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LU9DCE > ALERT 04.05.22 19:00z 384 Lines 19090 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 04-MAY.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Wed, 04 May 2022
08:59:02 +0000 Wed, 04 May 2022 08:59:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Wed May 4 08:59:02 UTC 2022 No
watches are valid as of Wed May 4 08:59:02 UTC 2022. Wed, 04
May 2022 08:58:06 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Wed May 4 08:59:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed May 4
08:59:02 UTC 2022. Wed, 04 May 2022 08:58:05 +0000
SPC May 4, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM
CDT Wed May 04 2022
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and very large
hail should occur mainly this afternoon and evening from the eastern
Texas Panhandle and northwest Texas across parts of southern, central,
and eastern Oklahoma. A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible
within this corridor. Damaging winds will also be a concern across
much of Oklahoma into the Ozarks this evening and tonight, with a
continued threat of isolated tornadoes.
...Synopsis...
A upper trough/low will move slowly eastward today from the Rockies
across the southern/central High Plains. A 50-60 kt mid-level
southwesterly jet will extend from the southern High Plains across
much of OK/KS by this evening. At the surface, a low should develop
east-southeastward over the southern High Plains through the day, with
a dryline extending southward from this low across west TX. A warm
front will lift northward across TX and into parts of OK/AR by late
this afternoon, with rich low-level moisture present to its south. A
cold front attendant to the surface low will eventually sweep
southeastward across the southern High Plains late this evening and
overnight.
...Southern Plains into the Ozarks...
A complex forecast scenario is evident across the southern Plains
today, with multiple corridors and rounds of potentially significant
severe thunderstorms possible. If any convection can develop early
this morning in the low-level warm advection regime to the north of
the warm front, it would pose a threat for large hail given the
presence of moderate MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear. Any morning
thunderstorms may also act to limit the northward advance of the warm
front across OK, and the placement of the effective warm front by this
afternoon/early evening remains a source of considerable uncertainty.
The dryline will mix eastward across the TX Panhandle and South Plains
region through this afternoon, with a corridor of at least mid 60s
surface dewpoints present along/east across TX and southern/central
OK. It appears likely that isolated to scattered supercells will form
along the dryline by mid to late afternoon. Moderate to strong
instability, steep mid-level lapse rates, and 40-50+ kt of effective
bulk shear all suggest that these supercells will pose a threat for
very large hail. As this convection spreads eastward across northwest
TX and into southwestern OK by this evening, it should encounter
greater low-level moisture. A low-level jet is also forecast to
strengthen somewhat by the early evening across this region.
Increasing low-level shear and elongated hodographs will likely foster
updraft rotation with any cells that can remain discrete, and the
tornado threat should increase late this afternoon and evening. Given
the favorable low-level shear forecast, with effective SRH around
200-300+ m2/s2, some of these tornadoes could be strong.
There also appears to be potential for additional convection to form
in the open warm sector across north TX and southern OK this morning
and afternoon as modest low-level warm advection persists across this
area. Any thunderstorms that can form along/south of the warm front
would pose a threat for all severe hazards, although the low-level
flow is forecast to remain fairly modest through the early afternoon.
The coverage and placement of any early day convection will greatly
influence the severe potential later this afternoon and evening across
central/eastern OK and north TX. If thunderstorms remain relatively
sparse through mid day, as some high-resolution guidance suggests,
then the warm front will be able to lift farther north in
central/eastern OK. Isolated to scattered supercells may form along
the warm front in central/eastern OK by late afternoon and continuing
through the evening as a southerly low-level jet slowly strengthens.
Very large hail and tornadoes would be the main threats with these
supercells if they form, and a couple strong tornadoes appear
possible. Eventually, this activity should grow upscale into an MCS,
with greater damaging wind potential.
At this point, there is too much uncertainty with the placement of the
warm front later today, and with the potential for early day
convection across the warm sector, to include greater tornado and/or
severe hail probabilities. But, a more focused mesoscale corridor of
severe potential may eventually become evident across some portion of
the Enhanced Risk.
...Carolinas into Southeastern Virginia...
A shortwave trough will progress eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and
Carolinas today. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow will be present over
these regions, although low-level winds are forecast to remain rather
weak. Convection should form along a surface trough by the afternoon.
Strong diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass should support
moderate instability, and steepened low-level lapse rates should also
develop. Modest deep-layer shear will probably tend to limit
convective organization to some extent. Still, a few multicells
capable of producing both isolated damaging winds and hail should move
eastward much of the Carolinas and parts of southeastern VA through
the afternoon and early evening, before weakening or moving offshore.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 05/04/2022
Read more
Wed, 04 May 2022 06:04:08 +0000
SPC May 4, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM
CDT Wed May 04 2022
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE ARKLATEX AND OZARKS...
