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LU9DCE > ALERT 03.05.22 23:00z 371 Lines 17970 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 03-MAY.22
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Tue, 03 May 2022
08:51:02 +0000 Tue, 03 May 2022 08:51:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue May 3 08:51:02 UTC 2022 No
watches are valid as of Tue May 3 08:51:02 UTC 2022. Tue, 03
May 2022 08:50:05 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Tue May 3 08:51:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue May 3
08:51:02 UTC 2022. Tue, 03 May 2022 08:50:04 +0000
SPC May 3, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM
CDT Tue May 03 2022
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
A severe threat will be possible Tuesday mainly from Kentucky across
Ohio and into western Pennsylvania. A few strong storms are also
expected from southern Virginia into northern North Carolina and from
western Tennessee into parts of Texas.
...Ohio Valley...
Upper trough currently approaching the mid MS Valley will progress
into the OH Valley by late afternoon as 500mb speed max translates
across southern IL into OH ahead of the short wave. Associated surface
low is expected to track into northern IN by 18z, then into OH before
shifting into northwestern PA after sunset. Latest model guidance
suggest boundary-layer heating will contribute to substantial
steepening of low-level lapse rates across southern portions of the OH
Valley and this will aid destabilization ahead of the surface
front/short wave. Significant destabilization is forecast along a
corridor from western KY into southern OH which will support robust
convection along/ahead of the cold front. Forecast soundings exhibit
strong deep-layer flow with ample SRH for potential supercells, though
a mixed storm mode is likely. Damaging wind should be the primary
threat but one or two tornadoes are also possible if destabilization
occurs as expected.
...Elsewhere...
Isolated-scattered thunderstorms appear possible along the cold front
as it advances into the western TN Valley, trailing into the Arklatex.
While buoyancy will likely support a few robust storms, mid-
high-level flow will be notably weaker across this region and
organized severe is not expected. Though, gusty winds/hail may be
noted with a few storms.
Some potential for a few strong/severe thunderstorms will also exist
near the VA/NC border along a stalled front draped across this region.
Strong boundary-layer heating is expected south of the front and this
should allow surface parcels to reach their convective temperatures by
20z. 25-30kt of 500mb westerly flow could allow a few storms to
organize near this boundary. Gusty winds and hail are the main
threats.
Strong heating across northern Mexico should contribute to convection
developing over the higher terrain west of DRT where return flow
remains moist. A few supercells could approach/cross the international
border with an attendant threat for hail/wind, though most storms
should remain southwest of the TX border.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 05/03/2022
Read more
Tue, 03 May 2022 05:37:03 +0000
SPC May 3, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM
CDT Tue May 03 2022
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS....
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with large hail, wind damage and some tornadoes
will be likely Wednesday afternoon and evening across the southern
Plains extending northeastward into the western Ozarks. From the
eastern Texas Panhandle into central Oklahoma, very large hail will be
likely and a strong tornado will be possible.
...Southern Plains/Ozarks...
An upper-level low will move eastward across the central Rockies on
Wednesday, as a 45 to 60 knot mid-level jet ejects out of the base of
the trough over the southern and central Plains. An impressive
elevated mixed layer will advect eastward over the western edge of a
moderately unstable airmass situated across much of the southern
Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen across west Texas as a cold
front advances southward into the northern Texas Panhandle. A dryline
extending southward from the low will sharpen across west Texas. Winds
to the east of the dryline will be backed to the south-southeast with
surface dewpoints rising into the mid to upper 60s F by afternoon
across much of the warm sector.
Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing in the morning at the northern
edge of the moist airmass from northern Oklahoma into southeast
Kansas. South of this area, the airmass should remain undisturbed into
early afternoon. Surface-based thunderstorms are forecast to first
initiate to the east of the dryline across the central Texas Panhandle
southward over the Caprock near Lubbock. These storms should grow
upscale quickly moving eastward into the Low Rolling Plains during the
late afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are also forecast to develop
further to the east along pre-existing boundaries associated with
outflows and low-level convergence zones. Several severe storm
clusters are expected to be maintained into the early to mid evening
from the eastern Texas Panhandle eastward across much of Oklahoma and
southward into northwest Texas.
