/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Fri, 22 Apr 2022 07:03:25 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203
AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
An upper-level low is forecast to develop and deepen over the Dakotas
on Saturday with enhanced mid-/low-level flow stretching from
Minnesota southwestward to West Texas. At the surface, a strong low
pressure system will slowly drift to the north-northeast across the
Dakotas with an extensive cold front/dryline extending southward
bisecting the Plains.
...Portions of the central/southern Plains
The surface cyclone and associated dryline responsible for the
significant wildfire-spread concerns on Friday will drift eastward on
Saturday. By Saturday afternoon, the dryline is expected to mix east
to the I-35 corridor in central Kansas and Oklahoma. Widespread 20+
mph sustained winds concurrent with RH values of 15 percent are
expected to ensue in the post-dryline environment for at least a few
hours Saturday afternoon, from New Mexico into western Kansas and
Oklahoma. As a result, critical fire weather conditions are likely
across the region where dry and windy conditions will overlap dry
fuels. Adjustments may be made in future updates if appreciable
rainfall occurs on Friday to temper fire-weather concerns for some
locations.
..Jirak.. 04/22/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Fri, 22 Apr 2022 07:04:25 +0000
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