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LU9DCE > ALERT 02.05.22 23:00z 342 Lines 16120 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 02-MAY.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Mon, 02 May 2022
08:52:02 +0000 Mon, 02 May 2022 08:52:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon May 2 08:52:02 UTC 2022 No
watches are valid as of Mon May 2 08:52:02 UTC 2022. Mon, 02
May 2022 08:51:06 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Mon May 2 08:52:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon May 2
08:52:02 UTC 2022. Mon, 02 May 2022 08:51:05 +0000
SPC May 2, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM
CDT Mon May 02 2022
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the
southern Plains into the Ozarks. Large to very large hail, scattered
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible. Marginally severe
hail and wind are also possible in southern Idaho.
...Synopsis...
A potent shortwave trough will move into the southern/central Plains
today. A surface cyclone will deepen in the Texas Panhandle before
pivoting northeastward into the Ozarks during the evening/overnight.
A warm front is expected to continue advancing northward to near the
Kansas Oklahoma border. Its progression will be modulated by warm
advection precipitation that is expected in parts of Oklahoma and
Texas. By afternoon, a dryline will be situated in western/central
Oklahoma with a triple point in the north-central
Oklahoma/south-central Kansas vicinity. A cold front will shift
southward toward the Red River by late afternoon into the evening.
...Southern Plains...
Convection is expected to be ongoing early in the day. This activity
is expected to shift northeastward by late morning. Southerly
low-level flow will continue to advect mid/upper 60s F dewpoints into
the region. This should support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by late
afternoon. Initial storm development is most likely near the triple
point, with less certainty southward along the dryline. Given the
40-55 kts of effective shear, discrete storm modes would be favored.
Large to very large hail and tornadoes, perhaps a couple strong, would
be hazards. The greatest potential for a strong tornado would exist
with storms that interact with the warm front.
Guidance does show the potential for upscale growth with time. This is
most likely to occur as the cold front advances south and overtakes
the dryline. With somewhat weak anvil-level winds in forecast
soundings, supercells near the warm front could also grow upscale more
quickly than expected. All said, the threat for damaging winds will
likely increase towards evening across parts of northeast Oklahoma
into northwest Arkansas.
...Southern Missouri...
Questions remain with regard to how much destabilization will occur
given early-day precipitation. However, the track of the shortwave and
surface low do suggest some moisture return will occur by late
afternoon into the evening. Given strong flow at 850 mb, there is at
least some potential for damaging winds, particularly if an organized
line can maintain itself to the east.
...Southern Idaho...
Strong shear with the approach of a shortwave trough will promote
potentially organized storms as the Pacific front moves into the area.
Limited buoyancy will keep the severe threat marginal, but some hail
and gusty winds are possible.
..Wendt/Darrow.. 05/02/2022
Read more
Mon, 02 May 2022 05:59:11 +0000
SPC May 2, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM
CDT Mon May 02 2022
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
A severe threat will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the Ohio
Valley southwestward into the mid Mississippi Valley.
...Ohio Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the western Great
Lakes and lower Ohio Valley on Tuesday, as an associated 45 to 60 knot
mid-level jet translates eastward into the mid to upper Ohio Valley.
At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the Ohio
and mid Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in
the Ohio Valley will increase into the lower to mid 60s F, with
moderate instability developing across much of the moist sector.
Although elevated thunderstorms should be ongoing ahead of the trough
during morning, surface-based storms are expected to develop near and
ahead of the front during the afternoon from south-central Ohio
southwestward into northern and western Kentucky. Increasing
low-level convergence along the front will contribute to a ramp up in
storm coverage during the mid to late afternoon. At that time, MLCAPE
is forecast to peak ahead of the front in the 1200 to 2000 J/kg range.
Several line segments or small cell clusters are expected to develop
along the instability axis and move eastward into the foothills of the
Appalachians by early evening.
In addition to moderate instability, NAM forecast soundings at 21Z
from Columbus, Ohio southwestward to Louisville, Kentucky have strong
speed shear in the low to mid-levels with winds veered to the
southwest. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 40 knot range
suggesting supercells will be possible. But the more likely storm mode
will be multicellular given the veered wind profiles. As such, linear
mode may dominate. This would make wind damage the most likely severe
threat, along the leading edge of the more intense line segments. Any
threat would be concentrated in the late afternoon when low-level
lapse rates peak. But an isolated severe threat could persist into the
early evening as cells move eastward into the western foothills of the
Appalachians.
..Broyles.. 05/02/2022
Read more
Mon, 02 May 2022 06:00:59 +0000
SPC May 2, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM
CDT Mon May 02 2022
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHWEST TEXAS...THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with large hail, wind damage and some tornadoes
will be likely Wednesday afternoon and evening across the southern
Plains extending northeastward into the western Ozarks. Very large
hail will be likely and strong tornadoes will be possible.
...Southern and Central Plains/Western Ozarks...
An upper-level low will move across the central Rockies on Wednesday
as cyclonic divergent southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the
southern and central Plains. A 50 to 65 knot mid-level jet, initially
in the base of the trough, will eject northeastward across the
southern Plains creating strong deep-layer shear favorable for severe
storms. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the
southern and central High Plains as a low deepens across the Texas
Panhandle. Strong moisture advection will take place across the
southern Plains. Surface dewpoints should be in the mid to upper 60s F
across much of north Texas and Oklahoma. This will result in moderate
to strong instability from west Texas northeastward into western and
central Oklahoma by afternoon. Thunderstorms are first expected to
initiate during the late afternoon, to the east of the dryline in the
eastern Texas Panhandle. Additional storms should form eastward across
the moist sector in western and central Oklahoma, where a baroclinic
zone will exist. As cell coverage increases during the late afternoon
and early evening, several severe storm clusters are expected to
organize and move eastward across the northwest Texas and Oklahoma.
