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LU9DCE > ALERT 07.05.22 19:00z 302 Lines 13810 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 07-MAY.22
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Sent: 220507/1831Z 6553@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Sat, 07 May 2022
09:04:02 +0000 Sat, 07 May 2022 09:04:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Sat May 7 09:04:02 UTC 2022 No
watches are valid as of Sat May 7 09:04:02 UTC 2022. Sat, 07
May 2022 09:03:06 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sat May 7 09:04:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat May 7
09:04:02 UTC 2022. Sat, 07 May 2022 09:03:05 +0000
SPC May 7, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM
CDT Sat May 07 2022
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and isolated damaging
wind are possible across western and central Nebraska, mainly this
evening and tonight. Other isolated severe storms are possible across
parts of the Dakotas, north and central Texas, and the Florida
Peninsula.
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level low and an associated surface cyclone are forecast
to move slowly southeastward today, moving off of the Mid Atlantic
coast later tonight. A cold front will move into the FL Peninsula and
northern Gulf of Mexico during the day today, before becoming nearly
stationary by Sunday morning. Meanwhile, a deep longwave upper trough
will continue to become established across the western CONUS, as a
prominent embedded shortwave trough and attendant surface cyclone move
across the northern Rockies/High Plains into the Canadian Prairies by
this evening.
...Dakotas into Nebraska...
Modest low-level moisture (dewpoints generally in the 50s F) will
return to parts of the Dakotas by this afternoon, in advance of a cold
front. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support the development of
moderate buoyancy, though MLCINH is forecast to remain strong across
much of the warm sector. The best chance for isolated surface-based
development appears to be across western/central ND, in closer
proximity to the ejecting midlevel shortwave trough, though late
afternoon development cannot be ruled out across parts of SD/NE.
Strong deep-layer shear will support a threat of hail and isolated
severe gusts with any cells that develop during the late
afternoon/early evening.
Later this evening, vigorous elevated convection is expected to
develop across parts of western/central NE, as richer moisture returns
in conjunction with a strengthening low-level jet. Deep-layer shear
will continue to support organized storms, and most CAM guidance
suggests the potential for a few elevated supercells from late evening
into the overnight hours. Large hail should be the primary initial
threat in this regime. Some upscale growth is expected as this
convection moves eastward, though substantial low-level stability
downstream may tend to limit the severe wind risk.
A Slight Risk has been added across western/central Nebraska, due to
the potential for isolated surface-based storms through early evening,
followed by a greater coverage of strong elevated storms overnight.
Parts of the Dakotas may eventually require an upgrade as well, if
confidence in sufficient storm coverage increases across that area.
...Florida...
A few strong storms may be ongoing at the start of the period near the
front across the FL Peninsula, within an environment characterized by
moderate buoyancy and deep-layer shear. Isolated hail and damaging
gusts will be possible as these storms generally spread southward
through the day, with a gradual weakening trend expected by evening.
...Parts of north and central TX...
Extreme buoyancy (MLCAPE > 4000 J/kg) is expected to develop this
afternoon across parts of north and central TX. Strong heating may
allow for a narrow corridor near the dryline where convective
inhibition substantially weakens by late afternoon. Large-scale ascent
is expected to remain negligible across the region, but initiation of
one or two storms (as depicted by the 00Z NAM Nest and NSSL ARW) near
the dryline cannot be ruled out. Deep-layer shear will remain weak,
but the magnitude of instability will support a risk of hail and
localized downbursts should initiation occur.
..Dean/Squitieri.. 05/07/2022
Read more
Sat, 07 May 2022 06:03:07 +0000
SPC May 7, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0600Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM
CDT Sat May 07 2022
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm risk on Sunday appears minimal across the CONUS at
this time.
...Discussion...
A stagnant/quasi-stationary large-scale upper flow pattern will
persist across the U.S. Sunday. In the East, a trough/weak low is
expected to linger near the East Coast. Meanwhile, broad cyclonic
flow will remain in place over the entire western half of the country.
At smaller scales, multiple small disturbances moving through the
cyclonic flow will support primarily diurnal showers and occasional
lightning strikes, from the Pacific Northwest to the north-central
States.
Meager instability is forecast across the West, which will hinder any
appreciable threat for severe storms. Meanwhile, over the Plains,
capping -- associated with persistent northeastward advection of an
elevated mixed layer -- will preclude thunder in most areas south of
Nebraska. One exception may be across the north-central Texas
vicinity, where strong diurnal heating/mixing may weaken/mix out the
cap sufficiently to allow a late afternoon storm or two to develop.
Otherwise, most thunderstorm activity across the north-central U.S.
is progged to remain elevated, within a warm-advection regime north of
a southwest-to-northeast-oriented central Plains baroclinic zone.
Modulated by the diurnal low-level jet cycle, clusters of elevated
storms are expected -- with a decaying round of convection shifting
into the upper Mississippi Valley region during the first half of the
period, some weak/diurnal convection over the Dakotas during the
afternoon, and then a second low-level-jet-induced round of overnight
convection from eastern Wyoming eastward across Nebraska and South
Dakota. While a stronger storm may occasionally evolve, any severe
risk appears too low to highlight with an outlook area at this time.
