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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Fri, 06 May 2022
19:16:01 +0000 Fri, 06 May 2022 19:16:01 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC Tornado Watch 187 WW 187 TORNADO NC VA WV CW 061830Z -
070200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 187 NWS
Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 230 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
North Carolina Virginia Far Southern West Virginia Coastal Waters
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until
1000 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph
likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter
possible
SUMMARY...Supercell storms are expected to develop across the region
this afternoon, with the greatest severe-storm/tornado risk expected
to be located across northern North Carolina and southern Virginia
through early evening near a northward-shifting warm front.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 105 statute miles
north and south of a line from 45 miles northwest of Greensboro NC to
10 miles northeast of Elizabeth City NC. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 184...WW 185...WW 186...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface
and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to
60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm
motion vector 25030.
...Guyer
Read more
Fri, 06 May 2022 18:30:03 +0000
SPC Tornado Watch 186 WW 186 TORNADO GA KY NC SC TN VA WV
061740Z - 070000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 186 NWS
Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 140 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northern Georgia Southeast Kentucky Western North Carolina Upstate
South Carolina Eastern Tennessee Western Virginia Southern West
Virginia
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until
800 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph
likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Multiple corridors of severe storms will continue to develop
and intensify across the region, with damaging winds, some hail, and a
few tornadoes possible across the region.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 125 statute miles
east and west of a line from 65 miles east northeast of London KY to
25 miles west southwest of Anderson SC. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 184...WW 185...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface
and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to
60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm
motion vector 24030.
...Guyer
Read more
Fri, 06 May 2022 18:25:03 +0000
SPC Tornado Watch 185 WW 185 TORNADO AL FL GA CW 061655Z -
062300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 185 NWS
Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southeast Alabama Northern Florida Central and Southern Georgia
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM until
700 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph
likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...The air mass across the region should steadily moisten and
destabilize with a severe/tornado risk expanding north-northeastward
into Georgia through the afternoon. Tornadoes are possible aside from
damaging winds and hail.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles
north and south of a line from 45 miles southwest of Dothan AL to 60
miles north of Waycross GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see
the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 184...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface
and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to
60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm
motion vector 26035.
...Guyer
Read more
Fri, 06 May 2022 18:24:03 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 184 WW 184 SEVERE TSTM AL FL CW
061525Z - 062100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 184 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CDT Fri May 6
2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern Alabama Florida Panhandle Coastal Waters
* Effective this Friday morning and afternoon from 1025 AM until
400 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two
possible
SUMMARY...Severe storms will initially focus today across far southern
Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, with large hail and locally
damaging winds initially being the primary hazards.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles southwest of
Mobile AL to 15 miles south southeast of Marianna FL. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64
KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable
for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in
these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather
conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2
inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030.
...Guyer
Read more
Fri, 06 May 2022 18:24:04 +0000
SPC Tornado Watch 187 Status Reports WW 0187 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0187 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
Fri, 06 May 2022 18:30:05 +0000
SPC Tornado Watch 186 Status Reports WW 0186 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 186
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..LEITMAN..05/06/22
ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...JKL...RNK...MRX...CAE...OHX...RLX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 186
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
GAC011-047-085-105-111-119-123-137-139-147-187-213-227-241-257-
281-291-311-313-061940-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANKS CATOOSA DAWSON ELBERT
FANNIN FRANKLIN GILMER HABERSHAM
HALL HART LUMPKIN MURRAY PICKENS
RABUN STEPHENS TOWNS UNION
WHITE WHITFIELD
KYC013-025-051-071-095-109-119-121-125-131-133-147-189-193-195-
199-203-231-235-061940-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELL BREATHITT CLAY FLOYD
HARLAN JACKSON KNOTT KNOX
LAUREL LESLIE LETCHER MCCREARY OWSLEY
PERRY PIKE
Read more
Fri, 06 May 2022 18:25:03 +0000
SPC Tornado Watch 185 Status Reports WW 0185 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 185
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..LEITMAN..05/06/22
ATTN...WFO...BMX...TAE...JAX...FFC...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 185
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC005-031-045-061-067-069-081-113-061940-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBOUR COFFEE DALE GENEVA
HENRY HOUSTON LEE RUSSELL
FLC005-013-037-039-045-047-059-063-065-067-073-077-079-121-123-
129-131-133-061940-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN GADSDEN
GULF HAMILTON HOLMES JACKSON
JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON LIBERTY MADISON
SUWANNEE TAYLOR WAKULLA WALTON
WASHINGTON
GAC001-003-005-007-009-017-019-021-023-027-037-053-061-065-069-
071-075-079-081-087-091-093-095-099-101-107-125-131-141-145-153-
Read more
Fri, 06 May 2022 18:24:03 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 184 Status Reports WW 0184 Status
Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 184
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW PNS TO 25 W
PNS TO 20 SE CEW TO 35 SW PFN.