Concerning the environment to the east of the dryline, NAM forecast
soundings during the late afternoon near Childress have MLCAPE near
3000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear of 50 to 55 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates
near 8.0 C/km. This will be very favorable for supercells with large
hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible
with the more intense updrafts. Supercells will also be capable of
producing tornadoes, especially during the early evening when the
low-level jet is forecast to rapidly strengthen over northwest Texas.
The greatest chance for tornadoes should exist to the west and
northwest of the low-level jet from northwest Texas into the far
eastern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. Wind damage will also be
possible with supercells and short bowing line segments.
Concerning uncertainties and event failure modes, a capping inversion
will be present around midday across much of the southern Plains. The
cap is forecast to weaken enough by late afternoon for discrete
development to the east of the dryline. A weak cap may remain in place
during the early evening, helping storms to remain discrete, which
would be positive for the large hail and tornado threat. The mid-level
jet is forecast to eject out of the base of the trough around 40
knots, creating strong deep-layer shear and lift favorable for a
severe weather event across the southern Plains. But the speed of
movement of the 500 mb jet will be marginal for a larger-scale event.
The current thinking is that widespread large hail is likely, but that
the tornado threat will depend upon how many cells remain discrete. If
a cluster of discrete supercells can remain in tact and move eastward
into southwest Oklahoma, then there will be potential for strong
tornadoes with the more organized supercells.
The severe threat should be more isolated southward across
west-central Texas where the capping inversion will be somewhat strong
during the late afternoon and early evening. Further to the east,
warm-advection related storms are expected to develop and move
northeastward across eastern Oklahoma and into the Ozarks during the
evening and early overnight period. Large hail, wind damage and an
isolated tornado threat will be possible with the most intense storms.
..Broyles.. 05/03/2022
Read more
Tue, 03 May 2022 05:56:59 +0000
SPC May 3, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman
OK 0233 AM CDT Tue May 03 2022
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARKLATEX...OZARKS AND LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
A severe threat will be likely on Thursday across parts of the
southern Plains, Arklatex, Ozarks and lower to mid Mississippi Valley.
Wind damage, hail and a few tornadoes are expected.
...Southern Plains/Arklatex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi
Valley... An upper-level low will move eastward across the central
High Plains on Thursday, with cyclonic southwesterly mid-level flow
remaining over the Arklatex, Ozarks and lower to mid Mississippi
Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across
the southern Plains. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at
the start of the period along and ahead of the front from Oklahoma
into Missouri. The storms should be elevated, moving northeastward
into the mid Mississippi Valley by midday. Further southwest, a moist
and unstable airmass will be in place by early afternoon from parts of
central Texas northeastward into eastern Arkansas, where surface
dewpoints are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s F. Moderate
instability will develop across much of the moist sector by midday.
This along with increasing low-level convergence along and ahead of
the front, will likely result in steady increase in convective
coverage across the moist sector during the afternoon. Some model
solutions suggest that a squall line will organize and move eastward
across the Arklatex in the afternoon, reaching the lower Mississippi
Valley by early evening. This possibility seems reasonable.
A 50 to 70 knot mid-level jet is forecast to move into the base of the
trough during the afternoon across the southern Plains and Arklatex.
On the right side of this feature, moderate to strong deep-layer shear
and strong lift, will create conditions favorable for severe storms.
NAM forecast soundings at Shreveport and Little Rock at 21Z have
MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km from 35 to 45
knots. This will be sufficient for supercells with storms that can
develop further to the east across the moist sector, and away from the
squall line organizing to the west. Supercells that can develop will
have a potential for hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes. However,
winds are forecast to veer in the low-levels as the front approaches.
This will be more favorable for the development of a linear MCS than
for discrete storms, which would make wind damage as the greatest
threat. Tornadoes will be possible with the stronger rotating cells
embedded within the squall line. The wind damage potential is
expected to ramp upward in the late afternoon and early evening as a
severe linear MCS moves across northeast Texas and from central to
eastern Arkansas into northern Louisiana.
Further southwest into the southern Plains, the tail end of the squall
line should be located somewhere in east Texas, where a wind damage
potential will exist. Although moderate instability will be in place
across the Texas Hill Country and along the Texas Coastal Plain, any
cell that can initiate there should remain very isolated.
..Broyles.. 05/03/2022
Read more
Tue, 03 May 2022 07:36:05 +0000
SPC May 3, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348
AM CDT Tue May 03 2022
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6...