...SUMMARY...
A severe threat will be likely on Thursday across parts of the
southern Plains, Arklatex, Ozarks and lower to mid Mississippi Valley.
Wind damage, hail and a few tornadoes are expected.
...Southern Plains/Arklatex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi
Valley... An upper-level low will move across the central Plains on
Thursday, as an associated 50 to 70 knot mid-level jet moves
east-northeastward across the Red River Valley and into the Arklatex.
At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the
southern Plains, and will be located from the Texas Hill Country
northeastward into eastern Oklahoma by afternoon. A very moist airmass
will be in place ahead of the front with surface dewpoints in the
upper 60s and lower 70s F. At the start of the period, scattered
elevated thunderstorms should be ongoing ahead of the front across
parts of the Ozarks. These storms are forecast to move eastward into
the mid Mississippi Valley by midday. Further to the southwest,
surface-based thunderstorms are forecast to develop along and ahead of
the front. These storms are expected to organize into an MCS and move
east-southeastward across the Arklatex during the late afternoon, and
into the lower Mississippi Valley by mid to late evening.
Concerning the environment, model forecasts continue to develop
moderate instability across a large part of the moist sector from
central Texas into western and central Arkansas by afternoon.
However, the models have backed off markedly on instability across the
northern Ozarks due to the elevated convective complex that is
forecast during the morning. Strong deep-layer shear is forecast
within the moderately unstable airmass further to the southwest from
central Arkansas to northeast Texas. This will be due to a mid-level
jet passing through the southern Ozarks. To the right of the mid-level
jet, lift and shear will be enhanced making conditions favorable for
squall line development. The squall line is expected to become
organized during the early afternoon from western Arkansas into
northeast Texas. A wind damage threat will be likely along the leading
edge of the line. Although linear mode should be favored, isolated
supercells could develop ahead of the line or within the line itself.
Tornadoes could occur with supercells, or could be associated with
line echo wave patterns within the squall line. Overall for this
event, the models have not been consistent concerning the distribution
of instability. This has contributed to a large spread of potential
convective outcomes making for a lower confidence forecast.
Further to the southwest from central to east Texas, convective
coverage will be more isolated with southwestward extent owing to less
large-scale ascent and weaker deep-layer shear. Still, any storms that
can form within the moderately unstable airmass, should be associated
with a threat for wind damage and hail.
..Broyles.. 05/04/2022
Read more
Wed, 04 May 2022 06:05:52 +0000
SPC May 4, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM
CDT Wed May 04 2022
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with wind damage and hail are expected during
the day on Friday from parts of the Gulf Coast states northward into
the Tennessee Valley. An isolated wind damage threat could also
develop in parts of the Ohio Valleys.
...Southeast/Tennessee Valley...
An upper-level low will move across the mid Mississippi Valley on
Friday, as a 55 to 65 knot mid-level jet translates eastward through
the base of the system. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southeastward into the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys. A
morning convective complex is forecast to move eastward across the
lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast States. Moderate
instability should develop ahead of this complex with surface-based
thunderstorms forming and expanding in coverage around midday. The
most favorable severe threat during the afternoon will be determined
by the extent of cloud cover and surface heating along with locations
of outflow boundaries from the morning storms.
The models are currently forecasting moderate instability by early
afternoon from the central Gulf Coast northeastward into eastern
Alabama and northwest Georgia. In addition, model forecasts have 0-6
km shear along this corridor in the 40 to 50 knot range. This would
support supercell development with a potential for wind damage, hail
and an isolated tornado threat. But the favored mode is still
uncertain. If multicell line segments are the favored mode, then wind
damage would be the primary threat. There is a lot of uncertainty at
this time due to the morning convective complex, which will determine
the afternoon distribution of surface heating. The slight risk has
been placed along the corridor where the models are in the best
agreement concerning the early afternoon instability.
...Ohio Valley...
An upper-level low will move eastward across the mid Mississippi
Valley on Friday. Large-scale ascent associated with the low will
gradually overspread the Ohio Valley during the morning, supporting a
relatively large area of elevated convection. This will suppress
surface-heating across parts of the Ohio Valley, with moderate
instability developing in other areas not impacted by the morning
storms. Wind shear will be strengthened by a 55 to 65 knot mid-level
jet moving eastward through the mid Mississippi Valley. Due to the
jet, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 40 to 50 knot range across
much of the Ohio Valley. This will support isolated severe storm
development. The favored mode is expected to be linear, and a few
short to medium-sized line segments will be possible during the early
to mid afternoon. Isolated wind damage may occur along the leading
edge of the stronger line segments, with any threat persisting into
the late afternoon when low-level lapse rates will be the steepest.
