| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 05.05.22 19:00z 418 Lines 18387 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6477_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 05-MAY.22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<ON0AR<GB7CIP<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 220505/1731Z 6477@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
powered by FreeBSD
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Thu, 05 May 2022
08:57:02 +0000 Thu, 05 May 2022 08:57:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC Tornado Watch 180 WW 180 TORNADO OK TX 050235Z - 050900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 180 NWS
Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 935 PM CDT Wed May 4 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern into east central Oklahoma Northwest Texas
* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 935 PM
until 400 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter likely
SUMMARY...Earlier supercells will slowly congeal into clusters and
line segments along a slow-moving front across Oklahoma, while more
isolated storms farther south in northwest Texas persist for another
couple of hours before weakening. There will be a threat for
tornadoes, and an isolated strong tornado in the short term, with
lingering supercells and circulations embedded in the developing
clusters/line segments. Otherwise, the threat for large hail will
persist overnight, and the threat for damaging winds should increase
over the next few hours.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
north and south of a line from 65 miles southwest of Altus OK to 15
miles north northeast of Poteau OK. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...This tornado watch replaces tornado watch
number 176...tornado watch number 177...tornado watch number 178.
Watch number 176 177 178 will not be in effect after 935 PM CDT.
CONTINUE...WW 179...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface
and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion
vector 25035.
...Thompson
Read more
Thu, 05 May 2022 06:05:02 +0000
SPC Tornado Watch 180 Status Reports WW 0180 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 180
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..05/05/22
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...SJT...FWD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 180
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC001-005-013-015-019-021-027-029-031-033-049-051-061-063-065-
067-069-075-077-079-085-087-091-095-099-101-107-111-121-123-125-
127-133-135-137-141-145-050740-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN CADDO
CARTER CHEROKEE CLEVELAND COAL
COMANCHE COTTON GARVIN GRADY HASKELL
HUGHES JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSTON
KIOWA LATIMER LE FLORE LOVE MCCLAIN
MCINTOSH MARSHALL MURRAY MUSKOGEE
OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC
POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH
STEPHENS TILLMAN WAGONER
TXC009-023-077-155-197-207-237-275-337-447-485-487-503-050740-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
Read more
Thu, 05 May 2022 06:05:03 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Thu May 5 08:57:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu May 5
08:57:02 UTC 2022. Thu, 05 May 2022 08:56:05 +0000
SPC May 5, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM
CDT Thu May 05 2022
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX...NORTHWEST LA...MUCH OF AR...FAR SOUTHEAST OK...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely today across parts of the southern
Plains, Arklatex, Ozarks and lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Damaging
wind, hail and a few tornadoes are expected. Isolated severe storms
are also possible into the Tennessee Valley.
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level low is forecast to move from western KS eastward
toward the Ozark Plateau by Friday morning. In conjunction with this
feature, a surface low is forecast to move from TX northeastward
toward the mid MS Valley, and a cold front will move through parts of
the southern Plains and eventually into the Ark-La-Miss region.
...TX northeastward toward the lower/mid MS Valley...
Extensive convection may be ongoing this morning from parts of TX into
AR and southeast OK. Uncertainty remains regarding convective
evolution through the day, with potential for early-day storms to
persist/intensify through the morning, but also some potential for
early activity to diminish and then redevelop along the cold front
and/or remnant outflow boundary later. In either case, a corridor of
organized convection is expected to evolve by early afternoon from
central TX into parts of AR, as large-scale ascent associated with the
mid/upper-level low overspreads a moist and unstable environment.
MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg and 40-50 kt of effective shear across the
warm sector will support organized storms. A mostly cluster or linear
mode is expected with convection mostly being focused along the
front/outflow, resulting in a primary threat of damaging wind gusts.
However, embedded supercells will also be possible, which could pose a
threat of hail and a few tornadoes.
...Southeast MO into western KY and western/middle TN...
A warm front is forecast to move northward across the region later
today, possibly accompanied by a weak frontal wave. Moderate
instability and sufficient deep-layer flow/shear will support the
potential for isolated supercells near and south of the warm front
during the afternoon, if early-day convection does not become too
disruptive across this region. Any supercell near the warm front would
pose a risk for large hail and a tornado or two.
...Southeast KS/Northeast OK/Southwest MO/Far northwest AR...