..Goss.. 05/07/2022
Read more
Sat, 07 May 2022 06:04:53 +0000
SPC May 7, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM
CDT Sat May 07 2022
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY VICINITY...
...SUMMARY...
A few elevated, hail-producing storms may develop Monday night across
parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity.
...Synopsis...
Little overall change to the broader upper flow pattern over the U.S.
is expected Monday, with troughing persisting over the West, and a low
near/off the East Coast. In between, ridging will prevail from the
southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward to eastern
Canada.
At the surface, high pressure will prevail east of the Mississippi,
while a northeast-to-southwest baroclinic zone remains from the Upper
Great Lakes region southwestward across the Plains to the Desert
Southwest.
...Portions of the southern Minnesota/Wisconsin/Iowa area...
As a southwesterly low-level jet develops across the Plains Monday
night, agreement across various models exists that strong/elevated
storms -- and possibly a couple of severe-hail-producing cells -- may
develop across the Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity. This region is
progged to lie to the northeast of a Kansas frontal wave, with warm
advection/ascent occurring near/north of the warm front which should
lie across the Iowa/Wisconsin vicinity. With very steep lapse rates
aloft contributing to strong elevated CAPE, and 30 to 40 kt mid-level
southwesterly flow across this area, risk for hail appears sufficient
to warrant inclusion of a 5%/MRGL risk area at this time.
..Goss.. 05/07/2022
Read more
Sat, 07 May 2022 07:53:05 +0000
SPC May 7, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401
AM CDT Sat May 07 2022
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Complex evolution of a western U.S. trough is expected to occur
through the medium-range period. Model differences become
increasingly apparent with time as the system shifts slowly eastward
across the western and into the central U.S. through the period. This
complexity and the associated differences in solutions from the
various models hint at low predictability and thus a lack of
confidence in areally highlighting areas of severe-weather potential.
On Day 4/Tuesday, while the trough remains over the West, ridging over
the Plains should limit convection/severe risk overall. Some risk is
evident over the upper Mississippi Valley area once again, near a
surface baroclinic zone progged to continue lingering across the area.
Once again, the most likely scenario would be with storms to the cool
side of the boundary, given warm-sector capping. At this time, risk
does not appear sufficient to warrant an areal highlight.
Slightly greater risk may evolve however over the southern High Plains
vicinity. Here, models forecast that a subtle cyclonic disturbance
will move northeastward out of Mexico, contributing to ascent along a
dryline likely to evolve as another day of strong heating/mixing is
expected across the region. Though deep-layer shear may remain a bit
marginal, moderate, high-based CAPE should be sufficient for a few
stronger storms -- and some/associated wind/hail risk.
Beyond Day 4, a gradual/piecemeal eastward advance of the western U.S.
upper system is expected. While areas of increased severe-weather
potential will likely accompany the system's advance, at this time
will not attempt to highlight any specific areas of heightened risk.
Read more
Sat, 07 May 2022 09:03:58 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159
AM CDT Sat May 07 2022
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
The first in a series of active fire weather days is expected to
unfold across the Southwest into the southern High Plains today. A
broad upper trough will gradually amplify across the western CONUS,
and surface low development will occur over the central High Plains
this afternoon. Gradient flow and downward momentum transport support
widespread 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds, from the
Nevada/Arizona border into the southern High Plains. 5-15 percent RH
will coincide with this strong wind field for several hours during the
afternoon, warranting the introduction of fire weather highlights.
Critical highlights are in place where the aforementioned surface
winds/RH will overlap with critically dry fuels (i.e. forecast ERCs
approaching or exceeding the 90th percentile).
..Squitieri.. 05/07/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Sat, 07 May 2022 07:01:28 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205
AM CDT Sat May 07 2022
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
The next and perhaps more potent round in a series of significant fire
weather days will take place tomorrow/Sunday across the Southwest into
the southern High Plains as the western U.S. upper trough further
amplifies and overspreads the Southwest with 60-80 kt mid-level flow.
The surface mass response will be the development of another cyclone
across the southern High Plains, with widespread 25-35 mph sustained
westerly surface winds (and higher gusts) coinciding with 5-15 percent
RH tomorrow afternoon. Critical highlights have been introduced across
much of New Mexico into the southern High Plains, where the very
dry/windy conditions will overlap with critically dry fuels. Given the
anomalously dry fuels amid an exceptional drought and the very strong
winds/gusts, at least locally Extremely Critical conditions are
expected. The Critical highlights introduced this outlook are
considered high-end. An Extremely Critical area may be delineated in
future outlooks if a coherent area of overlapping 30+ mph winds, under
10 percent RH, and the driest fuels becomes evident.
..Squitieri.. 05/07/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Sat, 07 May 2022 07:06:26 +0000
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