..Broyles.. 05/04/2022
Read more
Wed, 04 May 2022 07:30:04 +0000
SPC May 4, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356
AM CDT Wed May 04 2022
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6...
A low amplitude progressive upper-level trough is forecast to move
across the western U.S. on Saturday, as moisture advection takes place
across the Great Plains. By afternoon, an axis of moderate instability
is forecast across the southern and central Plains. Thunderstorms
will likely develop at the northern end of the instability corridor
across the Dakotas and Nebraska. The best combination of instability
and shear is currently forecast over Nebraska, where a severe threat
would develop near the exit region of a broad mid-level jet. Large
hail and wind damage would be the primary threats. A 15 percent
contour is added across parts of the central Plains for Saturday
afternoon and evening.
On Sunday, the models maintain southwesterly mid-level flow across the
central U.S. and continue moisture advection across eastern parts of
the Great Plains into the Ozarks and Arklatex. The northern end of
this unstable airmass is forecast across eastern parts of the central
Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. Even though forcing could be
minimal, thunderstorms would develop in areas where low-level
convergence becomes locally maximized. Strong deep-layer shear should
exist along the instability axis creating favorable conditions for
severe storms. Any severe threat would remain isolated, but a 15
percent contour seems warranted due to the forecast quality of
low-level moisture and instability.
For Monday, southwest mid-level flow is likely across the
north-central states. This will enable low-level moisture advection to
continue across eastern parts of the Great Plains and over the western
Mississippi Valley. Surface dewpoints could reach the 70s across parts
of the Upper Midwest. Thunderstorm development would be possible
Monday afternoon along an axis of moderate to strong instability from
the mid Missouri Valley northward into the upper Mississippi Valley.
Again, considering the quality of low-level moisture, a 15 percent
contour seems warranted, in spite of the uncertainties.
...Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8...
On Tuesday and Wednesday, model forecasts develop a belt of strong
southwest mid-level flow across the western and northern states. A
moist and unstable airmass is forecast to remain over the eastern
Great Plains and western Mississippi Valley. Mid-level flow is
forecast to become more meridional on Wednesday as an upper-level low
develops across the southwestern U.S. As a result, the stronger flow
is forecast to shift westward into the High Plains. Although
thunderstorms may develop along the corridor of low-level moisture
further to the east, uncertainty is substantial concerning the
magnitude of deep-layer shear that will be in place. Also, a lack of
large-scale ascent will be problematic. These factors are too great to
warrant adding a severe threat area at this time.
Read more
Wed, 04 May 2022 08:58:57 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138
AM CDT Wed May 04 2022
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO...
...Synopsis...
A broad upper-level trough across the Four Corners and central Rockies
will move eastward into the central/southern Plains today. A surface
cyclone will deepen in eastern New Mexico. Fire weather concerns will
be focused across New Mexico.
...New Mexico into West Texas...
Strong surface winds are expected to develop behind a composite
front/dryline in West Texas. Winds of 20-25 mph are probable across
much southern, central, and northeastern New Mexico. RH of 10-15% will
be common, but locally 5-10% is possible. Critical conditions may
extend into parts of the Texas Panhandle and South Plains at least
briefly. With modest uncertainty in the dryline position and possible
South Plains precipitation this morning, Elevated highlights will be
maintained in these areas.
..Wendt.. 05/04/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Wed, 04 May 2022 06:39:27 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139
AM CDT Wed May 04 2022
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...Synopsis...
Shortwave ridging aloft will be present across the Southwest on
Thursday. Broadly cyclonic flow will move into parts of the Northwest.
A strong mid-level jet will exist across the Sierra into the Great
Basin by late afternoon. At the surface, modest flow aloft across the
southern Rockies may deepen a surface trough in eastern New Mexico.
Similarly, weak surface troughing is expected in the central Great
Basin.
...Central New Mexico...
A spatially limited area of Elevated fire weather is possible as
surface winds increase in response to the weak lee trough. Winds of
15-20 mph are expected along with 10-15% RH. It is possible locally
Critical conditions could develop where terrain-enhanced winds exceed
20 mph.
...Southern Nevada...
Strong heating in the region could bring temperatures into the 80s to
near 90 F. Given the weak surface trough, it is not clear how
widespread 15-20 mph winds will be. RH will likely fall to near 10%,
however. Locally elevated conditions are possible.
..Wendt.. 05/04/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Wed, 04 May 2022 06:41:30 +0000
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