The primary midlevel vorticity maximum will move through northern OK
and southern KS during the afternoon, in conjunction with the synoptic
cold front. Moisture return into this region will likely be disrupted
by extensive convection to the south/southeast, with little
opportunity for diurnal heating/destabilization. However, steep
midlevel lapse rates may support a few strong storms capable of hail
and gusty winds, especially if heating across this region is stronger
than currently anticipated.
..Dean/Wendt.. 05/05/2022
Read more
Thu, 05 May 2022 06:00:07 +0000
SPC May 5, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM
CDT Thu May 05 2022
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Southeast States,
Middle Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic States on Friday. Some storms may
be strong enough to produce hail and damaging wind gusts. A few
tornadoes are also possible.
...Synopsis...
A maturing southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move across
northeastward across mid MS Valley and OH Valley on Friday. Enhanced
mid-level flow will persist throughout the base of this shortwave,
beginning the period extended from southern Plains eastward into the
TN Valley and Southeast before expanding eastward into the
Mid-Atlantic throughout the day.
An occluded surface low associated with this shortwave will likely
begin the day over IL before further occluding throughout the day as
it moves gradually eastward across the OH Valley. Secondary surface
low development is likely along the triple point over KY, with the
resulting low tracking eastward into VA. Thunderstorms are expected
along and ahead the cold front extending from this triple
point/secondary low as it moves eastward across the Southeast and TN
Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.
...TN Valley/Southeast...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Friday morning from Middle TN
southwestward into the Lower MS Valley. These storms will likely be
along an eastward-progressing outflow boundary preceding the cold
front. General expectation is for these storms to be largely
sub-severe during the early morning. However, increasing large-scale
forcing for ascent (attendant to a perturbation moving through the
base of the shortwave trough) as well as quick downstream airmass
destabilization amid diurnal heating should lead to a reinvigoration
of the convective line as it moves across eastern TN, AL and GA during
the afternoon.
A predominantly multicellular mode is anticipated initially, but some
upscale growth into one or more line segments is possible. Low-level
flow will likely be veered throughout much of the region, but enhanced
mid-level flow will still support occasional updraft organization and
the potential for embedded supercells. Primary severe threat will be
damaging wind gusts, but some hail is also possible particular as a
result of cell mergers. A few tornadoes could also occur.
...NC/VA...
Low 60s dewpoints will likely be in place across much of NC early
Friday morning, with higher values near the coast. This moist air mass
is forecast advect northward throughout the day amid the southerly
low-level flow ahead of the approaching outflow, with the northern
extent of this better moisture acting as an effective warm front.
Isolated thunderstorm development along this warm front is possible,
where wind profiles support supercells. Damaging wind gusts and a
tornado or two are possible with these storms if updrafts can mature.
After this initial isolated threat, more widespread thunderstorm
development is possible as the outflow moves into the region amid mid
60s dewpoints and moderate buoyancy. Damaging wind gusts within any
more organized bowing segments are the primary severe risk.
...Middle OH Valley...
Early morning thunderstorms are possible across KY, but more
widespread thunderstorm coverage is expected during the afternoon and
evening near the primary surface low and occluded front. Expectation
is for the airmass to destabilize behind the leading convective
outflow, with this destabilization fostered by cold mid-level
temperatures. Hail will be the primary risk with initial development.
Thereafter, a trend toward bowing line segments favors damaging wind
gusts.
..Mosier.. 05/05/2022
Read more
Thu, 05 May 2022 06:03:48 +0000
SPC May 5, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM
CDT Thu May 05 2022
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
South Dakota and Nebraska Saturday evening and overnight.
...Synopsis...
Mature shortwave trough/mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to begin the
day over the Upper OH Valley before gradually moving eastward and
eventually move off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast. Cold front
associated with this system will likely extend from a weak surface low
over southeast VA southwestward back across the central Carolinas into
southeast GA. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible within the
moist environment preceding this front as it moves eastward.
Farther west, several shortwave troughs will likely move through the
broadly cyclonic flow aloft extending the Pacific Northeast into the
northern Plains. Gradual eastward progression of this parent upper
troughing will help spread strong mid-level flow eastward into the
Plains, contributing to deepening of the surface lee troughing.