..LEITMAN..05/06/22
ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 184
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC091-061940-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
OKALOOSA
GMZ633-634-635-636-650-655-061940-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
PERDIDO BAY AREA
PENSACOLA BAY AREA INCLUDING SANTA ROSA SOUND
WESTERN CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY
EASTERN CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM OKALOOSA-WALTON COUNTY LINE TO PENSACOLA FL
Read more
Fri, 06 May 2022 18:24:04 +0000
SPC MD 675 MD 0675 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
FOR NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0675 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253
PM CDT Fri May 06 2022
Areas affected...Northern North Carolina and southern Virginia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 061753Z - 062000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered intensifying thunderstorm development is likely
through mid to late afternoon. This may include a few supercells with
the potential to produce tornadoes, in addition to severe hail, by 3-5
PM EDT.
DISCUSSION...Broad surface troughing to the lee of the southern
Appalachians is deepening, with a surface warm frontal zone becoming
better defined while advancing into a corridor extending from the
North Carolina Piedmont into the southeastern Virginia/northeastern
North Carolina Tidewater vicinity. Along and south of the frontal
zone, boundary-layer moistening (including surface dew points rising
through the upper 60s to around 70F) appears to be contributing to
moderately large CAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg with continued
insolation.
Forcing associated with a sheared lead mid-level impulse progressing
east of the the southern Appalachians has supported an arc of
deepening convective development and initiating thunderstorm
development across the North Carolina and South Carolina Piedmont.
This will continue to spread east-northeastward toward the southern
Mid Atlantic coastal plain through 19-21Z. Aided by ascent driven by
low-level warm advection, intensifying thunderstorm development
probably will focus along and immediately north of the warm frontal
zone, where deep-layer shear is becoming sufficient for supercells
beneath 30-50 kt west-southwesterly 500 mb flow.
Although southerly flow around 850 is somewhat modest in strength
(around 20-30 kt), low-level shear and ambient vertical vorticity
along the warm frontal zone may be sufficient to promote a risk for
tornadoes. Otherwise, stronger cells may be accompanied by a risk for
severe hail and locally strong surface gusts.
..Kerr/Guyer.. 05/06/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...GSP...
LAT...LON 37147685 35787604 35367952 35628107 36608055 37147685
Read more
Fri, 06 May 2022 17:54:03 +0000
SPC May 6, 2022 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1630Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM
CDT Fri May 06 2022
Valid 061630Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the
Southeast to Ohio Valley and Tidewater region today. Damaging winds,
hail and a few tornadoes are possible into this evening.
...Southeast States/southern Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic States...
Initially, severe storms will remain possible especially across far
southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle along an earlier
outflow-related effective boundary. Surface-based severe storm/tornado
potential will also increase over time to the north/northeast across
more of Georgia and north Florida, as this region steadily
moistens/recovers in the wake of an early morning squall line, and
ahead of an eastward-moving cold front. For additional short-term
details, see Mesoscale Discussion 672. With a further strengthening of
mid/high-level winds in association with the upstream vort/speed max,
deep-layer/low-level shear will support supercells and other organized
storm modes capable of damaging winds, large hail, and a few
tornadoes.
A regional maximized severe-weather/tornado potential is also expected
to focus across northern North Carolina and southern Virginia later
today in vicinity of a northward-shifting warm front and late-day
development secondary surface low. This potentially includes multiple
rounds of storms in some areas, including supercells and bowing
segments with damaging winds and tornadoes in addition to isolated
large hail, mostly in association with rotating storms.
..Guyer/Kerr.. 05/06/2022
Read more
Fri, 06 May 2022 16:35:13 +0000
SPC May 6, 2022 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 1730Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM
CDT Fri May 06 2022
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND
A SMALL PART OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central and
southern parts of the Florida Peninsula Saturday, as well as over
portions of South Dakota and Nebraska Saturday evening and overnight.
An isolated severe storm may occur over north-central Texas late in
the day.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will gradually weaken as it moves toward the East
Coast on Saturday, with moderate midlevel wind speed across FL around
the base of the trough. Low pressure will exist over eastern VA into
NC during the day, with westerly surface winds providing drying
conditions across SC, GA and northern FL. Strong heating and mid to
upper 60s F dewpoints will remain over the FL Peninsula, contributing
to isolated daytime storms.
To the west, a large-scale upper trough will expand across much of the
West, with tight midlevel thermal gradient from the Great Basin into
the northern Plains. Strong southwest flow aloft will exist from the
central Rockies into the northern Plains, with a deepening surface
trough along the length of the High Plains by 00Z. Southerly low-level
winds will maintain a narrow moist plume across the Plains, aided by a
50+ kt low-level jet overnight.