On Friday, the models are in agreement that an upper-level trough will
move eastward across southeastern U.S., and that a moist and unstable
airmass will be in place from east Texas eastward across much of the
Gulf Coast states. Although large-scale ascent is expected to be
minimal along this corridor, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may
develop on the northern and western edges of the stronger instability
where low-level convergence would be maximized. At this time, the
models are not keying in on any specific area where the severe threat
could warrant a 15 percent contour.
On Saturday, the models are in better agreement, with a narrow
corridor of moisture returning northward into the central Plains.
Thunderstorms will be possible along the western edge and on the
northern end of the stronger instability, in parts of central and
eastern Nebraska Saturday evening. Forecast instability and deep-layer
shear appear strong enough for a severe threat. But there is
considerable spatial uncertainty and the magnitude of moisture return
is questionable. For this reason, will hold off on a 15 percent
contour at this time.
Model differences increase on Sunday, with some solutions moving a
shortwave trough across the central and northern Plains, while others
maintain southwest mid-level flow in that same area. The models are in
better agreement concerning moisture return, with a moist and unstable
airmass in place by afternoon from northeast Oklahoma into
north-central Missouri. Under that scenario, severe storm development
would be likely along the western edge and at the north end of the
stronger instability. But that would be dependent upon the timing of a
shortwave trough. Due to the magnitude of instability that is forecast
and potential for a shortwave trough to impact the region, a 15
percent contour is added for parts of the central Plains and lower to
mid Missouri Valley for Sunday.
...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8...
On Monday, the models are again in reasonable agreement concerning
moisture return in the central U.S., with the richest airmass of the
season advecting northward into parts of the lower to mid Missouri
Valley. With a potential for strong instability, surface dewpoints in
the lower to mid 70s F, and a shortwave trough in southwest mid-level
flow, will add a 15 percent area also for Monday over parts of the
lower to mid Missouri Valley. The same potential is forecast on
Tuesday by some models solutions, but due to increased uncertainty on
Day 8 at the furthest out range, will hold off on adding a severe
threat area.
Read more
Tue, 03 May 2022 08:50:58 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246
AM CDT Tue May 03 2022
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...
...Synopsis...
Another shortwave trough within the Great Basin will move into the
central Rockies today. A deep surface low will develop in eastern
Colorado and slowly shift into eastern New Mexico through the day.
Mid-level winds will strengthen as the trough approaches and the
strong surface pressure gradient will drive westerly/southwesterly
winds across much of Arizona and New Mexico. A Pacific front will move
through the Great Basin and into Arizona.
...Southwest...
Critical fire weather is expected during the afternoon. Surface winds
will reach 20-25 mph from northwest Arizona into western and central
New Mexico. Some higher speeds are possible locally. Dry air will
remain across the region. As the trough moves in, some higher-level
moisture may be brought northward. This will mean an increase in
high-level clouds which could impact afternoon RH. Even with some
cloud cover potential, values of 10-15% are still expected. Elevated
conditions are expected within southeast Arizona and eastern New
Mexico where winds will be 15-20 mph with 15-20% RH.
...Southern Nevada...
Strong northerly winds behind the cold front will develop relatively
early in the day. The post-front airmass will remain dry and humidity
could fall to near 20% early and to near 10% later in the day. The
strongest winds (20 mph) are expected earlier in the day and may not
overlap much with critically low RH. Elevated fire weather is
expected.
..Wendt.. 05/03/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Tue, 03 May 2022 05:48:26 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149
AM CDT Tue May 03 2022
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO...
...Synopsis...
The shortwave trough over the Rockies will eventually eject into the
central Plains on Wednesday. Stronger mid-level flow will exist more
broadly across the Southwest. At the surface, a cyclone will deepen in
eastern New Mexico and drive downslope flow across the state.
...New Mexico...
Fire weather concerns will be focused across southern, central and
eastern portions of the state. As compared to Tuesday, mid-level winds
will be stronger over a broader area, particularly in the south.
Surface winds will also be more westerly and favor drier conditions.
Afternoon RH is expected to fall to 5-15%. Winds of 20-25 mph are also
expected. Some of the higher elevation areas in the Critical
highlights may only see Elevated conditions due to slightly higher RH
values.
..Wendt.. 05/03/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Tue, 03 May 2022 06:50:26 +0000
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