Considering the parameter space near and to the east of the dryline,
the NAM forecast sounding near Childress at 00Z/Thursday is very
favorable for supercells with large hail. MLCAPE is forecast to be
near 3000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 55 knot range. 500-700
mb lapse rates are forecast to be extreme, approaching 9.0 C/km along
the dryline in northwest Texas. Supercells that intensify in this
thermodynamic environment will likely produce very large hailstones,
greater than 2 inches in diameter. Some tornadoes could occur along
the dryline as well from the eastern Texas Panhandle southward into
the Low Rolling Plains.
Further to the east into western and central Oklahoma, a high-end
parameter space is also forecast late Wednesday afternoon. The NAM
forecast sounding at Oklahoma City for 00Z/Thursday has MLCAPE near
2800 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 55 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse
rates of 8.5 C/km. This will again be very favorable for supercells
with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be
likely with the more intense supercells. 0-3 storm relative helicity
is forecast to increase into the 300 to 350 m2/s2 range during the
early evening. This will make tornadoes possible with the more
dominant supercells, especially to the north and west of the low-level
jet in central and western Oklahoma. A strong tornado or two will be
possible in this environment.
Thunderstorms are expected to continue into the mid to late evening,
moving east-northeastward across eastern Oklahoma and into the western
Ozarks. Supercells and bowing line segments will be possible, with
isolated large hail and wind damage. The threat could persist into the
early overnight period.
..Broyles.. 05/02/2022
Read more
Mon, 02 May 2022 07:31:09 +0000
SPC May 2, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349
AM CDT Mon May 02 2022
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6...
An upper-level trough will move eastward into the western Ozarks and
Arklatex on Thursday, as an associated a cold front advances
southeastward into the same area. Ahead of the front, a moist and
unstable airmass is forecast across the lower and mid Mississippi
Valley, where surface dewpoints in the 60s should contribute to
moderate instability by afternoon. During the day, thunderstorms are
likely to develop along the front and eastward across the moist
sector. A mid-level jet, associated with the upper-level trough, will
create moderate to strong deep-layer shear favorable for severe
storms. Large hail, wind damage and some tornadoes can be expected
during the afternoon and evening. A 30 percent contour has been added
where parameters are most favorable, from eastern Arkansas into
northwest Mississippi and far western Tennessee.
On Friday and Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move across the
Southeast and western Atlantic, as moisture return begins in the
southern and central Plains. Isolated severe storms could occur along
parts of the front in the Southeast on Friday. Model forecasts are now
in better agreement in the Great Plains on Saturday. An axis of
moderate instability may develop from Oklahoma north-northwestward
into Kansas and Nebraska Saturday afternoon. Although large-scale
ascent is forecast to be weak due to a central U.S. upper-level ridge,
thunderstorms could develop along a dryline near the western edge of
the stronger instability. Supercells with large hail and wind damage
would be possible but any severe threat should remain isolated.
...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8...
On Sunday, model forecasts develop an upper-level low over the
southwestern U.S., as an 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet moves into the
base of the trough. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be
located from the southern Plains northward into the mid Missouri
Valley by Sunday afternoon. Isolated severe thunderstorms will again
be possible to the east of a Great Plains dryline Sunday afternoon and
evening. On Monday, the upper-level low is forecast to remain over the
western U.S., with a moist corridor becoming established across
eastern parts of the Great Plains into the Ozarks and lower Missouri
Valley. Thunderstorm development will again be possible along a Great
Plains dryline and across parts of the moist corridor. For Sunday and
Monday, large differences exist in the model solutions, suggesting
that uncertainty is considerable.
Read more
Mon, 02 May 2022 08:51:59 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157
AM CDT Mon May 02 2022
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO...
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move into the southern Plains today. Farther
west, another shortwave trough will move into the Great Basin. At the
surface, a cyclone will deepen in the Texas Panhandle before moving
northeastward through the day. A cold front will eventually move
southward into the High Plains region.
...New Mexico...
Despite weaker mid-level winds, critical fire weather is possible
during the afternoon due to the strong surface pressure gradient.
Westerly winds will reach 20+ mph in some parts of central and
southern New Mexico. The airmass will remain quite dry and RH will
fall to 10-15%.
...Texas Panhandle into the Permian Basin...
Critical meteorological conditions are possible in the Panhandle and
South Plains. However, scattered thunderstorms on Sunday evening have
produced rainfall across the region, particularly in the Panhandle.
Highlights have been adjusted to account for rain-impacted fuels.
Localized fire weather concerns are still possible in those areas,
however.
...Southern Nevada...
With the approaching trough, southerly/southwesterly winds will
increase ahead of a Pacific boundary. Fuels that have become
critically dry will promote large fire potential. Winds of 15-20 mph
will be common, but isolated higher speeds are possible. RH should
generally range from 15-20% during the afternoon.
..Wendt.. 05/02/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Mon, 02 May 2022 06:58:27 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158
AM CDT Mon May 02 2022
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
In the wake of Monday's shortwave trough, another trough will move
into the central Rockies/Four Corners region on Tuesday. A lee trough
will deepen during the day in eastern New Mexico.
...Southwest and Southern High Plains...
Stronger mid-level winds are expected on Tuesday. Coupled with another
deepening lee trough, Critical fire weather should also be more
widespread than on Monday. Humidity will range from 10-20% during the
afternoon. Winds are expected to reach 20-25 mph in northwest Arizona
into central and eastern New Mexico with other areas seeing 15-20 mph.
..Wendt.. 05/02/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Mon, 02 May 2022 07:00:31 +0000
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