Elsewhere, a dryline will develop from central into northwest TX, with
hot and unstable conditions nearby.
...FL...
A west-east oriented line of showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing
Saturday morning as a weak boundary shifts south across the Peninsula.
Although low-level winds will be westerly, deep-layer shear may favor
strong to locally severe cells within the line, or support new
development as outflow propagates south. Strong heating will maintain
an uncapped air mass, and although dewpoints will likely mix lower,
instability will support marginal hail or wind gusts through
afternoon.
...NE and SD...
Strengthening southerly winds will result in low-level theta-e
advection across NE and into SD during the day, with good heating
across the western Dakotas and NE. Scattered storms are expected to
form after 21Z, with strong deep-layer shear supporting a hail and
wind threat through late evening. A capping inversion may play a role
in limiting severe storm coverage, but a categorical upgrade could be
needed in later outlooks as predictability increases. Isolated
supercells may occur within the narrow uncapped zone.
...A small part of north-central TX...
Very strong heating will lead to temperatures over 100 F along a
dryline, with low 70s F dewpoints within the moist plume to the east.
Convergence along the dryline and overall lift will be subtle but an
isolated storm or two cannot be ruled out during the peak heating
hours. MLCAPE will likely exceed 4000 J/kg, with generally weak shear
profiles. If a storm can form here, it will likely move very little,
and could locally produce damaging hail and perhaps a microburst.
..Jewell.. 05/06/2022
Read more
Fri, 06 May 2022 17:22:49 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136
AM CDT Fri May 06 2022
Valid 061700Z - 071200Z
The previous forecast remains valid with only minor adjustments. The
Elevated area across portions of the southern Great Basin was expanded
slightly northward to where higher confidence in sustained 15 mph
surface winds and lower surface RH exists. Otherwise, see the prior
discussions for additional information.
..Lyons.. 05/06/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Fri May 06 2022/
...Synopsis...
Stronger mid-level flow will gradually overspread the Rockies today as
a mid-level trough amplifies across the Interior West. Gradient winds
from a surface lee trough across the northern Rockies, along with
downslope flow across the Southwest, will promote dry and breezy
conditions supporting modest potential for wildfire spread.
...Northern Rockies...
Gradient surface flow will increase through the afternoon,
particularly across northern Montana, where a well-mixed boundary
layer will support RH at or just below 25 percent amid 20-30 mph
sustained westerly surface winds. Some of the latest forecast fuel
guidance suggests that regional ERCs may approach the 90th percentile
in spots. The dry and windy conditions atop fuels receptive to fire
spread warrant the introduction of Elevated highlights this outlook.
While precipitation is expected later in the evening, an isolated
thunderstorm could develop during the afternoon. Any lightning strikes
that occur away from storm cores, in windy conditions, and within a
drier fuel bed may easily support wildfire ignitions.
...Southwest into the southern High Plains...
Downslope flow amid a well-mixed boundary layer will encourage patches
of 15 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds across portions
of the Southwest. While the overall surface wind field is expected to
marginally support wildfire spread, RH is expected to drop into the
single digits on a near widespread basis, and where fuels are
critically dry. As such, an Elevated area was introduced where surface
winds will most likely exceed 15 mph on a more frequent basis.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Fri, 06 May 2022 16:38:26 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213
PM CDT Fri May 06 2022
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...Front Range and southeastern Colorado...
Recent guidance has trended drier and windier across much of eastern
CO and the Front range behind a strengthening lee low and accompanying
surface trough. Hi-Res and ensemble guidance now suggest widespread
winds of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% are likely into the lee of the
central Rockies. Despite some concerns with recent rainfall and
greening fuels over this area, ongoing seasonal moisture deficits
suggest fuels overall remain receptive to fire starts/spread. The
potential for critical fire weather conditions appears likely enough
to warrant an extension of the Critical area northward across much of
eastern/southeastern CO.
Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains valid with only minor
adjustments for the latest High-Res guidance. Please see the previous
discussion for more information.
..Lyons.. 05/06/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Fri May 06 2022/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will further amplify while traversing the southern
Rockies tomorrow/Saturday, with stronger mid-level flow overspreading
a dry boundary layer across the Southwest into the southern High
Plains. The surface mass response will be cyclone development across
the central High Plains, leading to widespread 20+ mph sustained
west-southwesterly winds across much of Arizona into New Mexico,
eastern Colorado, and western Texas, delineated by Elevated
highlights. Critical highlights have also been introduced where
confidence is highest in stronger winds coinciding with single-digit
RH for several hours atop critically dry fuels. Expansion of Critical
highlights may be needed in later outlooks across Texas and southeast
Colorado if stronger surface winds become evident in future guidance.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Fri, 06 May 2022 19:15:26 +0000
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