Increased southerly winds will help advect moisture northward, with
low 60s dewpoints probable across KS and mid 50s dewpoints into NE.
Upslope flow augmented by the ascent attendant to a shortwave rotating
through the parent trough and convergence along the lee trough may
help initiate high-based thunderstorms across western SD and the NE
Panhandle during the late afternoon/early evening Saturday. Some
strengthening/organization of these storms is possible as they move
eastward/southeastward into a persistent low-level jet and additional
low-level moistening. Higher severe probabilities may be needed in
later outlooks but the mesoscale nature of the storm development and
organization merits keeping probabilities low with this outlook.
..Mosier.. 05/05/2022
Read more
Thu, 05 May 2022 07:27:01 +0000
SPC May 5, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354
AM CDT Thu May 05 2022
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that the overall upper
pattern amplifies significantly on D4/Sunday and D5/Monday as western
CONUS troughing deepens and upper ridging along the MS Valley builds.
Position of the upper trough leads to deep southwesterly flow aloft
across the Plains. At the same time, strong moisture advection will
occur, with mid 60s dewpoints reaching eastern KS by D4/Sunday and
into much of IA by D5/Monday. By D6/Tuesday, a large area of 70+
dewpoints may exist from the Arklatex north into IA.
This low-level moisture, coupled with the EML fostered by the deep
southwesterly flow aloft, is forecast to result in strong instability
across at least some portion of the Plains and/or Upper/Mid MS Valley
from D4/Sunday through at least D6/Tuesday. The somewhat stagnant
upper pattern and lack of progressive surface features leads to dearth
of forcing for ascent for D4/Sunday, leading to predictability issues.
Some elevated thunderstorms are possible across the northern Plains,
but uncertainty on location and overall severity merit precluding any
outlook areas. Somewhat more discernible/predictable surface features
are expected on D5/Monday, with a front moving into the upper MS
Valley. Given the forecast buoyancy and shear, any storms that do
develop will likely be severe.
Some severe potential may persist across the Upper/Mid MS Valley on
D6/Tuesday, but guidance varies crucially on the position of various
surface features, limiting predictability. Additionally, guidance
indicates that upper ridging will build west across more of the Plains
on D6/Tuesday and D7/Wednesday, likely shifting the potential for
storms back west towards the High Plains.
Read more
Thu, 05 May 2022 08:56:57 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226
AM CDT Thu May 05 2022
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...Synopsis...
The central/southern Plains mid-level trough will continue its slow
progression eastward today. Across the West Coast, broadly cyclonic
flow will exist with a strong upper-level jet across the northern
Sierra. At the surface, fire weather concerns will be driven by weak
surface trough development in the Great Basin and in eastern New
Mexico.
...Central New Mexico...
Mid-level winds will be decreasing during the day. However, they will
be sufficient to induce a weak lee trough in the eastern plains. Winds
of 15-20 mph with perhaps some higher speeds in terrain-favored areas.
Dry air will once again be present with afternoon RH falling to
10-15%.
...Southern Nevada...
Temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s F will support afternoon RH
of 10-20% across much of Nevada. A weak surface trough in the Great
Basin will promote 15-20 mph winds. Elevated fire weather concerns
will exist where fuels have sufficiently dried.
..Wendt.. 05/05/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Thu, 05 May 2022 05:27:26 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227
AM CDT Thu May 05 2022
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Low-amplitude ridging will develop over the Southwest on Friday. The
broad western trough will shift east with time, increasing flow across
the Divide. At the surface, the pressure pattern will generally remain
weak over areas of dry fuels.
...New Mexico...
Locally elevated conditions are possible. Dry air will remain in place
and RH will fall to 5-15% during the afternoon. Surface winds are
expected to be weaker than on Thursday as are mid-level winds. 15-20
mph winds would be most likely around wind-prone terrain features.
...Colorado...
The surface pressure pattern in addition to the mid-level winds across
the Divide may be enough to bring gusty winds to parts of the Front
Range. Most guidance shows 10-20% RH during the afternoon, but varies
on the wind speeds. Even with 15-20 mph possible in places, some
recent rainfall has reduced some fuel receptiveness enough to preclude
highlights. Localized concerns are possible, however.
..Wendt.. 05/05/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Thu, 05 May 2022 05:28:25 +0000
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
FREEBSD - BBS - PACKET
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
