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LU9DCE > ALERT 14.04.19 07:03z 316 Lines 16272 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 14 04
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Sent: 190414/0701Z 21374@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SOPORTE TECNICO - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
WW 57 TORNADO AL TN 140600Z - 141400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 57 NWS
Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 100 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Alabama Southern middle
and southeastern Tennessee
* Effective this Sunday morning from 100 AM until 900 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...This watch wraps around northern and eastern sides of
tornado watch 55, per coordination with affected local NWS offices.
A band of severe thunderstorms may pose a continuing risk of wind
damage and sporadic tornadoes as it moves across the new watch area
through the pre-dawn hours. See SPC mesoscale discussion 333 for
initial meteorological reasoning.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
east and west of a line from 5 miles south southwest of Montgomery
AL to 70 miles north northeast of Huntsville AL. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 55...WW 56...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface
and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to
60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm
motion vector 24035.
...Edwards
WW 56 TORNADO AL LA MS CW 140230Z - 141000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 56 NWS
Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 930 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest Alabama Eastern Louisiana
Southeast Mississippi Coastal Waters
* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 930 PM
until 500 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Scattered
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events
to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Storms should continue to intensify and otherwise spread
east-northeastward through the overnight across the region. An
increasingly moist air mass along with strong deep-layer/low-level
shear will support a tornado risk along with damaging winds.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
north and south of a line from 25 miles west northwest of Slidell
LA to 85 miles northeast of Mobile AL. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 55...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface
and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts
to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm
motion vector 24035.
...Guyer
WW 55 TORNADO AL MS 140010Z - 140800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 55 NWS
Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 710 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Northern and central Alabama
Eastern Mississippi
* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 710 PM
until 300 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple
intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70
mph likely Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter
possible
SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop and potentially
increase through late evening across eastern Mississippi into
northern/central portions of Alabama, with the most intense storms
favoring a sub-regional area near a warm front where low-level
shear is maximized. This will include the potential for a few
semi-discrete supercells, although a mixed convective mode is most
likely. Tornadoes will be possible, a couple of which could be
strong, aside from damaging winds and possibly hail.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
north and south of a line from 55 miles northwest of Meridian MS
to 20 miles northeast of Birmingham AL. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 54...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 22035.
...Guyer
WW 0057 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0057 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0056 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 56
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW GPT TO
30 SE PIB TO 30 SSE MEI.
..COOK..04/14/19
ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 56
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-023-025-097-099-129-131-140740-
AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN CHOCTAW CLARKE MOBILE
MONROE WASHINGTON WILCOX
MSC039-041-047-059-111-131-153-140740-
MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEORGE GREENE HARRISON JACKSON
PERRY STONE WAYNE
GMZ532-630-631-632-140740-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
WW 0055 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 55
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE PIB TO
15 N MEI TO 5 E CBM TO 30 NW MSL.
..COOK..04/14/19
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 55
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC007-009-033-043-057-059-063-065-073-075-077-079-083-089-091-
093-095-103-105-107-117-119-125-127-133-140740-
AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIBB BLOUNT COLBERT CULLMAN
FAYETTE FRANKLIN GREENE HALE
JEFFERSON LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE
MADISON MARENGO MARION MARSHALL
MORGAN PERRY PICKENS SHELBY SUMTER
TUSCALOOSA WALKER WINSTON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN
OK 1122 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2019
...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the lower Mississippi
Valley into east TX this afternoon and tonight...
* LOCATIONS... Louisiana Mississippi East Texas Far southern
Arkansas Western Alabama
* HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread damaging
winds Scattered large hail, some baseball size
* SUMMARY... Numerous to widespread severe thunderstorms are
expected across parts of the south-central to southeast states
through tonight. The most likely region for strong tornadoes is
from east Texas to Mississippi, with the most dangerous period for
tornadoes being between about 2 to 8 PM CDT.
Preparedness actions...
Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch
means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the
next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area,
move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room
on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101
AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS
OF THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are forecast today in parts
of the Ohio Valley southward through the southern Appalachians
and northeast Gulf Coast. Severe thunderstorms are possible this
evening/tonight east of the Appalachians from the Carolina Piedmont
northward into parts of the Mid-Atlantic states.
...Synopsis... Maturing mid-latitude cyclone currently moving
across the southern Plains is expected to become more progressive
today as it moves northeastward through the middle MS Valley and
into the Lower OH Valley. Strong flow aloft accompanying the system
will spread eastward ahead of the upper trough, extending from the
southeast through the TN Valley at midday and across the Mid-Atlantic
states by this evening.
