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LU9DCE > ALERT 25.04.22 20:33z 125 Lines 6056 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6127_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 25-ABR.22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 220425/1931Z 6127@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Mon, 25 Apr 2022
11:24:01 +0000 Mon, 25 Apr 2022 11:24:01 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Apr 25 11:24:02 UTC 2022 No
watches are valid as of Mon Apr 25 11:24:02 UTC 2022. Mon, 25
Apr 2022 11:23:05 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Mon Apr 25 11:24:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Apr 25
11:24:02 UTC 2022. Mon, 25 Apr 2022 11:23:04 +0000
SPC Apr 25, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM
CDT Mon Apr 25 2022
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will pivot northeast across New England and offshore
the Atlantic coast while an upper ridge persists over the Plains on
Wednesday. A weak mid/upper shortwave trough in the vicinity of the
lower CO Valley will weaken as it migrates east across the
central/southern Rockies into the Plains. A weak surface lee low will
develop in response to modest height falls and southerly low-level
flow will begin to transport Gulf moisture northward across the
southern/central Plains. However, boundary-layer moisture will remain
modest and shallow beneath a midlevel capping inversion. As the weak
shortwave trough ejects eastward during the late afternoon into the
overnight hours, isolated elevated thunderstorms are possible over
parts of the central/southern High Plains toward the lower MO Valley.
Weak vertical shear above the midlevel capping inversion and only
modest ascent associated with the weakening shortwave trough will
limit severe potential with these elevated thunderstorms.
..Leitman.. 04/25/2022
Read more
Mon, 25 Apr 2022 06:51:02 +0000
SPC Apr 25, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352
AM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An active period for severe thunderstorm potential is expected late
this week. Beginning Day 4/Thu, a broad upper ridge will be in place
centered over the Plains. Meanwhile, an upper trough near the Pacific
coast will shift east toward the Intermountain and Southwest regions.
Guidance indicates a weak shortwave impulse will be located over the
central/southern Plains early Thursday and some ongoing
showers/thunderstorms are possible in a low/mid-level warm advection
regime. At the surface, a lee low will develop in response to the
eastward-advancing western trough. Southerly low-level flow will
continue to spread Gulf moisture northward across the central/southern
Plains and 60s F dewpoints will be common east of a dryline from
central/north TX into central/eastern OK and central KS. Uncertainty
persists for Thursday, with severe potential appearing quite
conditional. Morning convection, capping and nebulous forcing all are
contributing to low predictability and will preclude severe
probabilities at this time.
On Day 5/Friday, the western upper trough will eject eastward into the
Plains. This will induce stronger lee cyclone development across
eastern CO/western KS with a dryline developing eastward into central
KS/OK by late afternoon/evening. Several days of southerly Gulf return
flow will allow for mid/upper 60s dewpoints to the east of the
dryline, potentially as far north as far south-central NE. A plume of
steep midlevel lapse rates will reside across the region atop a moist
warm sector. This should generally support moderate destabilization,
though guidance does indicate widespread cloud cover and areas of
showers/thunderstorms in this low-level warm advection regime could
limit heating. Nevertheless, increasing ascent by late
afternoon/evening will support thunderstorm develop near the surface
dryline. While deep-layer flow will increase during the evening,
forecast effective shear is somewhat modest, though adequate for
organized convection, including supercells. All severe hazards will be
possible with this activity from late Friday afternoon into the
nighttime hours extending from far north Texas through central/eastern
OK/KS (along the dryline) and south-central NE (closer to the surface
triple point).
By Day 6/Saturday, severe potential will shift east toward the Ozarks
vicinity as the upper trough pivots northeast from the
southern/central Plains toward the mid/upper MS Valley. Saturday
severe thunderstorm potential will be influenced by the evolution of
activity on Friday/Friday night. Forecast guidance indicates quite a
bit of convection ongoing Saturday morning from the mid/lower MO
Valley into eastern OK and the ArkLaTex vicinity. If this scenario
unfolds, then severe potential may be muted by lack of destabilization
to the east of an eastward-progressing surface cold front. Low
confidence/high uncertainty will preclude severe probabilities at this
time.
Predictability remains low through the end of the period as guidance
varies considerably with the evolution of the central U.S. trough
beyond Saturday.
Read more
Mon, 25 Apr 2022 08:54:57 +0000
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