Surface cyclone attendant to the upper system is expected to move
quickly northeastward as well, moving through the OH valley by
midday and through much of the Northeast by the end of the period.
Severe threat appears to be in two somewhat discrete regimes, one
associated with the ongoing storms across the Southeast within the
warm conveyor and the other associated more closely with the surface
low and stronger large-scale forcing for ascent accompanying the
parent upper trough.
...Eastern AL...GA...SC... A line of thunderstorms will likely be
ongoing at the beginning of the period across eastern AL or perhaps
as far east as western GA. With the forcing for ascent (both
associated with the parent upper trough and surface low) shifting
northeastward, the expectation is for much of this convection to
be waning, supported predominantly by a moist low-level air mass
and modest convergence along the outflow. Even so, vertical shear
will remain strong and few of the more persistent storms may be
able to produce damaging wind gusts through the late afternoon.
...OH Valley...Central Appalachians...Northern Mid-Atlantic...
Temperatures across the lower/middle OH Valley will be cool at the
beginning of the period but strong warm advection is expected to
result in air mass destabilization across the central OH Valley ahead
of the approaching surface low. By mid-afternoon, temperatures are
expected to be in the mid 60s with dewpoints in the upper 50s/low
60s. Instability will be somewhat tempered across the middle OH
Valley but is still expected to be sufficient for thunderstorm
development. Strong low to mid-level flow will contribute to a risk
for damaging wind gusts and isolated hail. Warmer temperatures
are expected with eastern extent and the general expectation is
for storms to gradually strengthen as they move eastward across
OH and into WV and PA. The loss of diurnal heating could lead to a
short-term weakening of the storms during the early evening but this
weakening will likely be compensated by a strengthening low-level
jet as well as increased large-scale forcing for ascent. As a result,
a modestly organized convective line appears possible as the storms
move across the central Appalachians.
Damaging wind gusts appear to the primary severe threat. However,
a strengthening low-level jet and the resulting vertically veering
wind profiles could support a few embedded tornadoes.
..Mosier/Bentley.. 04/14/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242
AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. Monday.
...Discussion... As eastern U.S. upper troughing continues to shift
toward/off the coast and into the western Atlantic, the next upper
system is progged to move inland from the eastern Pacific into the
western states. By the end of the period, the eastern trough will
linger only across New England, while the western system will across
the Pacific Northwest and California.
At the surface, the eastern cold front, largely offshore by the
start of the period, should clear the New England and Florida coasts
through midday. Showers and a few lingering thunderstorms will
likewise move off the coast early in the period. In the West, a cold
front will advance inland, reaching/crossing the Great Basin through
latter stages of the period. Along with sporadic lighting across
parts of the Intermountain region ahead of this feature, elevated,
warm-advection-induced convection -- including some lightning -- may
evolve late in the period over portions of the Mid Missouri valley
and Upper Midwest late/overnight. No severe weather is expected.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Goss.. 04/14/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...Synopsis... A weak shortwave embedded within mostly zonal flow
across the western CONUS on Saturday will lead to weak lee troughing
in eastern Colorado. The strengthening surface pressure gradient
associated with this lee troughing in combination with downward
momentum transfer of stronger mid-level winds due to deep mixing
will lead to 15 to 20 mph winds across most of northern Arizona
and New Mexico. In addition. Relative humidities are expected
to be in the 12 to 18 percent range in most of this area. Recent
precipitation across this area will limit fire weather potential
somewhat, but critical relative humidities provide enough concern
to have an elevated area highlighted for Sunday.
..Bentley.. 04/14/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...Synopsis... On Monday, a longwave upper-level trough will
begin to amplify in the western CONUS. Strengthening southwesterly
mid-level flow and few weak mid-level shortwave troughs moving
through the area will lead to weak lee cyclogenesis in eastern
Colorado and western Kansas. This will lead to strengthening
surface winds across much of the Southwest and southern High
Plains. Winds and relative humidities will support at least an
elevated fire weather threat with the potential for some locally
critical conditions. The most likely location for critical conditions
will be in northeast New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle, but some
of that area has received rainfall recently, so the fuel dryness
remains questionable. Therefore, the forecast remains elevated
at this time, but may need to be upgraded to critical at a later
time if fuel dryness is indeed supportive of large fires and the
forecast winds and relative humidities remain on track.
..Bentley.. 04/14/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Having nothing, nothing can he lose.
-- William Shakespeare, "Henry VI"
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